DIPLOMATIC (MAR-A-LAGO PRESSER): President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump held a joint press conference following their 140-minute bilateral and a 60-minute tripartite call with EU leaders (2151Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
PEACE PLAN (STATUS): Official readout reports a "20-point Peace Plan" is 90% agreed upon. Specifically: US Security Guarantees (100%), Military Dimension (100%), Transatlantic (US/EU) Guarantees (90%), and the "Prosperity Plan" for recovery is in finalization (2157Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
TERRITORIAL NEGOTIATIONS: The "Donbas question" and sovereignty remain the primary unresolved issues. Trump indicated "1-2 difficult questions" remain; Zelenskyy signaled that any territorial decisions must respect Ukrainian law, potentially requiring a national referendum or parliamentary vote (2200Z, Sternenko/Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
DEEP STRIKE (ADYGEA): Reports of a Ukrainian strike targeting the Khanskaya Airfield in Maykop, Republic of Adygea. Footage shows activity in winter conditions; BDA is pending (2146Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM).
THREAT WARNING: Trump stated the RF intends to "seize more territory in the coming months," urging a rapid conclusion to the peace agreement to preempt further RF offensives (2205Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC (NEXT STEPS): Further bilateral talks are scheduled for tomorrow, Dec 29. A high-level summit in Washington involving European leaders and a Ukrainian delegation is projected for January (2204Z, Operativno ZSU/TASS, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is now dictated by the disclosed parameters of a potential US-led peace framework. The "90% agreement" on a 20-point plan represents a significant acceleration of diplomatic timelines. However, the lack of consensus on the Donbas and territorial sovereignty creates a "frozen" core to the negotiations. While the diplomatic track moves toward a January summit, the kinetic track has expanded with a long-range UAF strike into the North Caucasus (Adygea), likely aimed at disrupting RF aviation assets involved in the southern offensive.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions: RF intent remains focused on territorial maximalism prior to any January freeze-point. Trump’s warning (2205Z) regarding RF intent to seize more land aligns with the current pressure in Western Zaporizhzhia (Primorske) and Kharkiv.
Logistics & Sustainment: The reported strike on Khanskaya Airfield (Adygea) targets a key node for RF operations in the south. If BDA confirms damage to airframes or fuel stores, it may degrade RF CAS/tactical bombing capacity in the Zaporizhzhia/Kherson sectors.
Information Operations (IO): RF state media (TASS) and mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad) are emphasizing the "unresolved" nature of the Donbas and the "referendum" language to frame the Ukrainian government as facing internal instability or being forced into concessions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Posture: The Ukrainian delegation has secured a 100% commitment on US security guarantees and the "military dimension" of the peace plan, a critical pillar for long-term deterrence.
Legal/Domestic Constraints: Zelenskyy’s introduction of the "referendum" or "parliamentary vote" as a mechanism for territorial decisions serves as a defensive maneuver against "forced" concessions, ensuring domestic legitimacy while buying time for the January summit.
Deep Strike Capability: The strike on Khanskaya indicates UAF retains the capability to penetrate deep RF airspace despite replenished RF ISR/space capabilities (Soyuz 2.1b launch, 1440Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Convergence: Both sides acknowledge that the "95% consensus" claimed by Trump includes most security and economic pillars, leaving only the most "toxic" territorial issues on the table.
Propaganda: Pro-Russian sources (NgP Razvedka) continue to use personalized attacks on Ukrainian leadership to maintain domestic RF support, even as state media (TASS) objectively reports the "progress" made in the Mar-a-Lago talks.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify "clearing" operations in the Kharkiv and Primorske sectors over the next 72 hours to establish "facts on the ground" before the next round of talks on Dec 29 and the January summit. The "spoiler strike" from AB Shaykovka remains a high probability to disrupt the Ukrainian delegation's return.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF attempts a rapid mechanized push towards Stepnohirsk or the Oskil river crossings (utilizing "Omich" robots) to seize critical high ground or infrastructure before a potential ceasefire line is finalized in Washington.
Operational picture (by sector)
Strategic Rear (RF):ACTIVE. Khanskaya Airfield (Adygea) under strike; assessments ongoing for secondary explosions or aircraft damage.
Kherson Sector:KINETIC. Continued high-intensity pressure following earlier TPP strikes; medical services at surge capacity.
Zaporizhzhia (Primorske):HIGH ALERT. Widened RF offensive breadth expected as RF seeks to maximize territorial gains prior to January.
Pokrovsk/Donbas:STABILIZED. UAF 7th Corps holding northern sectors, but risk of SOF sabotage in the tactical rear remains high.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Diplomatic: Preparations for the Dec 29 follow-up call. Expected European leader statements confirming the "90% consensus."
Kinetic: Heightened risk of RF LRA (Long Range Aviation) activity from AB Shaykovka (SAR Score 44.37) as a "veto" against the 100% security guarantee agreement.
Cyber/IO: Surge in "referendum" disinformation targeting Ukrainian domestic social media to incite internal discord.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Khanskaya Airfield BDA: Urgent satellite imagery/HUMINT required to confirm damage to Su-34 or Su-30 airframes.
Security Guarantee Specifics: Determine if the "100% agreed" US guarantees include a "boots on ground" provision or are limited to materiel and intelligence.
RF 7th Regiment Movement: Confirm if the 7th Regiment has successfully integrated "Omich" robotic platforms into the Kharkiv/Kupyansk assault formations.
