KINETIC (AERIAL): Secondary wave of KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches detected targeting Kharkiv Oblast from the east. (0225Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC: Confirmation that the "Coalition of the Willing" summit will occur in Paris in January to determine specific security contributions from each participant. (0220Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
UNCONFIRMED CLAIM (TERRITORIAL): RF state media claims the capture of 12 settlements across the theater in the past seven days; specific locations not provided. (0210Z, TASS, LOW).
STRATEGIC (RESOURCES): RF Ministry of Natural Resources announced industrial lithium production targets by 2030, signaling long-term defense-industrial autonomy goals. (0207Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus remains on the Kharkiv-Kupyansk axis, where the RF is sustaining a high-frequency aerial bombardment cycle. The battlefield geometry suggests a deliberate effort to suppress UAF forward defensive positions and command nodes on the eastern approaches to Kharkiv. Weather continues to favor drone-led harassment and localized tactical movements. Strategically, the RF is pivoting toward a narrative of "irreversible momentum" by claiming significant territorial gains over the past week, though these lack geolocation confirmation.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (Kharkiv/Kupyansk): The 0225Z KAB launches represent a sustained effort to maintain "fire superiority" and degrade UAF fortifications. This correlates with the presence of "Omich" amphibious robots (identified in the 1500Z Daily Report), suggesting that aerial suppression is a prerequisite for a near-term riverine assault.
Intent (Information Ops): The TASS report (0210Z) claiming 12 captured settlements is likely a morale-boosting measure intended to offset the diplomatic signaling from Paris.
Sustainment/Logistics: The lithium production announcement (0207Z) indicates the RF is planning for a multi-year conflict, focusing on domestic supply chains for high-tech components (batteries for UAVs/communications) to mitigate long-term sanctions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Diplomatic Posture: UAF security guarantees are transitioning from abstract promises to concrete "contributions" via the January Paris summit. This provides a clear timeline for strategic planning through Q1 2026.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is successfully maintaining early warning coverage (EW) for KAB launches, providing critical lead time for tactical units to seek cover.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Propaganda: Significant effort to project military success (12 settlements) and industrial resilience (lithium/Mizulina social messaging).
Western Support: Macron’s "Coalition of the Willing" is being framed in the Ukrainian environment as a "Paris Guarantee," providing a counter-weight to RF psychological operations regarding Western fatigue.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB strikes in the Kharkiv sector every 2-4 hours to prevent UAF rotation and fortification. In the next 6-12 hours, expect small-unit "probing" attacks in the Kupyansk sector to test the effectiveness of the recent aerial suppression.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis assault combining the 0225Z KAB wave with the "Omich" robotic platforms for an immediate Oskil River crossing, aimed at establishing a bridgehead before UAF can reinforce the sector.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Kupyansk:ACTIVE / HIGH THREAT. Under continuous KAB bombardment. RF 7th Regiment likely repositioning for ground follow-up.
Donetsk:STEADY. Sustained pressure; awaiting confirmation of the "12 settlements" claimed by RF MOD.
Zaporizhzhia:KINETIC. Continued 14th Spetsnaz drone operations (as per 0205Z Sitrep).
Strategic Rear:THREATENED. OWA-UAV waves previously detected moving toward Dnipropetrovsk remain a concern for logistics hubs.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Tactical: Expect high-intensity KAB activity to transition into localized ground assaults in the Kharkiv sector.
Operational: Monitor for the integration of "Katran" USVs in the Black Sea and the launch of Tu-22M3s from AB Shaykovka (SAR Score 44.37) as a "spoiler" to the Macron announcement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verification of Territorial Claims: Urgent requirement to identify the "12 settlements" claimed by TASS (0210Z) via satellite imagery or ground recon.
KAB Impact Assessment: Determine if the 0225Z strikes targeted UAF electronic warfare (EW) assets or air defense batteries specifically.
Lithium Infrastructure: Map potential RF lithium processing sites to assess their vulnerability to long-range kinetic effects in the 2026-2030 window.
