NEW CAPABILITY (NAVAL): RF announced serial production of the "Katran" Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV). (0142Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
KINETIC (AERIAL): Confirmed KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches targeting Donetsk Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk sector). (0145Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
KINETIC (UAV): OWA-UAV vector detected from southern Kharkiv Oblast moving toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (0149Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
TACTICAL (ZAPORIZHZHIA): Video evidence indicates 14th Guard Spetsnaz Brigade and 5th Army (Group Vostok) conducting coordinated drone strikes against UAF infantry in treelines. (0205Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC: President Macron announced a "Coalition of the Willing" meeting scheduled for early January. (0201Z, TASS, HIGH).
INFORMATION OPERATIONS: RF channels launched a targeted recruitment campaign/propaganda effort aimed at soliciting collaboration from Ukrainian citizens. (0200Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH intent / LOW confidence in efficacy).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasing across three distinct vectors: (1) The Kupyansk sector is under heavy aerial bombardment (KABs), likely in preparation for riverine operations; (2) The OWA-UAV threat to the Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad logistics hub is now multi-vector, with a new wave transiting from southern Kharkiv; (3) RF is signaling a transition to mass-produced naval drone capabilities (Katran). Environmental factors (winter storm/mealy snow) are being leveraged by RF Spetsnaz for drone-based harassment in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities (Naval): The announcement of "Katran" USV serial production (0142Z) indicates an RF attempt to contest the Black Sea using asymmetric platforms similar to UAF's Magura/Sea Baby systems.
Course of Action (Kupyansk): KAB strikes at 0145Z directly support the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) identified in the 1500Z Daily Report—a riverine breakthrough using "Omich" robots. Bombing is likely targeting defensive positions on the Oskil River's western bank.
Course of Action (Tactical): In Zaporizhzhia, the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade is utilizing winter conditions to mask drone signatures, targeting infantry in treelines to degrade defensive manning ahead of the Primorske offensive expansion.
Logistics/Sustainment: Internal RF regulatory shifts regarding pyrotechnics and real estate suggest a tightening of domestic security and resource control to support the "Special Military Operation" (SMO) into 2026.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Air Defense: UAF Air Force continues active tracking and interception efforts across Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk. The multi-vector UAV approach (South and Kharkiv) is testing AD density around the Pavlohrad rail junction.
Defensive Posture: UAF infantry in Zaporizhzhia treelines are under high pressure from coordinated FPV/reconnaissance drone pairs (Vostok Group).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic IO: Macron's "Coalition of the Willing" announcement (0201Z) is being amplified by RF state media to frame Western involvement as escalating, likely to justify future "spoiler" strikes.
Hybrid Tactics: The recruitment drive via Colonelcassad (0200Z) indicates a renewed focus on internal sabotage and human intelligence (HUMINT) gathering within Ukraine to support rear-area targeting.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the KAB pressure on Kupyansk for the next 6 hours to fix UAF forces while the UAV swarm from Kharkiv/South converges on Dnipropetrovsk logistics nodes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Integration of "Katran" USVs with a mass-missile strike from AB Shaykovka (SAR Score 44.37) targeting Odesa port infrastructure and central energy hubs simultaneously within the 0400Z-0800Z window.
Donetsk:ACTIVE. Localized KAB strikes and sustained pressure on UAF tactical rear.
Dnipropetrovsk (Pavlohrad):THREATENED. Converging UAV waves from two vectors.
Zaporizhzhia:KINETIC. Spetsnaz-led drone operations confirmed in winter conditions.
Black Sea:EMERGING THREAT. Serial production of RF USVs (Katran) initiated.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Tactical: High probability of a localized RF attempt to cross the Oskil river or seize key treelines in Zaporizhzhia under the cover of the current aerial bombardment.
Strategic: Monitor for Tu-22M3 sorties from AB Shaykovka. The "Coalition of the Willing" announcement provides the RF with the necessary domestic narrative to launch a major "retaliatory" strike.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Katran USV Specs: Immediate requirement for technical specifications of the "Katran" USV (range, payload, guidance).
Kupyansk Damage: BDA required for KAB strikes (0145Z) to determine if UAF anti-tank or river-crossing denial assets were neutralized.
Collaboration Networks: Monitor for increased localized sabotage/signaling in the wake of the 0200Z propaganda push.
