DIPLOMATIC (US WORKING GROUP): President Trump announced a dedicated US working group for Ukraine including Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and General Jack Keane (2207Z, TASS/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
ENERGY SECTOR (ZNPP): Trump stated that Putin expressed intent to bring the Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP) back into operation "quickly" and has ceased targeting the facility (2205Z, Sternenko/ASTRA, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC (TIMELINE): Agreement on a peace framework could be reached within "weeks," with Zelenskyy targeting January for the finalization of all documentation (2207Z, TASS; 2209Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
STRATEGIC NARRATIVE: Trump publicly stated he "believes Putin" regarding a desire for peace and claimed Russia wants a "successful Ukraine" and would provide "cheap electricity" for reconstruction (2212Z, Operativno ZSU/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
KINETIC (VUHLEDAR SECTOR): Claims of a failed UAF counter-attack near Ravnopillya resulting in personnel capture (2230Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
BATTLEFIELD (STEPNOHIRSK): Confirmation of ongoing localized operations in the Stepnohirsk sector (Zaporizhzhia) supported by visual evidence (2218Z, Slivochniy Kapriz, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by the "post-presser" information wave following the Mar-a-Lago talks. The most significant shift is the pivot toward technical and bureaucratic implementation of the "20-point plan," evidenced by the naming of a high-level US working group and the specific inclusion of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) as a bargaining chip for energy stability. While the diplomatic rhetoric emphasizes a "weeks, not months" timeline for a deal, the tactical situation remains kinetic, with RF forces maintaining pressure in Zaporizhzhia and the Vuhledar salient to consolidate gains before any potential ceasefire.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intentions: The RF is likely utilizing the "Peace through Reconstruction" narrative (cheap energy/ZNPP re-activation) to soften Ukrainian domestic resistance to territorial concessions. However, the underlying military intent remains a "land grab" prior to any January freeze, as acknowledged by Trump’s warnings of RF intent to seize more land in the "coming months" (2227Z).
Tactical Changes: In the Zaporizhzhia sector (Stepnohirsk), RF appears to be engaging in localized "spoiling" attacks to prevent UAF from stabilizing the line near the Dnipro reservoir.
Logistics & Sustainment: The proposal to re-activate ZNPP suggests RF intends to use the plant as a central node for an integrated regional power grid under its control, effectively "weaponizing" energy supply in negotiations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Operational Posture: UAF continues to face heavy pressure in the South. The reported (though unconfirmed) loss of personnel in the Ravnopillya sector suggests that localized counter-attacks to regain high ground are meeting stiff RF resistance and sophisticated defensive belts.
Strategic Maneuver: President Zelenskyy’s confirmation of a January timeline for documentation suggests the Ukrainian General Staff is now planning for a potential "operational pause" or transition to a stabilized defensive posture aligned with diplomatic milestones.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: There is a significant divergence between Trump’s optimistic "Putin wants peace" narrative and the reality of the RF's tactical offensive. RF state media (TASS) is aggressively amplifying Trump’s claims that Russia did not shell ZNPP, aiming to shift historical accountability.
Disinformation Alert: Expect a surge in narratives framing UAF resistance as "impeding cheap energy" for Ukrainian civilians, specifically targeting the ZNPP re-activation theme.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity assaults in the Primorske/Stepnohirsk and Kupyansk directions for the next 14 days to maximize the "territorial questions" mentioned by Trump. The ZNPP issue will be used as a primary lever to force UAF concessions on security zones around the plant.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "referendum" talk to incite domestic unrest in Ukraine, potentially paired with a large-scale missile strike on Western Ukraine to demonstrate that the "cheap energy/peace" offer is the only alternative to total infrastructure collapse.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk):ACTIVE. Visual confirmation of kinetic activity. Sector remains a primary RF axis for "pre-deal" land expansion.
ZNPP (Enerhodar):DIPLOMATIC PIVOT. Transitioning from a tactical target to a strategic "energy carrot" in the peace framework.
Strategic Rear:SITUATIONAL AWARENESS. No new reports of deep strikes following the Adygea airfield activity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Political: Detailed analysis of the US Working Group members' past stances on Ukraine to predict the "Military Dimension" of the 20-point plan.
Kinetic: Continued RF pressure in the South. Possible RF air activity to respond to the earlier Maykop strike.
IO: Pro-Russian mil-bloggers will likely focus on the "failed Ravnopillya attack" to demoralize UAF forces currently engaged in the sector.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
ZNPP Operational Status: Technical assessment of whether ZNPP can actually be "quickly" re-activated after years of cold/warm shutdown and potential mining of infrastructure.
US Working Group Mandate: Clarification on whether the named group (Rubio, Hegseth, etc.) has an official status with the current administration or is strictly for the transition/post-Jan 20.
Ravnopillya BDA: Corroboration of the reported UAF losses to determine if a tactical gap has opened in the Vuhledar salient.
