DEEP STRIKE ON SYZRAN OIL REFINERY: UAF successfully conducted a long-range drone strike against the Syzran Oil Refinery in the Samara region, Russia (~800km+ from the border). Significant kinetic impact reported. (1501Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SPETSNAZ ACTIVITY: Russian 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, coordinated with the 5th Army (Group Vostok), is actively conducting high-intensity drone-led harassment against UAF infantry in treelines across the Zaporizhzhia sector. (1500Z, Воин DV, HIGH).
ALL-CLEAR IN ZAPORIZHZHIA: Regional authorities issued an all-clear following a period of aerial threat. This suggests a momentary pause in the expected missile/drone surge or the completion of a specific wave. (1501Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
TACTICAL FPV SUCCESS: Ukrainian drone operators confirmed localized successful engagements of RF personnel via FPV "kamikaze" drones, maintaining high lethality despite deteriorating winter weather. (1501Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high despite "harsh winter weather" (snow/blizzards) reported in the South. The battlefield is currently defined by a "dueling deep-strike" dynamic: while the RF prepares massed aviation assets (Shaykovka AB surge), UAF has successfully struck a critical Russian energy node in Syzran. In the Zaporizhzhia sector, the focus has shifted to small-unit drone attrition in treelines, likely as a shaping operation for the Primorske offensive mentioned in previous reports.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Force Composition (Zaporizhzhia): The presence of the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade working with the 5th Army indicates that Russia is committing elite reconnaissance and strike assets to the Southern Front. This suggests a sophisticated attempt to map UAF defensive gaps through "drone-sniping" before committing heavier mechanized elements.
Strategic Logistics: The strike on the Syzran Oil Refinery directly targets Russia's refined product supply chain. This is a critical counter-move to RF strikes on Naftogaz and the Kherson TPP.
Adaptation: RF forces are continuing operations despite "cold and blizzard" conditions, indicating high levels of winter readiness or a command mandate to maintain pressure regardless of environmental factors.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Reach: UAF’s ability to strike Samara (Syzran) confirms that long-range UAS capabilities remain intact and capable of bypassing RF domestic air defenses despite the "AD/EW consolidation" in Crimea.
Tactical Resilience: UAF units in Zaporizhzhia are under high-intensity drone pressure but remain in positions within the treelines.
Air Defense Posture: High-readiness levels are being maintained; the "all-clear" in Zaporizhzhia may indicate a successful interception or a tactical shift in RF flight paths.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Deflection Narratives: RF-aligned channels (Colonelcassad) are disseminating "man-on-the-street" style content to argue that Russia is culturally tolerant. This is a clear cognitive operation aimed at undermining the "aggressor state" narrative during the high-stakes Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (scheduled 20:00 Kyiv time).
Psychological Operations: RF drone units are sharing graphic videos of infantry engagements to demoralize UAF front-line reserves during the winter shift.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity drone and small-unit pressure in Zaporizhzhia (Primorske axis) to pin UAF reserves. The "Spoiler Strike" from Shaykovka AB remains the primary threat for the 1700Z-2100Z window.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A retaliatory strike for the Syzran refinery targeting Ukrainian government buildings or critical energy infrastructure in the Kyiv region, timed precisely to coincide with the 18:00Z start of diplomatic engagements in the U.S.
Timeline Estimate: Expect a surge in kinetic activity across the South within the next 4-6 hours as the "all-clear" period likely concludes with a new wave of UAS/missile launches.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia (Primorske/Huliaipole):HIGH INTENSITY DRONE COMBAT. RF Spetsnaz and 5th Army are aggressively hunting UAF infantry. Weather is a complicating factor but not a deterrent.
Donbas Rear:UNCERTAIN. Still monitoring for the "threatening tendency" (sabotage/infiltration) reported at 1459Z.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Deep-Strike Retaliation (HIGH): The Syzran strike increases the probability that Russia will escalate its planned missile wave today.
Spetsnaz Drone Operations (HIGH): The integration of 14th Spetsnaz into the 5th Army's sector indicates a localized offensive focus in Western Zaporizhzhia.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Long-range Strike Operations: Sustained ability to hit strategic targets deep inside the RF.
Air Defense: Successfully managing air raid cycles in the Southern regions.
Information environment / disinformation
"Fascism-Deflection" Campaign: Pro-Russian narratives are focusing on cultural tolerance to mitigate diplomatic pressure during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Kinetic: Extremely high. The window for the anticipated mass missile strike (Shaykovka AB indicators) is now opening.
Diplomatic: High-visibility meeting at 1800Z-2000Z will likely trigger RF kinetic "messaging."
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Syzran BDA: Request satellite imagery (SAR/Optical) to confirm the extent of damage to the refinery distillation units.
14th Spetsnaz Disposition: Identify the specific staging areas for the 14th Guards Spetsnaz to enable counter-battery or drone-swarm strikes.
Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Trigger: Identify what triggered the most recent alert (UAVs or ballistic indicators) to assess RF strike patterns.
