US-RF DIRECT CONTACT: Donald Trump confirms a "good and very productive" telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin immediately preceding his scheduled meeting with President Zelenskyy. The Kremlin (Peskov) has officially confirmed the call. (1650Z-1657Z, TASS/ASTRA/Colonelcassad, HIGH).
US SECURITY GUARANTEES: Reports indicate Trump intends to seek Congressional approval for Ukrainian security guarantees, potentially shifting the mechanism of US support to a more formalized legislative footing. (1637Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM).
KUPYANSK URBAN COMBAT: Intensive fighting reported within Kupyansk city limits. RF forces claim a presence in several sectors, while UAF continues to commit reserves to maintain the "gray zone" and repel breakthroughs. (1640Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE PRESSURE: RF forces are utilizing a high density of FPV and strike drones to target UAF personnel movements, framing UAF reinforcement efforts as "anti-crisis" measures in response to deteriorating conditions. (1700Z, Воин DV, MEDIUM).
POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) MANEUVER: RF sources report "chaos" in the sector as UAF attempts to stabilize lines via rapid reserve redeployments. (1647Z, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted into a high-intensity "Diplomatic-Kinetic Squeeze." The confirmation of a Trump-Putin call prior to the Zelenskyy meeting indicates the RF has successfully inserted its narrative into the "Miami Window." On the ground, the RF is attempting to force tactical collapses in Kupyansk and Huliaipole to maximize their bargaining position. Weather forecasts indicate incoming frost and snow for the New Year period, which will likely firm up the ground for mechanized maneuver but increase the strain on energy infrastructure. (1646Z, РБК-Україна).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Strategic Intent: The Kremlin is using direct communication with the incoming US administration to bypass Ukrainian "Victory Plan" prerequisites. By confirming the "productive" nature of the call, the RF is attempting to project an image of "reasonable" engagement while maintaining maximum pressure on the front.
Tactical Course of Action:
Kupyansk: RF is prioritized on establishing a permanent foothold in the urban center to disrupt Oskil River logistics.
Southern Axis: RF is leaning heavily on "Search and Strike" drone operations (Voin DV) to interdict UAF rotations, particularly in the Huliaipole sector.
Logistics: RF Airborne Troops (VDV) have concluded major New Year fundraising cycles, suggesting they are well-provisioned for winter combat operations. (1646Z, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Tactical Posture: UAF continues to demonstrate high-level urban warfare proficiency. The 20th Brigade "Lubart" is confirmed engaged in high-intensity urban clearing (1631Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС), and the 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion (DShV) is active in high-value targeting.
Resource Management: Recruitment efforts remain focused on specialized roles, specifically Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), as seen with the 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" (1701Z). This aligns with the transition toward fiber-optic and advanced drone warfare noted in earlier reports.
Internal Morale/Civic: Continued focus on the "Alley of Glory" memorials in Krivyi Rih and the opening of high-tech centers suggests a sustained effort to maintain rear-area resilience and honor casualties while looking toward technological modernization. (1638Z, Вілкул).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF IO Surge: Pro-Russian channels (Воин DV, Colonelcassad) are aggressively framing UAF defensive maneuvers as "senseless waste of life" and "media-driven" actions to coincide with the US summit.
The "Trump Narrative": The information space is currently saturated with the "Trump-Putin call" (Score: HIGH). RF state media (TASS) is amplifying the "good and productive" nature of the call to sow doubt regarding the level of US-Ukraine alignment.
Internal Critique: Remarks by Andriy Biletskyi (3rd Assault Corps) regarding a "strategic dead end" for Russia are being publicized to counter the narrative of inevitable RF victory. (1545Z, 23 Dec/Zhorin).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the tactical surge in Kupyansk and Pokrovsk for the next 6-12 hours. The Shaykovka AB readiness (SAR Score 44.37 from previous report) remains the primary indicator for a "spoiler strike" intended to land during or immediately after the Miami summit.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF uses the diplomatic momentum of the Trump-Putin call to announce a "goodwill" localized pause in one sector while simultaneously launching a massive mechanized push in another (likely the Primorske/Western Zaporizhzhia axis mentioned in the 1500Z report) to shatter the southern defensive belt.
Timeline: The next 4 hours (1800Z-2200Z) are the high-risk window for strategic aerial strikes.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk:CRITICAL. High-intensity urban combat. RF attempting to solidify a foothold in the city. (Colonelcassad).
Pokrovsk:UNSTABLE. RF reporting "chaos" in UAF reserve movements; UAF 7th Corps remains the anchor but is under extreme pressure. (Дневник Десантника).
Zaporizhzhia (ZNPP):LOCAL CEASEFIRE. No new reports of violations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation:CRITICAL. Shaykovka AB remains the focal point for imminent Tu-22M3 activity.
Psychological Operations: RF is leveraging the Putin-Trump call to demoralize the UAF frontline by suggesting a deal is being made without Kyiv's input.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: Active urban clearing by 20th Brigade "Lubart."
Strategic Communication: President Zelenskyy's team is likely pivoting to address the implications of the Trump-Putin call in real-time.
Information environment / disinformation
Warning: RF channels are misinterpreting UAF reserve movements as "panic" to undermine Western confidence in UAF command and control.
Narrative Tracking: Monitor CNN reports regarding Congressional security guarantees; this is the primary counter-narrative to "abandonment" fears.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert: Kinetic activity will likely peak between 1800Z and 2100Z.
Diplomatic Impact: The outcome of the Miami meeting will be heavily filtered through the lens of the earlier Trump-Putin call.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kupyansk Control Map: Urgent requirement for geolocated footage to confirm the extent of RF penetration into the city center.
Shaykovka Activity: Immediate update on Tu-22M3 taxiing or takeoff.
"Omich" UGV Tracking: Still no visual confirmation of these platforms in the new message feed; location remains a priority intelligence requirement (PIR).
