HULIAIPOLE PARTIAL BREACH: Official UAF Southern Command confirms Russian forces have seized parts of Huliaipole. RF is actively deploying "consolidation groups" to secure gains under heavy KAB and drone support. (1528Z, Сили оборони Півдня України, HIGH).
ZELENSKYY ARRIVAL IN MIAMI: President Zelenskyy has arrived in Miami for the high-stakes meeting with Donald Trump, scheduled for the coming hours. (1524Z, Военкор Котенок, HIGH).
KUPYANSK KINETIC SURGE: RF 68th Division is reportedly engaging UAF mechanized elements on the approaches to Kupyansk with high intensity. (1506Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM).
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT: Ukrainian State Emergency Service (DSNS) issued a nationwide alert for black ice and hazardous road conditions, complicating logistics and CASEVAC. (1512Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
SIVERSK AXIS ACTIVATION: Combat for tactical heights is reported near Zakotne and Reznikovka (Sloviansk/Siversk direction). (1515Z, Рыбарь, MEDIUM).
KYIV DRONE INCIDENT: At least one "Geran" (Shahed) UAS struck power lines in Kyiv during a low-altitude approach, highlighting continued localized aerial threats despite the weather. (1520Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational situation has deteriorated in the Zaporizhzhia Sector, where Russian forces have transitioned from "harassment" to a successful penetration of the Huliaipole urban area. This confirms the previously assessed "Primorske-Huliaipole offensive" is in its execution phase. Simultaneously, President Zelenskyy’s arrival in Miami marks the start of the critical diplomatic window (1800Z-2100Z). Environmental factors have shifted from "snow/blizzard" to widespread black ice, which will likely slow mechanized maneuver for both sides but increase the risk of logistical bottlenecks in the tactical rear.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Shift (Penal Units): Internal RF communications (A. Khodakovsky, 0630Z) admit that nearly all current Russian assault units are functioning as "shatrafbats" (penal units). Commanders are reportedly using coercive "instruments" to motivate troops, and the "first blood" rule (where a wound allows exit from the unit) is no longer being honored. This indicates a command climate of extreme attrition-based pressure.
Zaporizhzhia Offensive: The RF is leveraging a significant advantage in KABs (glide bombs) and NARs (unguided rockets) to displace UAF from fortified positions in Huliaipole. This suggests a shift toward "scorched earth" urban clearing rather than bypass maneuvers.
Kupyansk Axis: The commitment of the 68th Division indicates a concentrated effort to sever UAF GLOCs to the Oskil River before the ground completely freezes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Strain: UAF Southern Command acknowledges a "difficult" situation in Huliaipole, citing Russian superiority in manpower and aviation. The priority is preventing the RF from establishing a permanent "consolidation" within the town's northern sectors.
Strategic Posture: Zelenskyy’s stated expectation (via FT) that the US should focus on "pressuring Moscow" rather than expecting a Russian withdrawal suggests a pivot toward a long-term "pressure-cooker" diplomatic strategy.
Logistics: Black ice on the roads across Ukraine is a significant non-kinetic threat to the movement of reserves and ammunition.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
"Dialogue" Narrative: RF state media (TASS/Slutsky) is actively pushing a narrative that the "danger of direct conflict" with the US has passed and that relations are moving toward "common sense." This is likely an attempt to project a "reasonable" image to the Trump camp while maintaining maximum kinetic pressure on the ground.
Tactical Propaganda: Russian channels are amplifying footage of destroyed UAF equipment near Kupyansk to demoralize Ukrainian reserves ahead of the Miami meeting.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify KAB strikes on Huliaipole and Stepnohirsk over the next 6 hours to present a "collapsing front" narrative during the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. The previously identified Shaykovka AB surge remains the likely trigger for a multi-axis missile strike between 1700Z and 2100Z.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A rapid mechanized breakthrough from Huliaipole toward the Pokrovske-Zaporizhzhia highway, utilizing the 14th Spetsnaz to disrupt UAF C2 nodes in the rear while the strategic strike hits Kyiv's energy grid.
Weather Factor: Icy conditions will likely lead to an increase in UAS-led attrition over mechanized assaults for the next 12-24 hours.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole):CRITICAL. RF has seized part of the settlement. Intense urban combat ongoing.
Kupyansk:HIGH INTENSITY. 68th Division attempting to destroy UAF equipment and bypass city defenses.
Siversk (Zakotne/Reznikovka):ACTIVE. Fighting for dominant heights; RF attempting to improve tactical positioning.
Kyiv:THREAT PERSISTS. Small-scale UAS penetrations confirmed; mass strike remains probable.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation (CRITICAL): High use of KAB/NAR in the South.
Infiltration (HIGH): RF "consolidation groups" are the primary threat in Huliaipole.
Diplomatic Sabotage: RF state narratives are synchronized to undermine Ukrainian maximalist positions during US-UA talks.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: Attempting to contain the breach in Huliaipole despite inferior numbers.
Strategic Diplomacy: High-level engagement in Miami to secure long-term US support.
Information environment / disinformation
UNCONFIRMED CLAIM: Russian claims of "massive destruction" of UAF equipment in Kupyansk (Operation Z) lack independent corroboration and are assessed as LOW confidence/Propaganda.
Slutsky (TASS) Narrative: "Danger of conflict has passed" is a calculated IO move to soften Western resolve.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Expected to peak between 1700Z and 2100Z. High probability of a large-scale missile/drone wave targeting Kyiv or energy infrastructure to coincide with the Miami meeting.
Tactical: High risk of further territorial loss in the Huliaipole sector if reserves are not successfully deployed through icy road conditions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole Control Map: Urgent requirement for precise drone/satellite imagery to delineate the current "Line of Contact" within the town.
Shaykovka Activity Update: Confirm if Tu-22M3 aircraft have taxied or launched.
Stepnohirsk Infiltration: Clarify the extent of RF activity in Stepnohirsk—is it reconnaissance or a coordinated assault?
