KINETIC (DEEP STRIKE): Reported drone activity and an explosion in Krasnodar Krai, RF, occurring late evening 28 DEC (0116Z, RBC-Ukraine, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
INFORMATION OPERATIONS (RF): Shift in narrative regarding the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, now utilizing Western voices (ex-CIA Larry Johnson) to claim zero progress in peace talks (0115Z, TASS, HIGH confidence in IO intent / LOW confidence in content).
DOMESTIC (RF): Russian State Duma announced a new working group targeting real estate transaction legislation (0122Z, TASS, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains defined by the ongoing OWA-UAV threat toward the Pavlohrad logistics hub (noted in previous sitrep) and an emerging reports of Ukrainian deep strike activity within the Russian Federation (Krasnodar Krai). The Russian Information Environment has transitioned from "positioning" to "discrediting" following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, signaling an attempt to preemptively frame the diplomatic outcomes as a failure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (Tactical): The RF continues to press the Dnipropetrovsk axis via OWA-UAVs launched from occupied Zaporizhzhia. While no new kinetic impacts are confirmed in the last hour, the threat to the Pavlohrad rail junction remains the primary operational concern for UAF logistics.
Information Warfare: The use of "Western experts" (0115Z) to validate RF narratives is a standard reflex to international diplomatic engagement. By framing the Mar-a-Lago meeting as "not moving the needle," the RF seeks to diminish the perceived value of US-UA alignment.
Rear Security: The reported explosion in Krasnodar (0116Z) suggests continued UAF or partisan ability to penetrate RF integrated air defense systems (IADS) in the Southern Military District, potentially targeting fuel/lubricant (POL) hubs or transit points supporting the Zaporizhzhia front.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Deep Strike Capability: If the Krasnodar reports are verified, it indicates a high level of operational reach despite the intense electronic warfare environment.
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense remains engaged with the UAV wave transiting Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. No reports of exhaustion have surfaced, but the duration of the alert (spanning several hours) indicates a persistent harassment tactic by the RF.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: RF propaganda is currently saturating the "diplomatic failure" narrative. Belief scores (0.01-0.09) for peace or ceasefire agreements remain extremely low, while scores for internal Russian legal challenges and sabotage (0.21) are rising, suggesting a jittery domestic environment in the RF.
Domestic Control: The focus on real estate legislation (0122Z) may be an indicator of further tightening of internal controls or efforts to manage assets of "foreign agents" or those who have fled the country.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the UAV pressure on central logistics hubs (Pavlohrad) to facilitate the broader Zaporizhzhia/Primorske offensive (referenced in Daily Report). IO will intensify the "useless meeting" narrative throughout the Monday morning news cycle.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Double Tap" strike involving the Tu-22M3 bombers staged at AB Shaykovka (Daily Report SAR Score 44.37) targeting the energy or transport infrastructure in the Pavlohrad/Dnipro corridor to coincide with the conclusion of the OWA-UAV wave.
Operational picture (by sector)
Krasnodar Krai (RF):ACTIVE THREAT. Unconfirmed drone strike/explosion reported. Likely targeting logistics supporting the Southern Front.
Dnipropetrovsk (Pavlohrad):CRITICAL AREA. OWA-UAV ingress continues. Rail throughput is at high risk.
Zaporizhzhia: No new kinetic updates; previous high-priority alerts remain in effect.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Tactical: Expect Battle Damage Assessments (BDA) regarding the Pavlohrad axis and potential confirmation of the Krasnodar strike.
Strategic: High probability of a significant RF aerial strike (Missile/UAV) before 0800Z to re-assert dominance following the Zelenskyy-Trump diplomatic window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Krasnodar Target ID: Identify the specific facility affected by the reported explosion (0116Z). Priority: Port infrastructure or POL storage.
UAV Attrition Rates: Confirm the intercept rate for the swarm targeting Pavlohrad to assess current AD stock levels in the sector.
Internal RF Legal Shift: Analyze the intent of the Duma real estate working group—is this a move to seize assets of dissenters?
