CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE HARDENING: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense confirms the first deployment of organic Electronic Warfare (EW) suites by energy and defense industry operators to protect fixed sites (1245Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE DEFENSIVE STRAIN: Ukrainian monitoring groups report that while UAF holds most of the city, the local terrain is increasingly unfavorable for sustained defense against current RF pressure (1254Z, DeepState, HIGH).
ENERGY RESTORATION TIMELINE: Ukrainian Ministry of Energy assesses a minimum of two months for full grid restoration, provided all kinetic strikes cease immediately (1236Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
COMMAND CASUALTY CLAIM: Pro-RF sources claim the liquidation of Ukrainian command staff in the Kostiantynivka direction. (1256Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW). UNCONFIRMED.
GERMAN AID REDUCTION: German defense exports to Ukraine in 2025 reportedly fell sevenfold to €1.14 billion (1240Z, TASS/DPA, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Axis (Lyman/Kostiantynivka/Sloviansk):
Lyman: RF "Western" Group of Forces has secured Dibrova. This move is intended to "pinch" Krasnyi Lyman from the south, complicating UAF logistics across the Siverskyi Donets (1302Z).
Kostiantynivka: High intensity of RF drone activity. Footage confirms strikes on UAF armored personnel carriers and soft-skinned vehicles (1301Z, NM DNR).
Sloviansk: UAF "Apachi" drone units are actively targeting RF logistics to slow the momentum of the current RF offensive (1301Z, Sternenko).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
Huliaipole: Tactical situation is deteriorating due to unfavorable geography. Defensive positions are becoming untenable under concentrated RF fire, though no major withdrawal has been authorized (1254Z).
Rear Area Security: FSB has intensified counter-sabotage operations in occupied Zaporizhzhia, issuing a 27-year sentence for an alleged "terrorist" plot, indicating a high-friction internal security environment (1304Z, Mash).
Northern Axis (Kupyansk):
Static but high-intensity fighting continues. RF sources confirm the "Western" Group is heavily engaged but report no significant territorial shifts in the last hour (1302Z).
Rear Areas (Kyiv/Strategic):
Kyivshchyna: Vyshhorod district enters its third day without power, affecting 9,000 households. This indicates that damage to the regional distribution network is more "sticky" than initially assessed (1259Z, DTEK).
AA Defenses: UAF continues to employ improvised "Maxim" machine gun mounts for cost-effective point defense against Geran/Shahed-type UAVs (1252Z, Ops ZSU).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Envelopment: The RF capture of Dibrova signals a shift from frontal assaults to an operational-level bypass of Lyman's southern flank.
Domestic Control: Reports of potential mobile internet shutdowns in Moscow for the New Year period (1246Z) suggest the RF is bracing for internal unrest or attempting to prevent the coordination of Ukrainian deep strikes/SOF activity during the holiday.
Logistics Targeting: RF continues to prioritize UAF transport in the Donbas tactical rear to "starve" frontline units of ammunition and rotations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Adaptation: The decentralization of EW (moving from purely military assets to infrastructure-specific protection) represents a significant shift in defensive doctrine to counter the RF's drone-led strike complexes.
Sustainment: UAF units in the Sloviansk/Kostiantynivka sector are prioritizing interdiction of RF supply lines over territorial defense to offset RF numerical superiority.
Information environment / disinformation
"Energy Truce" Narrative: RF-aligned channels are framing Ukrainian requests for a ceasefire (60-day proposal) as a symptom of total energy collapse (1254Z, Operatsiya Z). This is a strategic IO designed to undermine Ukraine's negotiating position.
Zaluzhnyi Stability: Continued efforts by Ukrainian officials to rebut rumors of Ambassador Zaluzhnyi’s resignation (1252Z) suggest a persistent RF-driven campaign to manufacture a rift between the military-political leadership and the diplomatic corps.
Aid Depletion: RF media is heavily amplifying the DPA report on reduced German aid to foster a narrative of "Western fatigue" (1240Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will accelerate the encirclement of Lyman from the south (Dibrova axis) while increasing KAB (guided bomb) strikes on Donetsk-region defensive hubs (1254Z).
MDCOA: A rapid collapse of the Huliaipole defensive pocket due to the identified "terrain disadvantage" could allow RF to pivot north toward the broader Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk administrative border.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Lyman Southern Flank: Verify the exact extent of RF penetration beyond Dibrova to determine if UAF GLOCs to Krasnyi Lyman are under direct fire control.
Huliaipole Withdrawal Indicators: Monitor for UAF heavy equipment movement away from Huliaipole to confirm if a tactical withdrawal to more favorable terrain is underway.
Kostiantynivka Command Status: Corroborate RU claims of "liquidation" of UAF command staff to assess local C2 integrity.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
Battlefield Geometry: RF expanding tactical gains in Lyman/Dibrova; UAF under geographical pressure in Huliaipole.
Threat: Systematic RF focus on isolating Lyman; internal RF security measures (internet cuts) suggest anticipation of New Year strikes.
Friendly: Proactive integration of EW for industrial protection; continued use of legacy systems (Maxim guns) to preserve high-end AA interceptors.
