ZNPP TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE: IAEA Director General Grossi confirms a temporary localized ceasefire in the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to facilitate urgent repairs to high-voltage power lines. (1618Z, Два майора, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC COORDINATION: President Zelenskyy conducted a high-level coordination call with UK PM Keir Starmer ahead of the scheduled US meeting. (1607Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
DELEGATION ARRIVAL: Visual evidence confirms the arrival of the Ukrainian delegation at their destination for the Trump-Zelenskyy summit; notably, the delegation is dressed in casual tactical attire, signaling a "working/combat" posture. (1608Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM).
RF RHETORICAL RIGIDITY: Kremlin-aligned sources are amplifying Putin’s rejection of mutual troop withdrawals, citing current RF tactical momentum as a reason to refuse negotiations. (1623Z, НгП раZVедка, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL UAF FRICTION: Senior leadership within the 3rd Assault Corps (Maksym Zhorin) has publicly criticized the lack of military salary increases, "Soviet-style" command structures, and the absence of a formal mechanism for inter-unit transfers. (1501Z-1613Z, Zhorin, HIGH).
RDK LEADERSHIP LOSS: Reports confirm the death of Denys "WhiteRex" Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), in combat. (1406Z, 27 Dec/Zhorin, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently experiencing a "diplomatic lull" in some sectors, notably the ZNPP/Enerhodar area, while high-intensity combat remains the norm in Huliaipole and Pokrovsk. The battlefield is increasingly influenced by the "Miami Window" (1800Z-2100Z), where political signaling and kinetic actions are being synchronized by the RF to influence the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. Weather-related infrastructure failures in Northern Europe (Finland) may impact regional logistical synchronization but have not yet affected the Ukrainian theater directly.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Strategic Posture: The RF is adopting a "maximalist" stance, utilizing its current rate of advance—which is acknowledged as high despite extreme casualty rates—to dismiss Ukrainian diplomatic proposals for reciprocal withdrawals.
Course of Action: Expect the RF to maintain or increase pressure on the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia axes over the next 4 hours to provide the Kremlin with "strength-based" talking points during the US-Ukraine summit.
Tactical Observations: Pro-Russian sources continue to emphasize individual "heroism" (e.g., lone soldier vs. bunker) to mask broader systemic losses and maintain domestic morale.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Personnel & Morale: There is a growing vocalization of grievances from frontline commanders (3rd Assault Corps) regarding systemic issues:
C2 Inefficiency: Continued criticism of "paper generals" and outdated command protocols.
Retention/Transfers: The lack of a legal transfer mechanism is cited as a primary driver for AWOL (SZCH) cases, as soldiers seek to move to more effective units.
Compensation: The failure to include salary increases in the state budget is identified as a significant morale risk.
Strategic Readiness: Despite internal friction, coordination with the UK remains a cornerstone of the UAF strategic position, ensuring a unified European-Atlantic front before meeting the new US administration.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF IO Operations: Russian state media (TASS) is focusing on domestic/Belarusian "stability" (e.g., Lukashenko's hockey incident) and criticizing Western energy transitions (Germany/Hydrogen) to project an image of Western incompetence versus Russian resilience.
Narrative Warfare: RF sources are aggressively framing any Ukrainian proposal for withdrawal as a sign of imminent collapse, attempting to preemptively poison the diplomatic well.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will honor the ZNPP repair window but simultaneously launch the anticipated Tu-22M3 missile strike from Shaykovka AB (indicated by previous SAR surges) against Western Ukrainian energy or logistics hubs between 1800Z and 2000Z to overshadow the start of the Miami meeting.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces use the ZNPP "repair ceasefire" as cover to reposition mechanized assets for a surprise push toward Stepnohirsk or to reinforce the Huliaipole breakthrough.
Timeline: Critical diplomatic-kinetic intersection expected at 1800Z.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia (ZNPP/Enerhodar):TEMPORARY QUIET. Localized ceasefire in effect for utility repairs. Monitor for RF asset shifting under this cover.
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole):CRITICAL. Combat remains intense. RF units are attempting to exploit previous penetrations while UAF active defense persists.
Pokrovsk:STABILIZED/CONTESTED. UAF 7th Corps maintains the northern industrial anchor. RF continues "meat-grinder" assaults, trading high casualties for incremental yardage.
Northern Border:STABLE. No significant change since the last report; focus remains on the East and South.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation:CRITICAL THREAT. Shaykovka AB remains at peak readiness. Missile carrier activity is the primary threat for the next 6 hours.
Diplomatic Sabotage: RF state rhetoric indicates no willingness to freeze the conflict on current lines, suggesting a preference for continued escalation.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Maneuver: Zelenskyy's arrival in the US in combat-casual attire is a calculated IO move to emphasize the ongoing intensity of the war to the new US administration.
Diplomatic: High-level synchronization with the UK (Starmer) confirmed.
Information environment / disinformation
Propaganda Alert: RF sources (NgP Razvedka) are misrepresenting UAF withdrawal proposals as "surrender" to discourage Western support.
Internal Critique: Maksym Zhorin’s statements are being monitored for their potential to be co-opted by RF IO, though they reflect genuine internal UAF reform debates.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic Alert: Expect a surge in RF long-range strikes (missile/UAS) targeting Kyiv and Western hubs.
Tactical Alert: The Huliaipole/Stepnohirsk sector remains the most likely area for an RF "demonstration" breakthrough during the Miami summit.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
ZNPP Asset Tracking: Verify if RF is moving armor or EW systems into the ZNPP perimeter during the "repair ceasefire."
Shaykovka AB Status: Real-time monitoring of Tu-22M3 engine starts or taxiing activity.
Internal Morale: Assess the impact of Zhorin’s comments on 3rd Assault Corps and adjacent unit cohesion.
