KINETIC (STRATEGIC): UAF Air Force issued a nationwide alert for ballistic missile threats originating from the North (0011Z, AF UAF, HIGH). The threat was cleared at 0029Z (AF UAF, HIGH).
KINETIC (RF REAR):UNCONFIRMED reports indicate RF air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile over Tula, RF (0029Z, NgP RaZVedka, LOW).
DIPLOMATIC: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni issued a formal statement demanding Russia demonstrate "responsibility and openness to negotiations," specifically calling for a cessation of hostilities (0007Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
INFORMATION OPERATIONS (RF): RF state media is amplifying quotes from Donald Trump blaming US Democrats for hindering "mutually beneficial" US-Russia trade (0022Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
KINETIC (REGIONAL): Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration issued an urgent "ATTENTION" alert, indicating localized kinetic activity or imminent strike risk (0034Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains high-tempo, characterized by a transition from the heavy thermobaric employment reported in the previous cycle to a synchronized ballistic missile threat cycle. The "ballistic threat from the North" (0011Z) likely utilized launchers in Bryansk or Kursk oblasts. The diplomatic sphere is currently a battleground of competing narratives following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting: Italy (Meloni) is reinforcing the "cessation of hostilities" requirement, while RF state media attempts to leverage US domestic political friction (trade comments) to undermine Western unity.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions: RF continues to utilize ballistic assets to maintain psychological pressure on the Ukrainian rear. The 18-minute threat window (0011Z-0029Z) suggests a "launch-on-warning" or a probing action intended to map UAF air defense responses following the earlier SAR surge at AB Shaykovka.
Tactical Adaptations: RF is pivoting its Information Operations (IO) to focus on economic "lost opportunities" (trade narratives), likely targeting Western business interests and populist segments of the US electorate.
Logistics and Sustainment: The reported fire at a heritage site in Vladivostok (0026Z) is likely non-military but may impact local emergency response capacity in a key Pacific logistics hub.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF Air Defense remains at a high state of readiness. The rapid detection and subsequent "all-clear" for the ballistic threat indicates effective C2 and sensor integration.
Tactical Successes: If the Tula interception (0029Z) is confirmed as a UAF-launched ballistic asset, it represents a significant deep-strike capability intended to disrupt RF C2 or logistics in the Tula industrial hub (a major center for RF missile production).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: A narrative divergence is appearing. Meloni's statement acts as a "diplomatic anchor" for the EU/NATO position, countering the RF narrative that the Mar-a-Lago talks were an "empty shell."
Dempster-Shafer Support: Belief scores (0.18) support a coordinated Western diplomatic advancement. However, the 0.24 uncertainty score reflects the fluid nature of the US-UA-RF triangle following recent high-level meetings.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain "pulsed" ballistic threats over the next 12 hours to disrupt Ukrainian morning logistics and civilian morale. Concurrently, RF will intensify "Primorske direction" offensive actions in Zaporizhzhia (following the 0034Z alert).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF executes a multi-axis "shaping" strike: a massed ballistic salvo from the North combined with a mechanized push toward Primorske to exploit the diversion of UAF tactical reserves.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Border: Active launch zone for ballistic threats. High surveillance required for Iskander-M/KN-23 movements.
Zaporizhzhia (Primorske/Huliaipole):KINETIC INCREASE. The OVA alert (0034Z) suggests imminent tactical aviation or MLRS activity targeting the southern defensive belt.
RF Interior (Tula):POTENTIAL DEEP STRIKE ZONE. Monitor for BDA or secondary explosions confirming UAF engagement of industrial targets.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Anticipate localized tactical escalation in Zaporizhzhia. High probability of Su-34/Su-35 sorties following the ballistic alert cycle.
Diplomatic: Expect further statements from G7 partners (likely France or Germany) to align with Meloni's "responsibility" narrative.
Information: RF media will likely play up the Mexico train derailment (0007Z) or internal RF fires (0026Z) to distract from frontline developments or deep-strike reports.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Tula Event Verification: Urgent requirement for SIGINT/IMINT to confirm if a UAF asset reached Tula or if the "interception" was a malfunction or AD training exercise.
Bryansk/Kursk Launchers: Identify specific launch sites used for the 0011Z ballistic threat to facilitate counter-battery drone strikes.
Zaporizhzhia Force Composition: Identify if the 0034Z alert is linked to the previously reported deployment of RF amphibious "Omich" platforms or a standard tactical aviation strike.
