TERRITORIAL LOSS CONFIRMED (LYMAN SECTOR): The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Dibrova. Russian Defense Minister issued a formal congratulatory message to units involved (1002Z, MoD Russia, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC POSTURING (TRUMP-PUTIN-ZELENSKYY): The Kremlin confirmed a second phone call between Putin and Trump will occur "in the near future." Simultaneously, Peskov rejected any immediate plans for a Putin-Zelenskyy call and reiterated the demand for a full UAF withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk regions as a precondition (0950Z, 0955Z, TASS/Alex Parker, HIGH).
STRATEGIC CLARIFICATION (FEZ): President Zelenskyy clarified that the proposed "Free Economic Zone" (FEZ) is not a "demilitarized zone." He emphasized that EU integration remains a mandatory security guarantee for any peace framework (0942Z, 0944Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Tsaplienko, HIGH).
UAV ACTIVITY (VARIOUS SECTORS): UAF Air Force reports multiple RF strike UAVs (Shahed/Geran) active in Dnipropetrovsk (heading West) and northern Chernihiv (heading Berezna) (0941Z, 1002Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
HIGH-VALUE TARGET CLAIM (KONSTANTYNIVKA SECTOR - UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim the liquidation of Lt. Col. Vyacheslav Lutsenko, Commander of a mechanized battalion of the 28th OMBr (1000Z, Colonelcassad, LOW).
ATTRITION (SOUTHERN SECTOR): UAF Southern Defense Forces report the elimination of 300 RF personnel and 1 tank in the last 24-hour cycle (0956Z, South Defense Forces, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted toward Russian consolidation of recent tactical gains in the Lyman sector and increased psychological pressure following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. The confirmation of Dibrova’s fall marks a successful RF shaping operation for a larger offensive toward Krasnyi Lyman. In the rear, Moscow is preparing for potential New Year instability by signaling mobile internet restrictions (1003Z), while Ukraine continues aggressive anti-corruption internal cleansing to maintain Western trust (1000Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Course of Action (Lyman): Following the capture of Dibrova, the RF is expected to utilize the Serebryanske Forest as a springboard for multi-directional assaults on the Torsk-Zarichne-Krasnyi Lyman axis.
Munitions Capability: Indicators suggest RF is deploying updated long-range specialized munitions (likely UMPK-equipped high-caliber bombs) with increased standoff ranges, allowing aircraft to strike deeper behind UAF lines while remaining outside tactical AD range (0958Z, Basurin, MEDIUM).
Diplomatic Maneuver: The Kremlin is attempting to bypass Kyiv by emphasizing direct Trump-Putin communication. Peskov’s "no trade" stance on the Donbas withdrawal indicates Russia is leveraging its tactical momentum to force maximalist concessions (0955Z).
Domestic Security: The arrest of former regional governors (Tambov) and internet throttling plans in Moscow suggest the RF leadership is tightening internal controls ahead of the 2026 transition (0943Z, 1003Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Southern Posture: UAF maintains a high-attrition defensive posture. Claimed destruction of 50+ RF vehicles in the Southern sector indicates successful prioritization of Russian logistics and mobile groups (0956Z).
Political Defense: Zelenskyy’s rhetoric has hardened against "forced peace." By labeling EU integration as "mandatory," he is creating a red line for negotiators and countering RF narratives of a "non-aligned" status (0942Z).
Counter-Corruption: Continued high-profile arrests in Odesa and in the "Midas" case (0944Z, 1000Z) serve as a dual-purpose signaling mechanism: maintaining domestic morale and demonstrating accountability to the incoming US administration.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian IO: Heavy emphasis on "Christmas gifts" (strikes) and military testimonials (Kotsnews) to maintain domestic support for a winter offensive.
Narrative Conflict: A significant divergence exists regarding the "Free Economic Zone." RF sources frame it as a precursor to partition, while Zelenskyy is explicitly framing it as an economic recovery tool that does not involve demilitarization (0944Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high UAV pressure over Dnipro and Chernihiv to fix air defense assets while preparing a mechanized push from Dibrova toward the H-20 highway.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "increased range" munitions to target C2 nodes in Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka simultaneously with a push from Dibrova, attempting to induce a systemic collapse of the northern Donetsk defensive line.
Timeline: The next 48-72 hours (leading to New Year’s Eve) will likely see a peak in RF missile/drone strikes designed to maximize psychological impact during the planned Trump-Putin call.
Operational picture (by sector)
Lyman Sector:CRITICAL. RF control of Dibrova is confirmed. UAF units in the Serebryanske Forest are at risk of being bypassed or enveloped if Zarichne is not reinforced.
Southern Sector:STABLE-ACTIVE. High attrition of RF motorized units. UAF appears to be effectively trading space for time and equipment.
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy):CAUTIONARY. Frequent drone incursions suggest RF is testing AD density. The previously reported Sumy incursion remains unconfirmed by visual evidence but warrants continued ISR focus.
Rear Areas:MONITORING. Russian strikes targeting energy (Abkhazia blackout, though possibly technical, illustrates grid fragility) and ongoing UAV transit toward Western Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Continued Shahed/Geran-2 transits across Dnipropetrovsk and Chernihiv. Potential for a limited RF mechanized push near the Dibrova salient to test the first line of UAF defense toward Krasnyi Lyman.
Strategic: Monitor for official readouts of the Trump-Putin call, which will likely dictate the kinetic intensity of the 24-hour New Year window.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Verification of Lt. Col. Lutsenko's status: Confirm if the 28th OMBr C2 structure has been degraded in the Konstantynivka sector.
Sumy Border Status: (Remaid Requirement) Confirm if the "Kharkivka/Komarovka" incursion was a DRG probe or if RF forces have established permanent positions.
Munition Range Technical Data: Identify the specific "increased range" munition mentioned by Basurin (0958Z) to update AD engagement envelopes.
