AIR OPS (UA): Conducted a large-scale overnight UAV offensive against targets in the Russian Federation. RF MoD claims to have intercepted 89 drones between 2300-0700 MSK across multiple regions, including a concentrated wave of 23 drones over Novgorod Oblast within a two-hour window (TASS, 0622Z; ASTRA, 0632Z; HIGH).
AIR OPS (RF): UAF Air Force reports 21 enemy UAVs were shot down or suppressed overnight. As of 0628Z, drone incursions remain active in Chernihiv Oblast (Kholmy, Koryukivka) on a southern heading (UAF Air Force, 0633Z, 0628Z; HIGH).
C2/POLITICAL (UA): Multiple sources report that Valerii Zaluzhnyi is preparing to leave his diplomatic post in London to return to Kyiv in early January. While originating from Ukrainian media (NV), the narrative is being heavily amplified by Russian state media and milbloggers (TASS, 0614Z; Colonelcassad, 0633Z; MEDIUM - POTENTIAL C2 SHIFT).
WAR CRIMES (RF): Reports indicate Russian forces executed three Ukrainian POWs in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Evidence is currently based on DeepState visual data (ASTRA, 0606Z; MEDIUM - UNCONFIRMED).
LOGISTICS (RF): Field reports from Russian VDV (Airborne) units indicate a critical shortage of reconnaissance and strike drones, citing high loss rates and insufficient supply for artillery correction and assault support (Dnevnik Desantnika, 0607Z; MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC (GLOBAL): China has initiated large-scale military exercises near Taiwan, potentially impacting global ISR priorities and diplomatic bandwidth (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 0622Z; HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has entered a period of high-intensity asymmetric exchange. While ground forces in the Donbas are reorganizing (per previous report), both sides launched significant long-range drone strikes overnight. The Ukrainian raid on Novgorod—a deep-tier rear area—indicates a sustained capability to bypass RF integrated air defense systems (IADS) at scale. Weather in the north (Chernihiv) remains conducive to low-altitude UAV loitering.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Capabilities & Sustainment: Tactical-level attrition of Russian UAV stocks is reaching a "critical" point for VDV units (0607Z). This "drone gap" may temporarily degrade RF artillery effectiveness and small-unit coordination in active sectors like Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.
C-UAS/AD: RF maintains a layered defense, utilizing Osa-AKM SAM systems in the Orekhov direction to counter UAF RAM-2X loitering munitions (MoD Russia, 0630Z). However, the penetration of 23+ drones into Novgorod suggests localized saturation points.
Domestic/Legal: Putin's signing of laws incorporating religious symbols (crosses) into the state coat of arms and establishing "genocide" memorial days (0607Z, 0622Z) reflects a deepening of the "Holy War" narrative intended to sustain long-term mobilization.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Strategic Posture: The potential return of Zaluzhnyi suggests a restructuring of the domestic political-military balance following the "peace framework" talks with the US.
Offensive Reach: The overnight strike involving 89+ UAVs demonstrates high-volume production and mission planning maturity, targeting RF logistics and AD hubs in the deep rear (Novgorod/Krasnodar).
Public Sentiment: Sociological data indicates Ukrainians are entering 2026 in a state of "depression and hope," suggesting high resilience but also significant psychological fatigue (RBK-UA, 0628Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeting Zaluzhnyi: RF IO is aggressively amplifying the "Zaluzhnyi return" narrative. This is likely intended to sow discord within the UAF High Command and suggest a rift between political and military leadership following the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.
Social Control (RF): Enforcement of national messenger apps (Max) in Russian schools (Penza incident, 0623Z) indicates tightening digital domestic security and surveillance.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue localized drone incursions in the North (Chernihiv) to fix UAF air defense assets while attempting to finalize the integration of the 70th MRD reserves in the Donbas.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Following the "POW execution" report, RF forces in Zaporizhzhia may be initiating a "no-quarter" tactical shift to break Ukrainian morale in the Primorske direction, potentially leading to rapid localized escalations.
Global Synergy: Increased PLA activity near Taiwan (0622Z) may be leveraged by RF propaganda to suggest a waning of US focus on the Eastern European theater.
Operational picture (by sector)
Novgorod/RF Rear:ACTIVE. Significant BDA assessment required following UAF 23-drone wave.
Chernihiv (North):ACTIVE. Ongoing UAV presence near Koryukivka. High alert for localized strikes.
Zaporizhzhia (Orekhov/Primorske):HIGH TENSION. Kinetic drone/C-UAS duels (Osa-AKM vs RAM-2X). Psychological operations high following POW execution reports.
Kharkiv:KINETIC. Routine strikes on 4 settlements; RF 7th Regiment continuing "clearing" operations (as per previous daily report).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Expect continued long-range UAV activity from both sides. UAF likely to conduct BDA on Novgorod and Krasnodar targets.
Political: Official confirmation or denial of Zaluzhnyi’s return will likely trigger a surge in domestic Ukrainian and Russian narrative-shaping.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia War Crimes: Urgent need for secondary confirmation (signals or imagery) regarding the reported execution of 3 POWs to determine if this is an isolated incident or a command-directed shift in ROE.
Novgorod BDA: Identify specific targets (airfields, industry, or C2) of the 23-drone strike in Novgorod Oblast.
Zaluzhnyi Status: Monitor official Ukrainian government channels for formal statements regarding the London diplomatic post.
