DIPLOMATIC FINALIZATION: Negotiations at Mar-a-Lago have reportedly reached the "final stage." Donald Trump states a "strong security agreement" involving European nations is being drafted, with six specific documents currently under review by the delegations. (1837Z-1859Z, RBC-Ukraine/Zelenskiy Official, HIGH).
KAB STRIKES ON DNIPROPETROVSK: For the first time in recent cycles, Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) have been launched against the eastern Synelnykivskyi district of the Dnipropetrovsk region, indicating a forward shift in Russian tactical aviation reach. (1840Z-1841Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
CONTRADICTORY SUMMIT INTEL: Reports on the impact of the Trump-Putin phone call are conflicted. External media (FT) reports "panic" in the Ukrainian delegation, while internal Ukrainian sources claim Zelenskyy is "not worried." (1846Z-1855Z, RBC-Ukraine/TASS, MEDIUM).
KHARKIV UAV THREAT: A new wave of loitering munitions (likely Shahed/Geran) or reconnaissance UAVs has entered Ukrainian airspace from the north, specifically targeting the Kharkiv direction. (1902Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
KINETIC DISCLOSURE: During the summit, Donald Trump publicly attributed recent deep-strike explosions within Russia to Ukraine, stating they "did not come from the US" but from Ukraine, framing them as "very strong attacks." (1843Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly dictated by the timeline of the Mar-a-Lago summit. As the meeting moves "behind closed doors," the Russian Federation (RF) has intensified tactical aviation pressure. The employment of KABs against the Dnipropetrovsk border is a significant escalation, as these munitions typically require aircraft to operate within 40-70km of the target, suggesting RF aviation is exploiting gaps in Ukrainian SHORAD or capitalizing on the preoccupation of high-level C2.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Aviation/Tactical Strike: The transition from ballistic threats (previous sitrep) to KAB launches (1841Z) suggests a systematic "clearing" of the frontline and tactical rear. Targeting Synelnykivskyi district indicates an intent to disrupt GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) feeding the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts from the Dnipro hub.
Information Operations: RF state media (TASS) and milbloggers (NgP Razvedka) are aggressively pushing a narrative of Ukrainian "desperation" and "secret agreements" (1840Z-1847Z). The goal is to create domestic instability within Ukraine by suggesting the population is being excluded from peace terms.
Course of Action (Kharkiv): The northern UAV approach (1902Z) likely serves as a secondary "spoiler" to fix air defense assets in the north while KABs strike the east.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Diplomatic Posture: The inclusion of Minister of Economy Sobolev in the delegation (1900Z) suggests that "security guarantees" are being coupled with economic reconstruction or "lease-lend" style industrial agreements.
Tactical Response: UAF Air Force is maintaining active monitoring of the airspace, though the use of KABs presents a high-attrition challenge for units in the Synelnykivskyi and Donetsk sectors.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Narrative: A sharp divergence exists regarding the Trump-Putin dialogue. RF-aligned channels are amplifying the Financial Times report of "panic" to demoralize Ukrainian supporters, while UAF-aligned channels are emphasizing "strong guarantees" (1859Z).
Trump’s Rhetoric: Trump's explicit mention of Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil (1843Z) may be a double-edged sword: it validates UAF capabilities but also potentially sets the stage for a "de-escalation" demand as part of the "final stage" deal.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the KAB and UAV pressure through the night to ensure the "closed-door" negotiations occur against a backdrop of Ukrainian infrastructure/logistics degradation. The "final stage" of negotiations will produce a joint statement within the next 6 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the diplomatic transition, RF launches a massed mechanized assault in the Huliaipole or Sumy sectors (ref: previous sitrep) to present a new fait accompli before any ceasefire or security agreement documents are signed.
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk (East):CRITICAL THREAT. First confirmed KAB launches in the Synelnykivskyi district. High risk to rail and road logistics.
Donetsk:HEAVY PRESSURE. Ongoing KAB strikes. RF continues to "burn out" defensive positions ahead of the diplomatic conclusion.
Kharkiv:ACTIVE THREAT. Inbound UAVs from the north. Potential for overnight loitering munition strikes on energy or C2 nodes.
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole):UNSTABLE. Following the loss of strongpoints and POW executions (1822Z), the sector remains a high-risk zone for RF breakthroughs.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation: Tactical aviation is the primary threat vector. The use of KABs suggests RF air superiority or successful suppression of local AD in the eastern borderlands.
Ground Forces: Pro-Russian sources (Rybar) hint at "liberation" (1841Z), likely a tactical-level village capture intended for propaganda value during the Mar-a-Lago summit.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Diplomatic: Finalizing a 6-document framework with the US delegation. Focus on "strong security guarantees" and economic involvement.
Tactical: Air Force remains the primary defensive arm engaging inbound KABs and UAVs.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Diplomatic: Expected joint press conference or official communique from Mar-a-Lago. High probability of "Security Guarantee" framework being announced.
Kinetic: Continued tactical aviation strikes. Expect RF to attempt a "final push" on the ground to maximize territorial holdings before any potential freeze is discussed.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Dnipropetrovsk BDA: Immediate Battle Damage Assessment required for Synelnykivskyi district to determine if KABs targeted civilian infrastructure or military logistics hubs.
Kupyansk "Omich" Status: (Carryover) Verification of RF amphibious robotic deployment status near the Oskil river.
Agreement Specifics: Intelligence on the content of the "6 documents" (1855Z) to assess if they include immediate military aid or are limited to long-term post-war guarantees.
