TACTICAL (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Russian sources claim UAF units are retreating from the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia border following heavy losses (0802Z, TASS/Kimakovsky, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
AIR OPS (RF): Active KAB (guided bomb) launches and tactical aviation activity confirmed over Zaporizhzhia and southeastern sectors (0756Z, 0803Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
COUNTER-OFFENSIVE (UAF): RF sources report a localized UAF counter-attack near Huliaipole (Vozdvizhevka-Varvarovka) involving elements of the "Wolves of Da Vinci" (0759Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC (INTL): President Macron announces a meeting of Ukraine’s European partners in Paris for early January (0751Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
LEADERSHIP: Valerii Zaluzhnyi reportedly set to conclude his tenure as Ambassador to the UK in early January 2026 (0755Z, Radio NV, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL (UA): Law enforcement conducted searches at the Zakarpattia Regional Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) (0804Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-tempo transition from diplomatic maneuvering to renewed tactical pressure. Following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, RF forces have intensified standoff strikes (KABs) in the South. The weather remains a constraint on heavy maneuver, yet both sides are attempting localized infantry-heavy pushes supported by drones. The claim of a UAF retreat on the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border suggests RF intends to frame the post-diplomatic window as a period of Ukrainian collapse.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Tactical Aviation: RF has shifted focus to the southeastern axis, utilizing KABs to suppress UAF forward positions and logistics hubs in Zaporizhzhia.
Precision Targeting: The 57th ORSPN (Special Purpose) is actively targeting UAF UAV launch sites and Points of Temporary Deployment (PVD) in the Toretsk sector, indicating a concerted effort to degrade Ukrainian localized ISR (0800Z).
Hybrid/Global Influence: Continued promotion of Wagner PMC successes in the Central African Republic (0804Z) serves as a strategic distraction and a tool for internal Russian morale, framing the RF as a "stabilizing" global power.
Narrative Warfare: RF sources are heavily curating the Trump-Zelenskyy press conference to emphasize Trump's past compliments to Putin, aiming to demoralize the Ukrainian domestic audience.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF continues to contest the Huliaipole sector. Reports of a counter-attack by the "Wolves of Da Vinci" (up to 50 personnel, 3 tanks) indicate a policy of "active defense" to prevent RF from consolidating recent gains in the Primorske direction (0759Z).
Institutional Integrity: The investigation into the Zakarpattia TCC indicates ongoing efforts to address mobilization-related corruption, which is critical for maintaining public trust and force generation legitimacy.
Infrastructure Vulnerability: Reports indicate significant power outages in Kyiv suburbs (Brovary, Vyshhorod) (0747Z). While RF-sourced, this aligns with recent strategic strikes on the energy grid and poses a risk to local sustainment and morale during the holiday period.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: RF-aligned channels are pushing a "New Year without light" narrative for the Kyiv region to amplify the perceived impact of their strategic bombing campaign.
Internal RF Friction: Reports of "Eternal Flame" desecration in Leningrad and debates over "Islamization" regarding the Russian Coat of Arms (0742Z, 0754Z) suggest underlying social tensions within the RF that may be exploited for psychological operations.
Diplomatic Ambiguity: The Xinhua report (0754Z) citing "little sign of a breakthrough" despite Trump’s "great progress" rhetoric creates an information gap that RF propaganda is currently filling with pessimistic interpretations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue high-intensity KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia to facilitate the "Vostok" Group's push toward the Dnipropetrovsk border. Expect increased drone-led "spoiler" attacks in the Toretsk and Lyman sectors to prevent UAF from shifting reserves.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF capitalizes on the reported "retreat" on the Zaporizhzhia border (if even partially true) to launch a mechanized dash toward the Oskil river or the southern approaches to Dnipro, utilizing the "Omich" amphibious robots previously noted in the 24h context.
Timeline Estimate: The next 48 hours are critical for UAF to stabilize the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk boundary. The transition of Zaluzhnyi and the Paris meeting in January suggest a potential reorganization of the Ukrainian strategic C2 and European support framework.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia:CRITICAL. High KAB activity. Conflicting reports of UAF counter-attacks vs. UAF retreats. RF "Vostok" group remains the primary threat.
Toretsk:ACTIVE. RF Spetsnaz focusing on neutralizing UAF drone C2 nodes.
Kyiv/Rear:INFRASTRUCTURE THREAT. High risk of localized blackouts in suburbs; AD must remain on high alert for follow-on "Shahed" waves.
Zakarpattia:INTERNAL. Counter-corruption operations ongoing in mobilization centers.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Sustained tactical aviation strikes in the South. Likely increase in FPV/recon drone density over the Huliaipole-Vozdvizhevka axis.
Informational: Expect UAF General Staff or Presidency to provide a counter-narrative to the TASS "retreat" claims to maintain domestic morale.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verification of Withdrawal: BDA/ISR confirmation required for the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia border. Are UAF units conducting a planned retrograde or is the TASS report purely disinformation?
KAB Launch Points: Identify specific airbases supporting the current Zaporizhzhia KAB surge (likely Primorsko-Akhtarsk or Rostov-on-Don).
Power Grid Status: Independent BDA on the Brovary/Vyshhorod energy nodes to determine the duration of the blackout.
