HULIAIPOLE URBAN CONTEST: General Staff confirms a "difficult situation" in Huliaipole. While parts of the settlement are under RF control, UAF Southern Command maintains control over a "notable portion" and is actively engaging consolidation groups. (1534Z, 1548Z, RBC-Ukraine/Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
POKROVSK STABILIZATION: 7th Corps (DShV) confirms UAF forces maintain control over the northern industrial sectors of Pokrovsk, providing a defensive anchor in the sector. (1548Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
SSO DEEP STRIKE: Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) successfully conducted drone strikes using FP-2 platforms against a Russian "Shahed" warehouse, a pontoon bridge, and equipment concentrations in the Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT). (1532Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC POSITIONING: Financial Times reports President Zelenskyy has expressed readiness for a mutual troop withdrawal if Russia reciprocates, indicating a potential tactical-diplomatic pivot ahead of the Trump meeting. (1544Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM).
NATO INTEGRATION: Ukrainian JATEC experts have integrated into NATO Article 5 mechanisms for the first time during the LOYAL DOLOS 2025 exercises. (1551Z, UA General Staff, HIGH).
RF INTERNAL FRICTION: Pro-war pundits (Maxim Klimov, Ivan Otradkovsky) are openly claiming that the Russian high command is "deceiving" Putin regarding the true state of the front. (1546Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM).
UNCONFIRMED ABRAMS LOSS: Russian sources claim the destruction of a UAF Abrams tank near Mykolaipillia via a "Lancet" loitering munition. (1536Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by intense localized urban combat in the Southern Sector (Huliaipole) and a stabilization of the Pokrovsk Axis. The battlefield geometry in Huliaipole is fluid; RF forces have established a foothold, but UAF active defense remains effective. Strategic focus is currently split between the kinetic front and the Miami diplomatic window (1800Z-2100Z). Icy road conditions continue to degrade logistical throughput and mechanized maneuver nationwide.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Course of Action: In Zaporizhzhia, the RF is attempting to consolidate gains in Huliaipole while simultaneously pushing toward Stepnohirsk. The objective is likely to demonstrate UAF defensive fragility to coincide with Western diplomatic engagements.
Weaponry & Adaptations: Continued use of "Lancet" loitering munitions for high-value asset targeting (e.g., Abrams tanks) suggests a prioritized counter-armor mission in the Southern and Pokrovsk sectors.
Internal C2: The open criticism of RF military leadership by influential pundits indicates a growing gap between front-line realities and Kremlin reporting. This may lead to erratic "demonstration" attacks as commanders feel pressured to produce reportable successes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: UAF 7th Corps (DShV) has successfully established a defensive line in northern Pokrovsk, stemming the momentum of the RF advance in that sector.
Offensive Capability: The SSO strike on the Shahed warehouse indicates a persistent capability to conduct high-payoff target (HPT) interdiction in the Russian rear, specifically targeting the RF's long-range strike infrastructure.
Integration: Participation in LOYAL DOLOS 2025 signals an acceleration of Ukraine's "de facto" NATO interoperability, specifically in collective defense protocols (Article 5).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic IO (RF): Russian media is amplifying Donald Trump's criticisms of the UN (1538Z, TASS) to undermine multilateral support frameworks. Concurrently, they are framing Zelenskyy's withdrawal proposals as "unrealistic" to preemptively discredit diplomatic outcomes.
Tactical IO (UAF): Defense Forces of the South are utilizing combat footage (1531Z) to maintain morale and counter Russian claims of a total breakthrough in Huliaipole.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity assaults in Huliaipole and Stepnohirsk to create a "frontline collapse" narrative before 2100Z. A multi-axis missile/UAS strike targeting energy or C2 nodes remains highly probable during the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the Huliaipole breach to conduct a rapid flanking maneuver toward the Dobropillia-Pokrovsk logistics hub, utilizing the current preoccupation of UAF reserves with the urban fight.
Timeline: Peak kinetic and aerial activity expected between 1700Z and 2200Z.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole/Stepnohirsk):CRITICAL. Intense urban fighting. Front line runs through the central sectors of Huliaipole.
Pokrovsk:STABILIZED. UAF DShV holding northern industrial zone; RF attempts to push toward Dobropillia are currently localized.
Siversk:ACTIVE. RF pushing for tactical heights near Yampil and Zakotne to gain fire control over UAF GLOCs.
Kupyansk:HIGH INTENSITY. Ongoing urban clearing operations; RF attempting to sever Oskil river crossings.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Deep Strike Capability: Shahed drone launches may be temporarily hampered by the SSO warehouse strike, but tactical "Geran" threats to Kyiv remain active.
Loitering Munitions: High threat to UAF heavy armor from Lancets in the Mykolaipillia/Dobropillia directions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Interdiction: SSO successfully targeting RF logistics and drone storage in occupied Donetsk/Luhansk.
Diplomatic Engagement: President Zelenskyy coordinating with UK PM Starmer (1603Z) to synchronize positions ahead of the US meeting.
Information environment / disinformation
UNCONFIRMED: Russian claims of Abrams destruction lack multi-source corroboration and are assessed as LOW confidence.
Propaganda: RF sources (WarGonzo, Operation Z) are heavily editing combat footage to project a narrative of UAF abandonment and "messy" retreats.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Aviation/Missile: High alert for Tu-22M3 launches from Shaykovka AB based on previously reported SAR surge.
Tactical: Huliaipole will remain the kinetic epicenter. Expect RF to commit "consolidation groups" to secure any northern progress before nightfall.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA on Shahed Warehouse: Confirm the extent of destruction at the TOT warehouse to estimate the impact on near-term RF drone wave capacity.
Abrams Status: Verification of the 1536Z Lancet strike claim to assess RF counter-armor effectiveness.
Stepnohirsk Dispositions: Precise mapping of the RF infiltration depth toward Stepnohirsk is required to assess the risk of a wider Zaporizhzhia encirclement.
