AIR DOMAIN (STRATEGIC): Russia reports a massive Ukrainian UAV raid overnight, claiming 89 drones intercepted across multiple regions, with 49 specifically targeted at Bryansk. (0443Z, TASS; 0448Z, Bogomaz, HIGH).
OPERATIONAL (POKROVSK): Pro-Russian sources claim RF UAV units are established in "Krasnoarmeisk" (Pokrovsk), suggesting deeper penetration or presence in the city's outskirts. (0501Z, Colonelcassad, LOW - UNCONFIRMED).
OPERATIONAL (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Russian forces reportedly seized Kosovtsevo and have initiated engagements for Dobropillya, continuing the widening of the southern offensive. (0501Z, Rybar, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC (US-UA): Reports indicate the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting may establish a pathway for the first direct communication between Kyiv and the Kremlin in over five years. (0444Z, RBK-Ukraine/Fox News, MEDIUM).
ENVIRONMENTAL: Three Class-M solar flares recorded; potential for localized GPS and high-frequency radio degradation. (0454Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
TACTICAL (AIR): UAF Air Force reports Shahed-type UAVs active in western Donetsk, transitioning on a northerly heading. (0448Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted toward high-volume deep strikes and tactical expansion in the south. The overnight UAF drone campaign (89+ units) represents a significant surge in long-range aviation activity, likely targeting RF logistics or aviation hubs in response to the AB Shaykovka readiness spike (noted in 28 DEC Daily Report). Weather conditions are becoming a primary operational factor, with a severe cold front (-19°C) projected for the Moscow region, likely to affect theater-wide logistics and personnel endurance within 72 hours.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Tactical Progress: The reported "liberation" of Kosovtsevo (0501Z) aligns with the RF's stated goal of widening the Zaporizhzhia offensive breadth. This pressure on the Southern front is designed to fix UAF reserves and prevent their redeployment to the Pokrovsk sector.
Pokrovsk Status: Claims of RF UAV units operating from within Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk) (0501Z) suggest that the "temporary defensive anchor" established by the UAF 7th Corps (DShV) is under severe pressure. If RF drone teams have moved into the urban periphery, UAF GLOCs into the city center are likely under persistent FPV oversight.
Capabilities: Continued reliance on high-intensity infantry "clearing" (noted in previous reports) remains the primary RF tactic, though the introduction of holiday-themed propaganda indicates a pivot toward maintaining domestic morale during the winter offensive.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Strategic Strike Capability: The execution of a multi-region drone raid (89 UAVs) demonstrates high-level coordination and the ability to bypass RF's integrated air defense systems in regions like Bryansk. This serves as a "counter-spoiler" to the projected RF missile strike from AB Shaykovka.
Operational Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking Shahed penetrations in the Donetsk sector (0448Z), indicating that RF is maintaining its "slow-bleed" drone pressure even while preparing larger strikes.
Attrition: GS AFU reports 1,180 RF casualties over the last 24 hours (0447Z). This high attrition rate reflects the intensity of the "burning out" operations in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Diplomatic Signaling: The Fox News report (0444Z) regarding potential Putin-Zelenskyy talks is likely being utilized by both sides to manage expectations. For Ukraine, it signals a pragmatic approach to the Trump administration; for Russia, it supports the narrative of Western "fatigue."
Internal RF Sentiment: RF channels are blending reports of "strong frost" and holiday decorations with combat footage (0443Z, 0459Z, 0501Z). This aims to normalize the war effort during the festive season while distracting from the high casualty rates.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify the push from Kosovtsevo toward Dobropillya to compromise the UAF's southern flank. Concurrently, expect an RF "retaliation" strike for the overnight 89-drone raid, potentially utilizing the Tu-22M3 assets prepped at AB Shaykovka.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF achieves a breakthrough in the northern industrial sector of Pokrovsk, using the reported UAV positions to "blind" UAF 7th Corps defenses, leading to an urban encirclement before the -19°C cold snap stabilizes the ground.
Technical Prediction: Solar flare activity (Class-M) (0454Z) may cause intermittent failure in tactical drone links and satellite-guided munitions over the next 6-12 hours.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk:CONTESTED/HIGH THREAT. RF claims of UAV presence in the city outskirts must be verified via SIGINT/Visual reconnaissance.
Zaporizhzhia (Eastern):DETERIORATING. Loss of Kosovtsevo (if confirmed) places increased pressure on the Hychur/Yanchur river lines.
Bryansk/RF Rear:ACTIVE. Significant UAF drone activity indicates a sustained campaign against RF staging areas.
Donetsk (Western):KINETIC. Persistent Shahed activity indicates ongoing RF attempts to identify UAF AD gaps.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: High probability of a mass-missile response from RF long-range aviation following the UAF drone raid.
Environmental: Monitoring for GPS instability due to solar flares.
Tactical: Increased RF pressure on Dobropillya to capitalize on recent gains in Kosovtsevo.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pokrovsk Urban Penetration: Immediate BDA/ISR required to confirm or deny RF presence in Krasnoarmeisk/Pokrovsk municipal limits.
UAV Raid Effects: Identify specific targets hit in the Bryansk/RF rear raid to assess impact on RF logistics for the Kupyansk/Oskil sector.
Solar Effects: Monitor tactical comms for reports of "dead zones" or GPS jamming that may be environmental rather than electronic warfare (EW).
