STRATEGIC (NATO-UKR): Ukraine has for the first time joined the simulation/rehearsal of NATO Article 5 protocols, according to the General Staff of the ZSU. (0359Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
RF INFORMATION OPS: Increased dissemination of militarized "patriotic" media and morale-boosting content (e.g., "Russian Stroy" music videos) across VDV and major milblogger channels, likely intended to sustain offensive momentum. (0340Z, Dva Mayora; 0401Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM).
RF INTERNAL: Russian state media (TASS) is prioritizing domestic regulatory news (GOST standards for entertainment), continuing a trend of projecting "business as usual" to the domestic population despite frontline intensity. (0348Z, TASS, HIGH).
RF OPERATIONAL POSTURE: Morning summaries from major RF milblogger aggregates confirm continued high-intensity focus on "SVO" operations, though specific tactical gains are currently omitted from initial headlines. (0340Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a significant strategic pivot following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. The announcement of Ukraine’s participation in NATO Article 5 rehearsals (0359Z) serves as a potent counter-signal to RF narratives of Western abandonment. Tactically, the battlefield remains focused on the Kupyansk and Western Zaporizhzhia axes (per 28 DEC Daily Report). No major weather shifts are reported; however, the lack of new kinetic strikes in the last 30 minutes suggests a reorganization period before projected daylight offensives.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Psychological Operations: The simultaneous release of high-production morale videos by VDV-linked channels (0401Z) and "Dva Mayora" (0340Z) suggests a coordinated effort to maintain esprit de corps. This often precedes or accompanies high-casualty "clearing" operations, such as those conducted by the 7th Regiment in Kharkiv.
Logistics & Rear: Domestic focus on trivial regulations (0348Z) indicates the Kremlin's desire to compartmentalize the war from the civilian "normalcy" of the Russian interior, despite the previous "yellow alert" status in regions like Lipetsk.
Course of Action: RF is likely synthesizing ISR data gathered from overnight drone strikes on UAF robotic platforms (0332Z) to finalize targeting for a morning mechanized push.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Integration: Ukraine's participation in Article 5 rehearsals is a milestone in operational interoperability. This is assessed as a deliberate signaling move to deter the "Most Dangerous Course of Action" (MDCOA) involving tactical nuclear or large-scale strategic escalation.
Force Posture: UAF remains in a defensive crouch in the Kupyansk sector, leveraging robotic platforms to maintain the screen. The stabilization of northern Pokrovsk by the 7th Corps (DShV) remains the primary defensive anchor in the Donbas.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Ukraine: Focusing on high-level NATO integration to bolster domestic morale and international legitimacy.
Russia: Utilizing music and "soldier-poet" narratives (0340Z) to romanticize the conflict for a domestic audience, while masking the attrition rates (4,400 claimed UAF losses) cited in earlier reports.
Disinformation: Expect RF sources to frame the Article 5 rehearsal participation as "direct NATO involvement," potentially using it as a pretext for further infrastructure strikes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a series of localized mechanized assaults in the Kupyansk and Primorske (Zaporizhzhia) directions within the next 6 hours, supported by heavy OWA-UAV (drone) activity to neutralize UAF's technical screen.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF interprets the Article 5 news as a "red line" crossing and initiates a mass-missile strike (utilizing the high readiness at AB Shaykovka noted in the 28 DEC report) targeting C2 nodes and the capital during the morning transition.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk:CONSOLIDATING. RF "Zapad" Group is expected to follow up on drone successes against UAF UGVs.
Zaporizhzhia (Primorske):HIGH ALERT. Widening offensive breadth threatens the southern defensive belt; monitor for UGV deployments.
Pokrovsk:STABLE. UAF 7th Corps holding northern industrial sectors.
Frontline: High probability of a multi-regimental ground assault in the Kupyansk/Oskil river area.
Strategic: Monitor for RF reaction to the Article 5 simulation news; potential for escalatory rhetoric from the Kremlin or MoD.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
NATO Simulation Scope: Determine the specific nature of Ukraine's participation in the Article 5 rehearsal (e.g., cyber, maritime, or combined arms simulation).
RF Aviation Status: Confirm if the Tu-22M3s at AB Shaykovka have commenced engine starts or taxiing following the SAR "Rising" score (44.37).
Robotic Attrition: Identify if UAF has successfully deployed replacement UGVs to the Kupyansk sector following the losses reported at 0332Z.
