STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY: President Zelenskyy confirmed that Donald Trump discussed all 20 points of the Ukrainian peace plan with Vladimir Putin; Zelenskyy proposed a 30-50 year US security guarantee framework (0844Z, 0849Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
DEEP STRIKE (UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim a successful long-range drone strike against an active Ukrainian airfield in the "deep rear." Evidence of BDA is currently lacking (0901Z, Fighterbomber, LOW).
COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE: The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office exposed a spotter for Belarusian special services who was providing coordinates for strikes against Kyiv thermal power plants (TECs) (0900Z, Office of Gen Prosecutor, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) confirmed targeting the Zaporizhzhia region (0847Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
WAR CRIMES (UNCONFIRMED): Reports allege the execution of seven Ukrainian civilians by two Russian servicemen of the 30th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in Pokrovsk on Dec 21 (0845Z, Butusov Plus, LOW).
RF MANPOWER: The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the conclusion of the autumn conscription cycle (135,000 personnel), claiming no conscripts were sent to the combat zone (0900Z, 0902Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
AERIAL THREAT (KHARKIV): Russian UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast on a vector toward Derhachi (0859Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by the political fallout of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting and a sustained Russian aerial campaign. While ground movements remain localized in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia sectors, the Russian Federation (RF) has intensified its use of tactical aviation (KABs) and long-range drones. A critical hybrid threat has emerged with the confirmation of Belarusian intelligence involvement in targeting Kyiv's energy infrastructure. Weather remains conducive to both UAV reconnaissance and tactical aviation strikes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Air Operations: The RF continues to prioritize Zaporizhzhia for KAB strikes, likely to suppress UAF defensive positions ahead of anticipated ground pushes toward Stepnohirsk. The claim of a deep-rear airfield strike by "dronovody" (0901Z) suggests an intent to target UAF aviation assets, though this remains unconfirmed.
Hybrid/Intelligence: The involvement of Belarusian special services in targeting Kyiv's energy grid (0900Z) indicates a widening of the adversary coalition's operational scope, moving beyond mere logistical support to active kinetic targeting assistance.
Internal Personnel: The completion of the 135k-man conscription cycle (0900Z) allows the RF to maintain its domestic "stability" narrative while freeing up administrative resources for further contract-based mobilization.
Tactical Units: The "Rubicon" drone unit (RF MoD) is confirmed active in the Donbas, providing high-resolution ISR and targeting (0840Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Counter-Hybrid Ops: UAF/SBU successfully neutralized a Belarusian-linked cell targeting Kyiv CHPs, likely preventing a significant "spoiler strike" during the current diplomatic window.
Strategic Posturing: UAF leadership is pivoting toward a "long-term guarantee" narrative (30-50 years), moving the discussion from immediate aid to permanent security architecture.
Operational Morale: While RF sources claim internal "zeroing" (executions) and low morale in their own ranks (0902Z), UAF forces in the Pokrovsk sector face high psychological pressure due to reported atrocities against civilians (0845Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Propaganda: Russian milbloggers (Basurin, Alex Parker) are heavily saturating the environment with mocking cartoons and edited clips of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting (0835Z, 0844Z) to frame the diplomacy as a "failure" for Ukraine.
Narrative Manipulation: RF sources are amplifying Estonian intelligence statements regarding Russia's "lack of intent" to attack NATO (0839Z) to foster a sense of false security and divide Western allies.
Internal UA Friction: Pro-Russian channels are highlighting "unpopular decisions" being prepared in the Rada (0845Z) to incite domestic unrest regarding potential mobilization or negotiation terms.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the high-intensity KAB and drone tempo over Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv to fix UAF reserves. In the next 6-12h, expect further "leaks" or disinformation regarding the "20 points" discussed between Trump and Putin to create confusion in the Ukrainian information space.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the "deep rear" drone reconnaissance capabilities claimed by Fighterbomber, the RF conducts a coordinated missile and drone strike against a UAF airfield or C2 node, timing it with the Jan meeting of US/EU advisors to demonstrate UAF vulnerability despite security guarantee discussions.
Timeline: Continued aerial alerts for Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv; high probability of a night-time Shahed/KAB surge targeting energy infrastructure.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk Sector:CRITICAL. Allegations of civilian executions (0845Z) and active drone hunting by "Rubicon" unit (0840Z). The area remains the focal point for RF tactical brutality and reconnaissance.
Kharkiv/Derhachi:ACTIVE UAV THREAT. Persistent reconnaissance and strike drone activity in the northern corridor (0859Z).
Luhansk (LNR):ADMINISTRATIVE SHIFT. Suspension of curfew for holidays (0837Z) suggests an attempt to project "normalization" in occupied territories despite ongoing frontline combat.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Sustained air pressure in the South; possible retaliatory or "demonstration" strikes following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
Diplomatic: Continued focus on the "30-50 year" guarantee proposal and the upcoming January meeting in Ukraine.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Airfield Strike Verification: Urgent BDA or ISR confirmation of the "deep rear" airfield strike claimed by RF drone units.
Belarusian Special Services Involvement: Determine the depth of Belarusian intelligence penetration beyond the exposed spotter in Kyiv. Are there similar cells in Western Ukraine?
Pokrovsk Atrocity Confirmation: Multi-source verification of the Dec 21 civilian executions to facilitate international legal filings and assess impact on local troop morale.
"20 Points" Detail: Identification of the specific points within the peace plan discussed between Trump and Putin to assess potential shift in US policy.
