STRATEGIC (UAF STRIKE): Russian MoD and state media confirm a massive Ukrainian UAV raid overnight; 89 aircraft-type drones reportedly intercepted across multiple regions, with a heavy concentration (49+) over Bryansk. (Operatsiya Z, 0514Z; TASS, 0443Z, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC (US-UA-RF): Donald Trump reportedly stated that Vladimir Putin is not currently agreeable to a ceasefire involving a Ukrainian referendum. Concurrently, reports suggest a potential direct call between Zelenskyy and Putin—the first in five years—following Sunday talks. (Tsaplienko, 0520Z; Operativnyi ZSU/Fox News, 0512Z, MEDIUM).
ATTRITION (RF): GS AFU reports 1,180 RF personnel casualties over the last 24-hour cycle, maintaining the high-intensity "burn rate" observed in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia sectors. (RBK-Ukraine, 0527Z, HIGH).
GEOPOLITICAL (EXTERNAL): China has reportedly mobilized military units around Taiwan as a "serious warning" against independence movements; potential for global ISR diversion. (Tsaplienko/CNN, 0526Z, MEDIUM).
LOGISTICS (UAF): The 4th Mechanized Battalion (Separate Presidential Brigade) confirms the operational deployment of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs/НРК) for high-risk night-time ammunition delivery to forward positions. (Ci4 Team, 1655Z 26 DEC, HIGH).
CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (ZAPORIZHZHIA): RF forces conducted 635 strikes across 18 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region over the last 24 hours. (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0517Z, HIGH).
C2/PERSONNEL (UAF): Unconfirmed reports suggest General Valerii Zaluzhnyi may be preparing to vacate his post as Ambassador to the UK. (Operativnyi ZSU/NV, 0528Z, LOW - UNCONFIRMED).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently defined by a massive UAF asymmetric strike into the RF rear and high-intensity RF bombardment in the South. The UAF’s 89-drone raid likely targeted the logistics hubs and aviation infrastructure (specifically AB Shaykovka assets) identified in the 28 DEC Daily Report. In the Southern sector, the intensity of RF strikes (635 in 24 hours) indicates a preparatory phase for further mechanized advances following the seizure of Kosovtsevo. Geopolitically, the focus remains on the outcome of the Zelenskyy-Trump summit, while the Taiwan Strait escalation may impact the availability of Western ISR assets for the Eastern European theater.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Aviation Posture: Fighterbomber assets (Su-34/35) were active at dawn (0507Z), likely loitering for standoff strikes or conducting Combat Air Patrols (CAP) in response to the overnight drone raid.
Tactical Adaptations: The use of FPV drones against civilian/tactical targets in Marhanets (0530Z) shows continued "slow-bleed" pressure on the Dnipro River's right bank. Domestic morale is being propped up by state-media features on "frontline holiday spirit" (Brigade "Volki" crafts), masking the high casualty rates reported by the ZSU.
Logistics/Rear Security: The penetration of 89 drones suggests gaps in the RF's "layered" AD network when facing high-volume saturation. Bryansk remains the primary vulnerability for RF logistics supporting the northern axis.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Technical Superiority: The 4th Mechanized Battalion’s successful use of UGVs for night logistics (1655Z 26 DEC) represents a critical adaptation to the "FPV-saturated" battlefield. Moving supplies via ground robots significantly reduces personnel exposure in the "last mile" of the logistics chain.
Asymmetric Reach: The scale of the overnight UAV operation (89 units) confirms that UAF deep-strike capabilities are not only intact but expanding, despite the heavy RF strikes on Naftogaz and energy infrastructure reported yesterday.
Unit Morale: Morale remains stable, supported by religious/chaplaincy engagement during the Christmas period (Ci4 Team, 25 DEC) and successful crowdfunded equipment deliveries.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Messaging: RF state media is highlighting Apple’s removal of the "Hornet" app (0513Z) and local social issues (carsharing/lemonade contamination) to distract the domestic population from the Bryansk strikes and high casualty counts.
Diplomatic "Spoiler" Narrative: Trump’s leaked comments regarding Putin’s refusal of a ceasefire referendum (0520Z) serve to manage expectations. It frames Putin as the intransigent party, potentially strengthening the case for continued Western military aid if negotiations stall.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a significant retaliatory missile strike within the next 6-12 hours targeting UAF UAV production facilities or launch sites, utilizing the prepped Tu-22M3s at AB Shaykovka.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the 635-strike preparation in Zaporizhzhia to launch a multi-regiment breakthrough toward Primorske, attempting to capitalize on UAF focus on the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis.
Technical Forecast: Expect continued GPS/Radio instability due to the Class-M solar flares noted in previous reports.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia:CRITICAL. Massive RF fire volume (635 strikes) suggests an imminent offensive push.
Pokrovsk/Dobropillya:ACTIVE/KINETIC. Continued focus for both sides; UAF using FPV drones to disrupt RF mobility and artillery (D-30 targets).
Bryansk/RF Rear:ACTIVE/DEEP STRIKE. Major UAF success in penetrating AD; BDA pending for logistics impacts.
Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopol/Marhanets):THREATENED. Increased RF FPV drone usage against local infrastructure.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Expect a heavy RF aerial response to the 89-drone raid.
Tactical: High probability of UAF using more UGVs for frontline resupply as weather/FPV threats remain high.
Strategic: Focus on official readouts from the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting for signals of a shift in US support posture.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Bryansk BDA: Specific identification of targets hit during the 89-drone raid (Ammunition depots vs. Airfields).
Primorske Order of Battle: Identification of any fresh RF mechanized units moving into the Primorske/Zaporizhzhia sector.
Zaluzhnyi Status: Confirmation of diplomatic personnel changes at the UK Embassy.
