NORTHERN BORDER ESCALATION: Reports indicate a sudden Russian assault on the settlements of Kharkiv and Komarovka in Sumy Oblast, involving an armored company and motorized riflemen from Group "North" (1108Z, Alex Parker, LOW). UNCONFIRMED.
DIPLOMATIC HARDLINING: President Zelenskyy has publicly rejected "ending the war by phone" regarding the Putin-Trump dialogue and stated that international troop presence is the only viable security guarantee for lifting martial law (1112Z, 1118Z, RBC-UA/Poddubny, HIGH).
RF STRATEGIC POSTURE: Putin, during a MoD board meeting, asserted that the RF holds the strategic initiative and that the "long fight" is proceeding according to plan (1111Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM).
LEADERSHIP CHURN: Reports suggest Valerii Zaluzhnyi may be preparing to vacate his post as Ambassador to the UK, signaling a potential shift in Ukrainian diplomatic or internal political alignment (1120Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
DRONE SUSTAINMENT: Ukrainian volunteer sectors have secured an additional 450 FPV drones for frontline units, countering ongoing RF electronic warfare and mass (1107Z, Sternenko, HIGH).
LEGAL/CIVIL FRICTION: Pro-Russian sources are amplifying claims by Mykhailo Podolyak regarding the potential disenfranchisement of "draft dodgers," likely an IO effort to exploit domestic Ukrainian mobilization tensions (1123Z, Operation Z, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv):POTENTIAL NEW FRONT. Reports of RF Group "North" initiating ground assaults near Repki/Komarovka. If confirmed, this indicates an attempt to overstretch UAF reserves and create a "buffer zone" or a secondary axis of advance toward Kharkiv from the northwest.
Slovyansk/Donetsk Sector:HIGH INTENSITY. RF "Paratrooper’s Diary" reports continued pressure in the Slovyansk direction. Tactical maps show incremental RF efforts to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints via motorized and airborne assaults (1122Z).
Pokrovsk Sector:CRITICAL. While no new specific gains were reported in the last 30 minutes, the 92nd Assault Brigade has released footage of close-quarters "clearing" operations, indicating high-frequency kinetic engagements and a non-linear frontline (1122Z).
Lyman/Serebryanske Sector:STABLE. Baseline activity continues with UAF utilizing high-tech drone assets (Fiber-optic FPVs) to maintain defensive integrity.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Domain Pressure: The RF is balancing kinetic operations in Sumy/Donbas with a refined information campaign. Putin’s "business as usual" rhetoric aims to project long-term endurance to Western audiences while maintaining high tactical pressure.
Hybrid Operations: Continued use of Russian instructors in the Central African Republic (CAR) demonstrates RF’s commitment to global power projection and the "Wagner-model" of influence, potentially securing resources to fund the Ukraine theater (1129Z, TASS).
Tactical Shift: The use of an armored company for a border raid in Sumy (if confirmed) suggests the RF is moving away from purely "meat assault" tactics in secondary sectors toward more traditional combined arms to test UAF reaction times.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Innovation: The rapid acquisition of 450 FPV drones (1107Z) highlights the continued reliance on civil-society-funded "mosquito fleets" to offset RF armored advantages.
Diplomatic Positioning: Zelenskyy’s insistence on "international troops" as a security guarantee sets a high-bar condition for any ceasefire, likely aimed at pre-empting any "neutrality" models proposed by external mediators.
Active Defense: Units like the 92nd OSHBr and the "Azov" (Dobropillya operation, baseline) are maintaining localized offensive pressure to prevent RF from consolidating logistics hubs.
Information environment / disinformation
"Failed Volunteers" Narrative: RF state media (Kotsnews) is heavily pushing a narrative that US volunteers in Ukraine are disillusioned and ineffective. Analytical Judgment: This is a coordinated IO campaign to dampen Western public support and discourage foreign recruitment (1129Z).
Internal Instability Narratives: Amplification of "draft dodger disenfranchisement" and the TCC stabbing in Odesa (baseline) is intended to paint Ukraine as a state on the verge of internal collapse, undermining its position in upcoming negotiations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue the Sumy border incursions (Repki/Komarovka) to force UAF to reallocate reserves from the Pokrovsk/Slovyansk axes.
MDCOA: A larger-than-expected mechanized breakthrough in the Sumy sector targeting regional logistics, timed to coincide with high-level diplomatic calls to create a "fait accompli" on the ground.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sumy Border Verification: Immediate drone/satellite ISR required to confirm the presence and size of the RF armored company near Kharkiv/Komarovka (Sumy region).
Zaluzhnyi Status: Clarify if the reported resignation is a precursor to a return to a domestic military or political role, which could impact UAF command stability.
Draft Dodger Legislation: Confirm the veracity and specific wording of Podolyak’s statements to distinguish between actual policy proposals and RF disinformation.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB) SUMMARY
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict is widening laterally toward the Sumy border.
Threat: RF Group "North" is active; Putin is signaling a commitment to a war of attrition regardless of diplomatic overtures.
Friendly: UAF leadership is pivoting toward "boots on the ground" security demands while maintaining high-tech attrition via drones.
