STRATEGIC PROPOSAL: President Zelenskyy has proposed to Donald Trump a framework for 30-50 year US security guarantees for Ukraine (0834Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
AERIAL THREAT (KYIV): Shahed UAV detected over Chernihiv Oblast, currently on a vector toward Brovary/Kyiv region (0813Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
TACTICAL AVIATION (DNIPRO): RF aviation has extended strike operations into the Dnipropetrovsk region, targeting Pidhavrylivka, Pokrovske, and Havrylivka (0815Z, Liveuamap/GSZSU, HIGH).
AIR OPS (SOUTH/EAST): Mass KAB (guided bomb) launches confirmed targeting Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts (0820Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
LEGAL/HYBRID (RF): Putin signed a law effectively prohibiting the enforcement of decisions from foreign and international courts within Russia (0827Z, Sever.Realii, HIGH).
TECH DEPLOYMENT (RF): RF sources claim successful testing of a new laser-based anti-drone system and the delivery of the first batch of modernized AK-15K rifles (0806Z, 0834Z, Russian Milbloggers, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL SECURITY (UA): SBU searches confirmed at the Zakarpattia Regional Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) targeting the head of the facility (0817Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has significantly increased across the entire front line, particularly in the South and East. RF forces are actively expanding the combat zone toward the Dnipropetrovsk border through tactical aviation strikes, confirming a shift from localized Zaporizhzhia pushes to a broader regional threat. Strategic maneuvering continues in the diplomatic sphere with the 30-50 year guarantee proposal, likely intended to anchor long-term US interests regardless of immediate administration changes. Weather remains overcast, favoring drone operations over heavy armor, though RF is attempting to leverage new laser AD technology to counter UAF drone supremacy.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Aviation Extension: The targeting of Havrylivka and Pokrovske in the Dnipropetrovsk region (0815Z) indicates the RF is attempting to interdict UAF logistics and reserves moving toward the Zaporizhzhia front.
Weaponry Modernization: Deployment of the AK-15K (specialized for Spetsnaz) and the testing of laser anti-drone systems suggest a prioritization of small-unit lethality and technological countermeasures against UAF FPV dominance.
Operational Groupings:
Tsentr (Center) Group: Currently emphasizing the "liberation" of Dimitrov (Donetsk sector) using the 5th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (0821Z).
Vostok (East) Group: Focused on the Orikhiv/Huliaipole axis, attempting to push toward Prymorske and Varvarivka (0816Z).
C2 & Legal: The signing of the law ignoring international court rulings (0827Z) is a defensive legal measure against war crimes prosecutions, signaling a long-term commitment to current operations regardless of international pressure.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Defensive Operations: GSZSU reports high-intensity defensive actions across the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes. In Pokrovsk, fighting has reached the vicinity of Udachne and Kotlyne, indicating a widening of the RF penetration zone (0816Z).
Frontline Stability: UAF successfully repelled 3 assaults in the Kherson direction and 5 assaults in the Kursk/Sumy border region (0816Z). This indicates that despite RF pressure, the "buffer zone" in the north remains contested but under control.
Morale/Social: The Ministry of Veterans Affairs is launching a PSA campaign to facilitate veteran reintegration (0807Z), a critical component of maintaining social cohesion as mobilization challenges continue.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Narrative: RF milbloggers (Colonelcassad) are amplifying Estonian statements about "no plans to attack Baltics" (0833Z) to frame NATO concerns as "hysteria" and drive a wedge between Eastern European allies.
Internal Friction (UA): Russian sources are heavily featuring the SBU searches in Zakarpattia (0817Z) to amplify narratives of Ukrainian systemic corruption.
Domestic Stabilization (RF): TASS is shifting focus to "New Year" social welfare (maternity capital) and health advice to project domestic stability despite the high-intensity air campaign (0814Z, 0822Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk border towns to facilitate a ground push toward Stepnohirsk. The Shahed currently heading for Kyiv is likely a "pathfinder" or part of a small wave to test AD readiness following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported concentration in the Lyman direction (fighting toward Novoselivka/Zarichne) to attempt a localized encirclement of UAF units east of the Oskil river, synchronized with a mass missile strike targeting Kyiv’s power grid during the current drone window.
Timeline: The next 6-12 hours will see increased kinetic activity in the Brovary/Kyiv air corridor and continued aviation pressure on the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia boundary.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk/Donetsk:HIGH INTENSITY. Fighting reported in Udachne, Myrnohrad, and toward Serhiyivka. RF attempting to expand the salient west and north (0816Z).
Lyman/Sloviansk:ACTIVE. Significant clashes near Zarichne and Myrne; RF is pushing directly toward Lyman city (0816Z).
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro Border:CRITICAL. RF aviation striking deep into Dnipropetrovsk region. Ground clashes ongoing at Huliaipole and towards Prymorske (0815Z, 0816Z).
Northern Border (Kursk/Sumy):STABLE. 5 Russian assaults repelled. RF maintaining pressure but failing to achieve a breakthrough (0816Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Continued arrival of Shahed UAVs in the Kyiv/Brovary area. Expect follow-on waves if the initial "pathfinder" identifies AD gaps.
Diplomatic: Increased RF rhetoric dismissive of the "30-50 year" proposal, likely framing it as an "escalation" by the outgoing or future US administration.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Laser AD Efficacy: BDA required on the effectiveness of the reported RF laser anti-drone system. Has it achieved any confirmed intercepts of UAF ISR or FPV drones?
Dnipropetrovsk Border Strength: Assessment of UAF second-line defenses in Pidhavrylivka and Havrylivka following the recent surge in RF airstrikes.
Shahed Composition: Determine if the current drone wave involves "Geran-3" variants or new EW-resistant models previously reported in 24h context.
