STRATEGIC (GLOBAL): China has commenced large-scale military exercises involving the navy, air force, and ground troops surrounding Taiwan. (0433Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
HYBRID OPS (RF-US): Leonid Slutsky (RF State Duma) claimed that "secret communications" between the Duma and US Congress have persisted throughout periods of high tension. (0422Z, TASS, LOW - UNCONFIRMED).
CYBER/INFOSEC: A widespread Telegram account hijacking campaign is active, using "active user prizes" and "advent calendars" as phishing lures. (0411Z, TASS/F6, HIGH).
REGIONAL (CENTRAL ASIA): Former Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev has been stripped of all state awards by decree of President Japarov. (0423Z, TASS, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from a regional focus to a multi-theater strategic challenge. The initiation of Chinese drills around Taiwan (0433Z) creates a "dual-crisis" scenario that may impact US/NATO attention and resource allocation toward Ukraine. Domestically, Ukraine continues its integration into NATO protocols via Article 5 rehearsals (reported 0359Z). Tactically, the situation on the Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia axes remains tense, with no new kinetic updates in the last 30 minutes, suggesting a pre-dawn tactical lull or reorganization.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Hybrid Signaling: Slutsky’s claim regarding "secret talks" with the US (0422Z) is assessed as a classic Information Operation (IO) intended to sow distrust between Kyiv and Washington following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. By suggesting back-channel legitimacy, the RF seeks to undermine the perception of a unified Western front.
Cyber Domain: The Telegram phishing surge (0411Z) directly threatens Ukrainian military and volunteer communication channels. Given the high reliance on Telegram for tactical coordination, this is assessed as a precursor to attempts at breaching personnel accounts for ISR or sabotage.
Strategic Alignment: The timing of the Chinese drills around Taiwan likely coordinates with RF objectives to dilute Western maritime and ISR focus.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Operational Status: UAF remains in a high-readiness posture. Participation in NATO Article 5 simulations (0359Z) indicates a move toward procedural "de facto" membership to deter the RF's Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA).
Vulnerabilities: Heavy reliance on mobile applications for C2 makes the reported Telegram phishing campaign a significant operational security (OPSEC) risk for front-line units.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russia: State media is balancing "normalcy" (domestic regulations) with "heroic" military imagery (VDV videos) and strategic "leakage" about diplomatic back-channels.
Ukraine/Global: The Taiwan escalation is dominating the international headline space, which the RF will likely exploit to conduct localized high-intensity operations with reduced international scrutiny.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF forces will utilize the global distraction caused by the Taiwan drills to execute the projected mechanized push in Kupyansk or Primorske within the next 4–8 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF initiates the "spoiler" mass-missile strike (noted in the 28 DEC Daily Report regarding AB Shaykovka) while US/NATO theater assets are redirected or focused on the Pacific escalation.
Cyber Prediction: Targeted phishing of ZSU officers/volunteers will intensify over the next 24h to capitalize on the Telegram vulnerability.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk:PRE-OFFENSIVE LULL. Monitoring for "Omich" robotic river crossings.
Pokrovsk:STABLE. 7th Corps (DShV) holding industrial anchors.
Cyber/Rear:CRITICAL VULNERABILITY. Increased risk to Telegram-based C2.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Frontline: High probability of breakthrough attempts in the Oskil river sector.
Strategic: High risk of coordinated RF missile activity coinciding with the Taiwan drills to overwhelm global monitoring capacity.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sino-Russian Coordination: Determine if there is direct SIGINT or ELINT evidence of coordination between the RF MoD and PLA regarding the timing of Taiwan drills and RF offensive spikes.
Back-channel Verification: Confirm through liaison channels if the Slutsky claims (secret Duma-Congress talks) have any basis in fact or are pure disinformation.
Cyber Attribution: Determine if the Telegram phishing scheme is purely criminal or state-sponsored (APT-linked) targeting Ukrainian military numbers.
