Situation Update (1205Z 29 DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KUPYANSK ENCIRCLEMENT RISK: Reports indicate Ukrainian elements within Kupyansk are currently surrounded and have established 360-degree defensive mining ("mined in a circle") (1138Z, Butusov Plus, LOW). UNCONFIRMED.
- ZAPORIZHZHIA BREAKTHROUGH: Russian forces claim to have seized almost the entirety of Prymorske following an advance in the northern quadrant (1145Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
- STRATEGIC SPACE DEPLOYMENT: RF has launched new communication satellites from Vostochny Cosmodrome specifically designed to provide C2 (Command and Control) for military UAVs (1144Z, Rybar, HIGH).
- ZALUZHNYI STATUS DENIAL: Ukrainian sources have issued a formal denial regarding reports that Valeriy Zaluzhnyi intends to resign his post as Ambassador to the UK (1148Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM).
- MARITIME INCIDENT: The Russian "shadow fleet" vessel Ursa Major sank off the coast of Spain while reportedly carrying "secret strategic cargo," according to Spanish investigators (1201Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
- RF INTERNAL SECURITY: Russian legislative proposals suggest potential mobile internet shutdowns during the New Year period for "security reasons," indicating heightened internal tension or preparation for coordinated ops (1137Z, TASS, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Kupyansk):
The tactical situation in Kupyansk has deteriorated significantly. Following the deployment of the RF 7th Regiment and "Omich" robotic platforms (see Daily Report), UAF units are now reportedly operating in an isolated/encircled posture within the city (1138Z). This suggests a potential breakdown in Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) across the Oskil River.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Primorske):
The RF push toward Primorske (identified as a "New Sector Activation" in the 24h context) has achieved localized success. Russian forces claim control over the northern sectors and the majority of the settlement (1145Z). This increases the threat to the wider defensive belt protecting the approach to Zaporizhzhia city.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
RF artillery remains active, focusing on disrupting UAF counter-attack preparations and UAV command posts, specifically in the Konstantinovka direction (1203Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM).
Rear Areas (Dnipropetrovsk/Strategic):
- Air Threat: Russian BpLA (UAVs) are transiting eastern Dnipropetrovsk on a westerly course (1148Z).
- Logistics: UAF volunteer sectors are attempting to close a 73,000 UAH funding gap for vehicles destined for the Zaporizhzhia direction (1200Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Evolution: The integration of space-based C2 for UAVs (1144Z) suggests the RF is attempting to bypass Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) by moving drone control links to orbital frequencies, potentially neutralizing current UAF terrestrial jamming advantages.
- Logistics/Sustainment: The sinking of the Ursa Major (1201Z) represents a potential setback for RF strategic logistics. Belief scores (0.05) suggest low-level concern regarding nuclear or strategic components in the cargo; however, the disruption of "shadow fleet" operations remains a significant intelligence interest.
- Internal Control: Moves to restrict mobile internet (1137Z) and the publicizing of surveillance against dissenters (1152Z) indicate a tightening of the Russian domestic security environment to prevent civil unrest or "information leaks" during the holiday period.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Defensive Resilience: Units in Kupyansk are demonstrating high-intensity "last stand" tactics (mining in a circle) to prevent total RF consolidation of the urban center (1138Z).
- Diplomatic Stability: The clarification of Zaluzhnyi's status (1148Z) aims to maintain diplomatic continuity with the UK during a critical negotiation window.
- Civil-Military Sustainment: Continued reliance on crowdfunding for tactical mobility (Zaporizhzhia vehicles) highlights ongoing resource constraints in mechanized transport (1200Z).
Information environment / disinformation
- Foreign Aid Narratives: RF-aligned channels are amplifying critical American commentary (Col. Tony Aguilar) regarding Canadian aid to Ukraine (1153Z). This is a coordinated attempt to exploit "donor fatigue" narratives and influence Western domestic policy.
- Normalcy Projection: Putin’s meetings regarding social support for "SMO" participants (1151Z) and TASS reports on cultural funerals (1159Z) are designed to project a facade of domestic stability and government care.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will attempt to collapse the Kupyansk pocket before UAF can organize a relief force or riverine extraction. In Zaporizhzhia, RF will consolidate Prymorske and begin probing toward Stepnohirsk.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A synchronized missile/drone strike (utilizing the Shaykovka AB readiness noted in the 24h report) targeting the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia logistics hubs to prevent the arrival of UAF reinforcements to the crumbling southern front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Kupyansk Battle Damage Assessment (BDA): Urgent need for ISR/visual confirmation of the size of the encircled UAF force and the current status of the Oskil river crossings.
- "Ursa Major" Manifest: Priority to identify the "secret strategic cargo" lost near Spain; coordinate with naval attachés to determine if this impacts RF missile or nuclear production cycles.
- Prymorske Geometry: Verify the exact extent of RF control in Prymorske. Is the UAF still holding the southern outskirts or industrial zones?
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
- Battlefield Geometry: Frontline expanding in Zaporizhzhia; urban encirclement developing in Kupyansk.
- Threat: RF integrating space-tier C2 for drones; maintaining high-tempo localized assaults.
- Friendly: UAF holding critical points under extreme pressure; maintaining diplomatic posture while struggling with tactical vehicle deficits.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
