DIPLOMATIC SUMMIT COMMENCED: President Zelenskyy has arrived at Mar-a-Lago for talks with Donald Trump. Trump has publicly claimed "contours of a deal" already exist and stated his intent to call Putin following the meeting. (1823Z-1833Z, RBC-Ukraine/TASS, HIGH).
SUMY SECTOR ACTIVATION: RF sources report a significant breakthrough along the Sumy border, claiming to have broken a Ukrainian "counter-offensive" and advancing through treelines as UAF units reportedly withdraw. (1817Z-1832Z, Colonelcassad/RVvoenkor, MEDIUM - UNCONFIRMED BY UAF).
HULIAIPOLE STRONGPOINT LOSS: Visual evidence confirms RF forces have overrun a UAF strongpoint in the Huliaipole area, capturing abandoned supplies. This corroborates previous reports of RF infiltration south of the town. (1822Z, Two Majors, HIGH).
WAR CRIMES CONFIRMATION: DeepState has corroborated the execution of three Ukrainian POWs south of Huliaipole, identifying the location in the Zaporizhzhia sector. (1816Z, TSAPLIENKO/DeepState, HIGH).
AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE SPIKE: Following a cleared ballistic missile threat (1818Z-1832Z), the UAF Air Force reports active enemy reconnaissance UAVs over SW Zaporizhzhia, East Dnipropetrovsk, and South Donetsk. (1834Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "diplomatic-kinetic synchronization." As President Zelenskyy engages in high-level negotiations in Florida, RF forces have intensified pressure in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia sectors. The weather remains conducive to UAV reconnaissance, which is currently peaking across the southern and eastern axes. The ballistic threat at 1818Z likely served as a "masking" event or a readiness test to coincide with the start of the Mar-a-Lago summit.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (Sumy): RF appears to be opening a northern pressure point to force UAF to divert reserves away from the critical Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk axis. The claim of a "broken counter-offensive" (1832Z) suggests RF is attempting to frame their tactical advance as a defensive necessity.
Tactical Changes (Zaporizhzhia): RF units are demonstrating high aggression south of Huliaipole. The confirmed execution of POWs and the rapid seizure of strongpoints (1822Z) indicate the use of specialized assault groups (possibly Storm-Z or similar high-attrition units) intended to shock and bypass established defenses.
Command and Control: Putin's reliance on Presidential Aide Ushakov to frame the "Donbas solution" (1820Z) indicates the Kremlin is pre-conditioning the information space to demand territorial concessions as part of Trump's "deal contours."
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Status: UAF units in the Huliaipole sector are under severe pressure, with reports of rapid evacuations from frontline strongpoints. In Sumy, the situation is evolving; if RF claims of "withdrawal without a fight" are accurate, it suggests a potential breakdown in local C2 or a planned retrograde to secondary lines.
Resource Constraints: The presence of persistent reconnaissance UAVs (1834Z) indicates a gap in local short-range air defense (SHORAD) coverage in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border regions.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Narrative: RF media is aggressively pushing a narrative of Ukrainian "confusion" (1814Z) and Western "weakness" (1825Z). This is a coordinated hybrid effort to undermine Zelenskyy's leverage during the Trump meeting.
Propaganda: The use of derogatory labels for the Ukrainian leadership by pro-Russian milbloggers (1834Z) alongside "peace deal" rhetoric from official channels (TASS) highlights the "good cop/bad cop" strategy employed by the Kremlin.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity assaults in the Sumy and Huliaipole sectors for the next 6-12 hours to generate "negative headlines" for the Ukrainian delegation in Florida. Trump’s planned call to Putin (1833Z) will likely be used by the RF to present a "fait accompli" regarding recent territorial gains.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the reported "chaos" in the Sumy direction to launch a deeper mechanized thrust toward Sumy city, forcing a massive redeployment of UAF strategic reserves during the peak of diplomatic negotiations.
Operational picture (by sector)
Sumy:CRITICAL/DETERIORATING. New RF offensive activity reported. Claims of breaking UAF lines in treelines.
Huliaipole:DETERIORATING. Loss of strongpoints and confirmed POW executions indicate RF penetration is deeper than previously assessed.
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Border:HIGH THREAT. Persistent UAV reconnaissance suggests target acquisition for a potential second wave of ballistic or cruise missile strikes.
Kupyansk:STABLE (DEGRADED). No new major updates since industrial sector loss; urban combat continues.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/Missile: Ballistic threat (1818Z) signals high readiness of RF missile units. The "all clear" (1832Z) does not preclude a night-time follow-up.
Ground Forces: RF is successfully employing "spoiler" attacks in secondary sectors (Sumy) to prevent UAF from stabilizing the primary Pokrovsk front.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic: President Zelenskyy in active negotiations at Mar-a-Lago (1829Z).
Tactical: UAF Air Force actively engaging/tracking reconnaissance UAVs in the south.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Diplomatic Phase: High probability of "leaks" regarding the Trump-Zelenskyy deal contours.
Kinetic Phase: Expect intensified RF shelling and UAV-corrected artillery in the Sumy and Huliaipole sectors to capitalize on reported gains.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sumy Geolocation: Urgent need for visual or SIGINT confirmation of RF advance limits in the Sumy sector to verify "RVvoenkor" claims (1832Z).
Huliaipole Perimeter: Determine the exact unit identity of the RF forces involved in the POW executions south of Huliaipole.
UAV Objectives: Analyze the flight patterns of the reconnaissance UAVs (1834Z) to identify if they are spotting for tube artillery or preparing for a Shahed/Missile strike on Zaporizhzhia city.
