AIR OPS (RF): Finalized assessment of overnight drone wave: 21 of 25 RF UAVs (approx. 15 "Shaheds") were intercepted or suppressed by UAF (0638Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
C2/TECH (RF): Confirmed tactical employment of "Glaz/Groza" digital targeting system by RF drone operators to coordinate real-time strikes on UAF armor via digitized communication channels (0500Z, Грозные Птицы, MEDIUM).
AD/REAR (RF): Mobile fire groups ("Omerzitelnaya 8" and "Irish" units) are actively engaged in anti-drone operations on the Crimean Peninsula, indicating heightened UAF aerial pressure in the sector (0700Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
HUMANITARIAN: ICRC reports 182,000 missing persons requests related to the conflict from both sides, highlighting the massive scale of unverified casualties and displacement (0648Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
SOCIAL/LEGAL (RF): Putin signed a law lowering the age for the citizenship oath to 14, effective in 10 days; likely linked to long-term militarization and integration of youth in occupied territories (0649Z, ТАСС, HIGH).
AIR OPS (ACTIVE): New UAV ingress detected heading toward Chernihiv as of 0658Z (UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains focused on asymmetric aerial attrition and tactical-level digital integration. The 84% intercept rate of the most recent RF drone wave (21/25) suggests UAF air defenses remain effective against standard Shahed-class munitions, though localized threats persist in the North (Chernihiv). Winter conditions are influencing drone tactics, with UAF FPV units specifically targeting RF assets utilizing "snowy" camouflage or winterized positions (0648Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
C2 & Digital Integration: The use of "Glaz/Groza" software (0500Z) indicates a maturation of RF's kill-chain. By transferring coordinates from UAVs to fire teams via digital channels rather than voice, RF is reducing sensor-to-shooter latency. Claims of "hacks" on this system are currently denied by RF sources (0212Z).
Tactical Shifts: In the Vostok Grouping (Zaporizhzhia/South Donbas), the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade is prioritizing the destruction of Starlink terminals alongside armored vehicles (0700Z). This confirms a deliberate RF effort to degrade UAF's primary tactical communication layer.
Rear Security: Activation of "mobile fire groups" in Crimea suggests RF is forced to divert man-portable and technical-mounted AD assets to protect rear infrastructure from UAF loitering munitions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Morale & Public Sentiment: Sociological data (0657Z) indicates sustained high trust in the military (Zaluzhnyi) and political leadership (Zelenskyy), though a "gap" in trust distribution between different leadership levels is emerging. This is a critical vulnerability for RF Information Operations to exploit.
Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a nationwide "Minute of Silence" ritual (0900 local), which serves as a significant internal cohesion and resilience mechanism (0657Z-0701Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation Campaign (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Dempster-Shafer analysis (Score: 0.568) identifies an active disinformation effort. Specifically, a manipulated quote attributed to Donald Trump regarding "Russia wanting a successful Ukraine" is being circulated to sow confusion regarding Western support (0701Z).
Narrative Shaping: RF sources (Archangel Spetsnaza) are pre-positioning the narrative for operations "after Huliaipole," suggesting an attempt to project momentum in the Zaporizhzhia sector (0649Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue localized drone strikes in Chernihiv and Sumy to force UAF to maintain high-density AD coverage away from the Donbas front. RF drone teams will accelerate the targeting of Starlink terminals to "blind" UAF frontline units.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated digital-heavy assault in the Zaporizhzhia sector, leveraging "Glaz/Groza" integration and the momentum from the Primorske push to attempt a breakthrough of the secondary defensive line toward Stepnohirsk.
Kinetic: Expect continued drone activity in the Chernihiv axis. UAF likely to increase FPV sorties in winterized sectors to exploit RF stationary positions.
Information: Expect further manipulation of Western political quotes (Trump/Zaluzhnyi) to undermine UAF strategic stability.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Glaz/Groza Vulnerability: Technical SIGINT required to verify if the "Glaz/Groza" software has indeed been compromised or if the RF denial is a cover for a breach.
Missing Persons Data: Detailed breakdown of the 182,000 ICRC requests to identify specific units or regions with the highest loss rates.
Crimea UAV Activity: Identify the specific UAF assets causing the activation of RF mobile fire groups (e.g., new drone types or change in flight paths).
