PUTIN-TRUMP CALL DETAILS: Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov confirmed the call lasted 75 minutes and was initiated by Trump. Key outcome: Agreement to establish two working groups (Security and Economy) in January to formulate peace parameters. Both parties reportedly agreed a "temporary ceasefire" is non-viable. (1750Z-1800Z, TASS/ASTRA, HIGH).
KUPYANSK INDUSTRIAL SECTOR LOSS: RF forces have consolidated control over the Kupyansk Milk Canning Plant. The surrounding area is largely designated as a "grey zone" or under UAF control, indicating a significant RF foothold in the city’s industrial infrastructure. (1736Z-1751Z, Alex Parker/RVvoenkor, HIGH).
WAR CRIMES ALLEGATION (HULIAIPOLE): Reports and visual evidence indicate the execution of three Ukrainian POWs by RF forces south of Huliaipole, suggesting RF units have bypassed the town center and are operating in its southern outskirts. (1758Z, DeepState, MEDIUM).
UGV INTERDICTION: UAF "Ronins" unit successfully destroyed an RF armed Unmanned Ground Vehicle (NRK) equipped with a machine gun on the Zaporizhzhia axis before it reached firing positions. (1752Z, STERNENKO, HIGH).
DIPROPETROVSK BORDER THREAT: RF "Center" Group (O-Group) forces are confirmed to be conducting offensive operations specifically targeting the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Pokrovsk. (1746Z, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM).
AERIAL THREAT: Shahed-type UAVs are currently transiting from Western Donetsk toward Dnipropetrovsk and moving north from the Sea of Azov toward Zaporizhzhia. (1748Z-1804Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by RF attempts to maximize territorial gains ahead of the diplomatic "Working Group" window established in the Putin-Trump call. Kinetic intensity is peaking in the Kupyansk and Huliaipole sectors. Weather remains a factor; snowy conditions are present across the Eastern front, complicating wheeled logistics but increasing the visibility of heat signatures for thermal-equipped drones.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk): The RF "Center" Group has shifted its primary axis of advance from the city center of Pokrovsk toward the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is likely a political objective intended to demonstrate the vulnerability of central Ukrainian regions before the January negotiations.
Tactical Adaptation (Kherson): RF forces are utilizing low-cost, coordinated mortar fire to interdict high-speed UAF riverine craft. This indicates a shift away from relying solely on FPV drones for coastal defense in the Dnipro delta. (1804Z, Two Majors).
Capabilities (Unmanned): Despite the loss of an armed NRK UGV (1752Z), the continued deployment of these systems confirms RF's commitment to roboticizing high-attrition sectors to preserve infantry for final urban clearing operations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Operational Status: UAF forces are maintaining a "holding pattern" in the Kupyansk industrial zone, focusing on the Milk Canning Plant's perimeter. In the South, units are facing a high-threat environment south of Huliaipole where RF infiltration/sabotage groups appear active.
Resource Developments: Political pressure within the German Bundestag to transfer Taurus missiles (1742Z) represents a critical potential capability shift for long-range interdiction of RF logistics nodes, though delivery is not imminent.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Narrative: RF state media (TASS) is heavily promoting the "economic cooperation" and "working group" narratives to frame the RF as a constructive diplomatic partner while maintaining high kinetic pressure on the ground.
Psychological Ops: The reopening of the Mariupol Drama Theater (1755Z) is being used as a high-visibility propaganda tool to signal "normalization" in occupied territories.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue high-intensity "spoiler" assaults in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk sectors over the next 12 hours. The goal is to cross the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border to create a "crisis of sovereignty" narrative to coincide with President Zelenskyy's meeting in Miami.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the penetration south of Huliaipole, RF forces initiate a mechanized dash toward Orikhiv, attempting to collapse the southern "bridgehead" while UAF attention is fixed on the diplomatic summit.
Timeline: Expected surge in long-range UAV/Missile strikes between 2100Z and 0300Z, targeting energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia to support ongoing ground offensives.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk:DETERIORATING. RF control of the Milk Canning Plant confirmed. Urban combat shifting to industrial-zone siege tactics.
Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk Border:CRITICAL. RF "Center" Group pushing toward oblast boundaries. High-intensity 506th Regiment activity reported.
Huliaipole:UNSTABLE. RF units confirmed operating south of the town. Risk of encirclement rising.
Kherson (Riverine):CONTESTED. Increased RF mortar efficiency against UAF small craft.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Electronic Warfare: High density in Kupyansk; RF claiming "enemy analysts" (DeepState) are losing situational awareness due to rapid RF movements.
Ground Forces: Continued integration of armed UGVs and mobile mortar groups.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Strike: Successful interdiction of RF robotic assets in Zaporizhzhia.
Defense: Maintaining tactical holds in North Pokrovsk and West Kupyansk.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic Peak: Heavy fighting expected as RF attempts to reach the Dnipropetrovsk border.
Diplomatic Impact: Expect further leaked details from the Trump-Putin call intended to undermine the UAF delegation's leverage in Miami.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verification of Executions: Urgent drone/SIGINT confirmation of the reported execution south of Huliaipole to identify the RF unit responsible (potential 58th CAA components).
Dnipropetrovsk Border Proximity: Precise geolocation of the lead RF elements from the "Center" Group relative to the oblast administrative line.
Shahed Flight Paths: Track current UAV wave to determine if the target is Dnipro city or logistics hubs in Pavlohrad.
