KINETIC (UAV): RF launched One-Way Attack (OWA) UAVs from occupied Zaporizhzhia, transiting toward eastern Dnipropetrovsk (0037Z, AF UAF, HIGH).
KINETIC (LOGISTICS): OWA-UAVs are currently tracking toward/past Pavlohrad, a critical logistics and rail hub (0059Z, AF UAF, HIGH).
INFORMATION OPERATIONS (RF): RF state media (TASS) is reporting that Donald Trump "understands" Putin's rejection of a temporary ceasefire, citing concerns over Ukrainian referendum preparations (0038Z, TASS, LOW confidence in content/ HIGH confidence in IO intent).
KINETIC (REGIONAL): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (OVA) re-issued a high-priority alert (0039Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS (RF): Pro-RF mil-bloggers are circulating imagery of mass graves allegedly containing 15 UAF personnel to undermine morale (0104Z, Colonelcassad, LOW confidence/Propaganda).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted from the strategic ballistic threat (cleared at 0029Z) to a localized OWA-UAV (Shahed-type) attack vectoring toward the Dnipropetrovsk industrial and logistics hub. The threat originates from the Southern axis, specifically occupied Zaporizhzhia. Concurrently, the Russian Federation (RF) has intensified its cognitive domain operations, attempting to leverage the US political transition to demoralize Ukrainian forces and international partners.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions: The focus on Pavlohrad (0059Z) indicates an intent to disrupt Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) and rail throughput supporting the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors. By launching UAVs immediately after a ballistic alert, the RF is likely attempting to exhaust Air Defense (AD) crews and exploit gaps in sensor coverage.
Information Warfare Adaptations: The TASS report regarding Trump's alleged "understanding" of Putin's position (0038Z) is a sophisticated attempt to frame the US as being in alignment with RF strategic objectives. This is a clear attempt to isolate Kyiv diplomatically following the Mar-a-Lago meeting.
Morale Suppression: The release of mass grave imagery (0104Z) is a classic psychological operation (PSYOP) timed to coincide with high-stress night operations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF Air Defense is actively tracking the UAV swarm through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Regional administrations are maintaining high alert levels, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk.
Constraints: The repeated alert cycles (ballistic followed by UAV) place significant strain on C2 and personnel readiness.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: RF propaganda is currently multi-pronged:
Strategic: Using TASS to project a Russian-US consensus that excludes Ukraine.
Tactical: Using mil-bloggers to visually represent UAF losses to degrade frontline morale.
Domestic: Promoting narratives of economic stability and digital advancement (e.g., non-cash payment growth, 0052Z) to reassure the RF domestic audience.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Belief scores (0.27) strongly support a high-intensity propaganda effort, specifically focused on the "no ceasefire" narrative to discourage Ukrainian resistance.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the UAV ingress toward Pavlohrad and potentially the Dnipro city outskirts. These strikes are likely targeting rail infrastructure to slow the arrival of Western-supplied munitions or UAF reserves.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The current UAV swarm acts as a "shaping" element to identify active AD radars for a follow-on precision strike (Kh-59/69 or Iskander-M) targeting the Pavlohrad rail junction within the next 3-6 hours.
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk (Pavlohrad):CRITICAL THREAT. Current vector for OWA-UAVs. High risk of kinetic impact on transportation infrastructure.
Zaporizhzhia: High tactical tension. Continued alerts (0039Z) suggest RF may be preparing localized tactical aviation strikes or MLRS fire to support the UAV ingress.
RF Interior: Continued focus on domestic economic messaging to offset the visibility of the "Deep Strike" threats (Tula) mentioned in the previous report.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Expect active AD engagements in the Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad sector. There is a high probability of "Double Tap" strikes if initial UAVs identify high-value targets.
Information: RF will likely amplify the "no ceasefire" narrative, potentially fabricating or distorting quotes from Western officials to create a sense of diplomatic abandonment.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
UAV Launch Quantities: Determine the number of UAVs in the current wave to assess if this is a minor harassment raid or a major logistics disruption attempt.
Pavlohrad BDA: Real-time monitoring of the Pavlohrad rail hub for potential impacts or fire starts.
Verification of Trump Claims: Diplomatic channels must clarify the veracity of the TASS report (0038Z) to counter-message the "US-RF alignment" narrative.
