TERRITORIAL LOSS (LYMAN SECTOR): RF Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Dibrova. Reporting indicates the 20th Combined Arms Army is consolidating positions for further pushes toward the H-20 (1022Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH).
SOUTHERN FRONT PENETRATION (HULYAYPOLE): Russian 38th Guard Motorized Rifle Brigade and 35th Army assets have successfully captured a UAF strongpoint northwest of Hulyaypole near Tsvetkove. Video evidence confirms RF forces inspecting seized UAF defensive positions (1015Z, 1030Z, Voin DV, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC MAXIMALISM: Kremlin Press Secretary Peskov expanded territorial demands, explicitly stating that UAF must withdraw not only from Donbas but also from the administrative borders of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as a prerequisite for negotiations (1007Z, 1033Z, STERNENKO/ASTRA, HIGH).
UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATION STANCE: President Zelenskyy signaled a willingness for direct talks with Russia, but only if the United States and European Union are direct participants in the format (1035Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
HYBRID THREAT (DISINFORMATION): Russian channels have begun circulating claims that "chemical weapons from Ukraine" may fall into terrorist hands. This follows a standard RF pattern of pre-emptive "false flag" narrative framing (1012Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW).
INFRASTRUCTURE CRITICALITY: Combined effects of kinetic strikes and severe weather have de-energized 215 settlements across Ukraine. Grid stability is currently at high risk (1026Z, Ukrenergo/RBC-UA, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by Russian tactical successes on the flanks of the Donbas and a significant widening of political demands. The capture of Dibrova (Lyman) and the breach of defensive lines near Hulyaypole (Zaporizhzhia) suggest the RF is attempting to capitalize on UAF fatigue before any potential diplomatic freeze. Additionally, environmental factors (winter storms) are now actively degrading UAF logistics and civilian resilience, compounding the impact of the ongoing "Shahed" campaign in Dnipro and KAB strikes in Sumy.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Tactical Shift (Southern Axis): The deployment of the 35th Army northwest of Hulyaypole indicates a shift from broad-front pressure to focused breakthrough attempts targeting the T-08-14 highway. The use of drone-guided combined arms (38th MRB) suggests a high degree of tactical coordination (1015Z).
Air Operations: Continued use of KABs (Guided Aerial Bombs) in the Sumy sector indicates a persistence of aerial superiority near the border, likely aimed at disrupting UAF reserves intended for the Kharkiv/Lyman defense (1011Z).
Informational Course of Action: The "chemical weapon" narrative (1012Z) is assessed as a psychological operation intended to justify future use of specialized munitions or to create a "red line" pretext for Western audiences.
Strategic Intent: The Kremlin’s demand for withdrawal from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia cities (which are currently UAF-held) confirms that Russia is not seeking a "freeze" at current lines of contact but a total administrative capitulation.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF is struggling with "multi-domain attrition." The loss of a strongpoint in Hulyaypole suggests that the 102nd TDF or adjacent units may be overstretched.
Resilience Measures: The Ukrainian government is fast-tracking housing programs for medical staff in frontline areas (Zaporizhzhia) to prevent a collapse of civilian support infrastructure (1010Z).
Strategic Defense: Zelenskyy's pivot toward "US/EU-inclusive talks" is a counter-maneuver to Peskov’s attempt to bilateralize negotiations with Trump, ensuring that any peace framework remains anchored in European security guarantees.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Propaganda: Intensified focus on "Christmas/New Year" legislation and social benefits (Volodin, 1026Z) to maintain domestic stability while the military executes high-casualty offensives.
Ukrainian Counter-Narratives: Immediate documentation of civilian casualties in Dnipro and Orikhiv is being used to maintain international focus on the humanitarian cost of RF drone/artillery strikes (1009Z, 1013Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue mechanized pressure NW of Hulyaypole to isolate the town while simultaneously utilizing the newly captured Dibrova to launch probes toward Zarichne. Missile/drone activity will likely shift toward "dual-use" targets (energy/logistics) to exacerbate the current weather-driven blackouts.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes "chemical weapon" disinformation as a pretext for the use of non-persistent riot control agents or prohibited substances to clear UAF fortified positions in the Serebryanske Forest or Pokrovsk industrial zones.
Timeline: The next 12 hours will likely see an increase in KAB and Shahed activity across the Northern and Central sectors as a precursor to the 24-hour window surrounding the Trump-Putin dialogue.
Operational picture (by sector)
Lyman Sector:CONSOLIDATING. RF has confirmed Dibrova. Expect immediate ISR activity targeting UAF 2nd line of defense near the H-20.
Zaporizhzhia Sector (Hulyaypole/Orikhiv):DETERIORATING. Loss of tactical strongpoint near Tsvetkove (1030Z) and continued artillery/air strikes on Orikhiv (1013Z) indicate a localized RF offensive effort.
Dnipro/Rear:RECOVERY. Aftermath of Shahed strikes (1009Z) and severe weather-induced power outages (1026Z) are limiting logistics and C2 bandwidth.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: High probability of a secondary wave of UAV strikes targeting the Bila Tserkva region (following the PSA/warning at 1024Z).
Diplomatic: Watch for potential U.S. response to Zelenskyy's demand for trilateral/multilateral negotiation participation.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Verification of Hulyaypole Strongpoint: Identify the specific UAF unit that withdrew from the Tsvetkove area to assess potential for a localized collapse.
"Chemical Weapon" Narrative Origin: Trace the specific origin of the chemical weapon claim (1012Z) to determine if it originates from RF SOF/GRU (indicating operational intent) or standard media agitprop.
Omich UGV Geolocation: (Ongoing from 28 DEC) Determine if the amphibious robots are moving toward the Zaporizhzhia front following the success NW of Hulyaypole.
