HULIAIPOLE PARTIAL OCCUPATION: Operational Command (OC) South confirms Russian forces have seized portions of Huliaipole. The situation is described as "very difficult" with intense urban combat ongoing. (1711Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH).
PUTIN-TRUMP CALL CONFIRMED: The Kremlin and TASS have officially confirmed the first direct contact between Putin and Trump in 2.5 months. Trump characterizes the call as "very good," creating a complex diplomatic backdrop for the imminent meeting with President Zelenskyy. (1707Z-1711Z, РБК-Україна/STERNENKO/TASS, HIGH).
GRID INSTABILITY: Ukrenergo has announced nationwide hourly power outages for tomorrow (29 DEC) and continued emergency shutdowns in Kyiv/Kyiv Oblast following persistent strikes on energy infrastructure. (1726Z-1727Z, Оперативний ЗСУ/РБК-Україна, HIGH).
RF UGV DEPLOYMENT: Russian "Black Panther" units are confirmed using "Kurier" (Courier) Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) for frontline logistics (food/ammo delivery) in winter conditions. (1721Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
POLISH DRONE WALL: Poland has announced the deployment of a specialized anti-drone wall along its border with the RF in response to increasing airspace violations. (1714Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The tactical situation in the South has deteriorated significantly. The partial loss of Huliaipole indicates that RF "Search and Strike" drone operations and UGV-supported infantry assaults have successfully breached the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA). Simultaneously, the RF is using the confirmed Putin-Trump dialogue to maximize psychological pressure on UAF leadership currently in Miami. Weather remains a force multiplier for RF logistical UGVs as ground conditions harden, favoring their small-footprint delivery systems over traditional wheeled transport.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action (Huliaipole): RF forces are transitioning from interdiction to consolidation within the urban center of Huliaipole. Recent reconnaissance and artillery strikes west of the city suggest an intent to bypass the primary defensive line and threaten the rear of the Zaporizhzhia grouping. (1707Z, Поддубный).
Capabilities (Unmanned Systems): The deployment of "Kurier" UGVs (1721Z) for last-mile logistics mitigates RF casualties during rotations and resupply, allowing them to sustain high-intensity urban combat even under UAF drone surveillance.
Order of Battle (Kupyansk): Servicemen of the 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment (Zapad Group) are confirmed active and engaged in counter-UAV operations, indicating this unit is a primary placeholder for the RF's northern defensive-offensive posture. (1733Z, MoD Russia).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Operational Status: OC South is managing a defensive crisis in Huliaipole. UAF forces are utilizing high-density drone strikes to disrupt RF transfers (1705Z, 1733Z), but are facing significant attrition of armored assets during maneuver.
Resource Constraints: The announcement of nationwide power outages (1726Z) indicates that energy-intensive military industrial production and repair facilities in the rear may face significant operational downtime in the 24-48 hour window.
Strategic Posture: Pro-Ukrainian demonstrations at Mar-a-Lago (1730Z) serve as a critical counter-narrative to the "Trump-Putin" alignment, signaling sustained grassroots support for Ukrainian security guarantees.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Influence Ops: Pro-Russian channels (RVvoenkor) are pushing a narrative of "mass civilian support" for RF forces in the tactical rear to delegitimize UAF control and incite internal friction. (1721Z).
Diplomatic Friction: Sarcastic polling by RF state-aligned bloggers (Kotsnews) regarding Trump’s peace plans aims to sow doubt about the reliability of the incoming US administration. (1734Z).
Disinformation Alert: A fabricated report of a suicide protest in Mecca (1718Z) is being used by RF-aligned channels (Alex Parker) to saturate the information space with "global instability" narratives, distracting from the kinetic intensity in Ukraine.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will attempt to fully clear Huliaipole within the next 12 hours to present a "fait accompli" during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. This will likely be supported by a surge in "Kurier" UGV activity to maintain supplies without exposing vehicles to UAF FPVs.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the momentum in Huliaipole and the SAR readiness at Shaykovka AB, RF launches a multi-axis mechanized push toward Stepnohirsk while simultaneously initiating the "spoiler" missile strike on Kyiv.
Timeline: The window between 1800Z and 2100Z remains the highest risk for both kinetic and strategic aviation activity.
Operational picture (by sector)
Huliaipole:CRITICAL. RF has seized sections of the city. OC South confirms "very difficult" situation.
Zaporizhzhia (West):THREATENED. RF reconnaissance active west of Huliaipole; potential for flanking maneuvers.
Kyiv/Kyiv Oblast:EMERGENCY STATUS. Ongoing power outages; air defense on high alert.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ground Forces: Increased reliance on UGVs ("Kurier") for frontline sustainment.
Logistics: Successful delivery of NGO-supported anti-drone nets and medical supplies to the DNR sector suggests improved small-unit survivability against UAF FPVs.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-UAS: Active drone hunting in the Kupyansk sector.
Energy Defense: Implementation of nationwide rolling blackouts to preserve the integrity of the damaged grid.
Information environment / disinformation
Warning: RF state media is framing the Zakharova "report/essay" as a formalization of current hardline policy, signaling no intent to soften their stance post-Trump call. (1729Z, TASS).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic Peak: Expected tactical surge in Huliaipole to coincide with the Mar-a-Lago summit.
Aviation: Shaykovka AB remains at peak readiness; expect missile launch notifications.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Extent of Huliaipole Breach: Precise street-level control data for Huliaipole is required to determine the viability of a UAF counter-attack.
"Kurier" UGV Capabilities: Technical intelligence on the jam-resistance of the "Kurier" platform to adjust EW protocols.
Polish Border Status: Confirmation of any kinetic activity prompting the "drone wall" announcement.
