TERRITORIAL LOSS (LYMAN SECTOR): Russian Ministry of Defense and multiple sources confirm the RF liberation of Dibrova (DNR). Operations are reportedly intensifying to envelop Krasnyi Lyman (0919Z, 0931Z, MoD Russia, HIGH).
BORDER INCURSION (SUMY SECTOR - UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources report a border breach in eastern Sumy Oblast, claiming RF forces have entered Kharkivka and Komarovka (0912Z, Voenkor Kotenok, LOW).
DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERING: President Zelenskyy proposed that the 20-point peace plan be subject to a national referendum and called for a four-party technical working group (Ukraine, US, EU, Russia) to finalize terms (0915Z, 0924Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
FAILED COUNTER-ATTACK (ZAPORIZHZHIA - UNCONFIRMED): RF sources claim a failed UAF counter-attack in the Vozdvizhivka-Varvarivka direction, alleging UAF loss of one tank and significant personnel (0910Z, TASS, LOW).
SECURITY GUARANTEES: Further confirmation of a proposed 50-year US security guarantee framework currently under discussion with the Trump administration (0920Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: A 61-year-old woman was wounded in an RF attack on the Zaporizhzhia district; air alerts remain active (0925Z, 0929Z, Zaporizhzhia OВА, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from a primarily aerial-focused campaign to a widening of the ground front. The RF has achieved a tactical success in the Lyman sector (Dibrova) and is allegedly attempting to open a new axis of advance in Sumy Oblast. Diplomatically, the Ukrainian leadership is attempting to institutionalize the "20-point plan" via domestic referendum and multilateral working groups to ensure long-term stability against shifting US political tides.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Course of Action: The RF is pursuing a "widening the front" strategy. By claiming incursions into Sumy (0912Z), they force UAF to divert reserves from the critical Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Lyman Sector: The seizure of Dibrova (0914Z) is a shaping operation. Analysts expect the RF to attempt a pincer movement on Krasnyi Lyman to disrupt UAF logistics in northern Donetsk.
Internal Stability/Morale: Despite tactical gains, internal friction persists. Video appeals from wives of RF servicemen (0924Z) indicate the continued use of "expendable" personnel (wounded/disabled) in assault roles, while high-level corruption (arrest of Krasnoyarsk Construction Minister, 0906Z) suggests ongoing systemic instability.
Information Operations: RF channels are heavily amplifying Estonian intelligence statements regarding NATO to project a "no-threat" image while simultaneously critiquing Zelenskyy’s peace plan as ignoring "non-aligned status" (0932Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Tactical Posture: UAF is conducting active defense in the south. The reported counter-attack toward Vozdvizhivka (0910Z), if verified, suggests UAF is not merely static but seeking to disrupt RF assembly areas in Zaporizhzhia.
Strategic Communication: The proposal for a national referendum (0915Z) serves as a defensive political measure, ensuring that any peace agreement carries the weight of popular mandate, thereby complicating any potential "forced" concessions by external actors.
Resource Management: The Coordination Headquarters for POWs has launched an updated personal cabinet system (0906Z) to streamline data for missing personnel, likely a move to manage domestic morale as kinetic intensity increases.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Conflict: A significant battle for the "Peace Plan" narrative is underway. RF-aligned channels (Poddubny/Kots) are attempting to discredit Zelenskyy’s 20 points by claiming they deviate from a "Trump framework" that allegedly mandates NATO exclusion (0932Z).
Psychological Ops: RF channels are utilizing infographics and year-end "success" statistics (e.g., Alex Parker Returns, 0926Z) to maintain domestic support and project an image of inevitability.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify offensive operations toward Krasnyi Lyman from the newly secured positions in Dibrova. In Sumy, expect small-unit sabotage and reconnaissance (DRG) activity to continue to validate the "breakthrough" narrative and fix UAF border units.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The claimed Sumy incursion (0912Z) is a precursor to a larger mechanized thrust aimed at cutting the H07 highway, timed with continued KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia to prevent UAF lateral redistribution of forces.
Timeline: Next 12-24h will see a surge in RF long-range ISR (drones) over Sumy and Kharkiv to identify gaps created by the Dibrova loss.
Operational picture (by sector)
Lyman Sector:DETERIORATING. RF occupation of Dibrova confirmed. Threat to Krasnyi Lyman logistics is now HIGH.
Sumy Sector:CAUTIONARY. Unconfirmed reports of border incursions in Kharkivka and Komarovka. Requires immediate ISR verification.
Zaporizhzhia Sector:ACTIVE. Continued KAB strikes and reported (but unconfirmed) UAF counter-attacks near Vozdvizhivka.
Donetsk/Pokrovsk:STABLE-TENUOUS. No major territorial shifts reported in the last 3 hours, but RF "Rubicon" drone units remain active in the tactical rear.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Expect increased RF artillery and FPV activity in the Lyman sector to exploit the Dibrova breakthrough.
Diplomatic: Potential for further clarifying statements from the US regarding the "50-year guarantee" and "Free Economic Zone" discussions.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Sumy Incursion Verification: Immediate requirement for satellite imagery or drone ISR of Kharkivka and Komarovka (Sumy Oblast) to confirm or deny RF presence.
Vozdvizhivka BDA: Confirm status of UAF counter-attack and verify claimed equipment losses (1 tank).
FEZ Details: Determine the geographic scope and proposed monitoring mechanism for the "Free Economic Zone" mentioned by Zelenskyy (0929Z).
"Omich" Tracking: (REMAINTAINED FROM DAILY REPORT) Urgent geolocation of amphibious robotic platforms to identify intended water-crossing sites.
