ZELENSKYY-TRUMP DIPLOMATIC COORDINATION: Meeting confirmed for 20:00 Kyiv time (13:00 EST). Reports indicate a plan for a joint call to European leaders following the bilateral discussion to present a unified stance. (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1456Z; РБК-Україна, 1454Z, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA ESCALATION (PRIMORSKE): Heavy tactical engagements reported in the Primorske direction (Western Zaporizhzhia). This represents a widening of the RF offensive pressure beyond the Huliaipole axis. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 1458Z, HIGH).
UGV DEPLOYMENT (HULIAIPOLE): Employment of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) confirmed west of Huliaipole, marking an evolution in the "robotics war" on the Southern Front. (Kotsnews, 1445Z, HIGH).
DONBAS REAR SECURITY THREAT: Indicators of a "threatening tendency" (likely infiltration or sabotage) identified in the tactical rear of UAF units operating in Donbas. (Zvиздец Мангусту, 1459Z, MEDIUM).
SUMY SECTOR ACTIVITY: UAF drone units ("Wings to Hell") successfully engaged RF assault elements attempting to advance in Sumy Oblast, confirming localized RF offensive intent in the northern border region. (STERNENKO, 1441Z, HIGH).
RUSSIAN SPACE LOGISTICS: Successful launch of a Soyuz 2.1b rocket from Vostochny carrying 52 satellites, including the "Lobachevsky" (memristor tech testing), indicating sustained RF aerospace capability. (Глеб Никитин, 1440Z, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is transitioning from a localized clearing operation (Kupyansk) to a broader, multi-sector pressure campaign. While the previous 24h focused on Kupyansk and infrastructure strikes, the current period shows renewed RF activity in Sumy and a significant escalation in Western Zaporizhzhia (Primorske). The integration of UGVs and persistent UAS activity suggests a high-tech attrition phase.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Shifts: RF is increasingly utilizing UGVs west of Huliaipole (1445Z) to augment or replace infantry in high-risk zones. In Crimea, RF has stood up integrated counter-UAV units ("Vosmërka" and "The Irishmen") to protect naval/logistics hubs (Colonelcassad, 1440Z).
Rear Operations: The report of "threatening tendencies" in the UAF tactical rear in Donbas (1459Z) suggests RF Spetsnaz or diversionary groups (DRGs) are prioritizing the disruption of UAF GLOCs and C2 nodes as the front line moves closer to critical hubs.
Logistics Vulnerability: (UNCONFIRMED/LOW) Claims from Ukrainian Intelligence (SZRU) suggest RF textile industry collapse is forcing emergency procurement of military uniforms from China (РБК-Україна, 1441Z). If verified, this indicates a critical failure in RF's long-term war-sustenance capacity.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Success: UAF drone operators in the Sumy sector continue to effectively blunt RF border incursions (1441Z).
Force Health: The Ukrainian Ministry of Health is launching a 2000 UAH health screening initiative (1445Z), likely aimed at maintaining civilian/reserve resilience during the winter campaign.
Strategic Position: UAF is preparing for a potential breakthrough in diplomatic support; the reported joint call with Trump and EU leaders (1456Z) would be a significant force-multiplier for Western aid cohesion.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Geopolitical Threats: RF-aligned channels are amplifying a "China-Russia bloc" narrative, explicitly stating Russia will side with China in a Taiwan conflict to deter US support for Ukraine during the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (Старше Эдды, 1441Z).
Cognitive Operations: RF state media (TASS) is disseminating WSJ reports on "AI-induced psychosis" (1445Z), possibly to undermine trust in Western tech or UAF's increasing reliance on AI-driven drone targeting.
Messaging Divergence: Conflicting reports on meeting times (20:00 Kyiv vs previous 20:00 Miami reports) suggest a fluid schedule or intentional disinformation to complicate media coverage.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify ground assaults in the Primorske direction (Zaporizhzhia) to force UAF to redeploy reserves from the Pokrovsk/Kupyansk axes. Kinetic activity in Sumy will remain at the level of DRG incursions and drone skirmishes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF activates the "threatening tendency" in the Donbas rear—specifically targeting C2 nodes—concurrent with a major mechanized push toward Primorske to trigger a localized defensive collapse during the high-profile diplomatic window (20:00 UTC+2).
Operational picture (by sector)
Sumy:ACTIVE BORDER DEFENSE. UAF UAS units are the primary deterrent against small-scale RF tactical advances.
Kupyansk:MOUT (Military Operations in Urban Terrain). Continuation of clearing operations; RF resistance remains in isolated pockets.
Donbas Rear:SECURITY ALERT. Emergent threat from RF infiltration/sabotage units targeting tactical support zones.
Zaporizhzhia (Primorske/Huliaipole):MECHANIZED & ROBOTIC ASSAULT. RF is testing UGV integration while pushing toward Primorske with high intensity.
Crimea:AD/EW CONSOLIDATION. RF units are refining joint counter-UAV tactics to mitigate UAF "saturation" drone strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UGV Integration (MEDIUM): RF use of ground robots in Huliaipole signals a shift to minimize personnel losses in minefields or contested urban edges.
Rear Area Sabotage (HIGH): The shift in focus to the "tactical rear" suggests RF is attempting to replicate the "blinding" tactics used in Pokrovsk elsewhere in Donbas.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical UAS: Sustained high-tempo drone operations in Sumy and the Eastern Forest sectors.
Strategic Realignment: UAF Command is likely preparing for a potential shift in US policy post-Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
Information environment / disinformation
Sino-Russian Alliance Narrative: High-confidence RF propaganda aimed at leveraging US domestic fears of a two-front war (Ukraine/Taiwan).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Strategic: Critical decision point at 18:00-20:00Z during the Miami/Washington diplomatic engagement.
Tactical: High probability of RF escalation in the Primorske sector and potential sabotage attempts in the Donbas rear.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Primorske Order of Battle: Identify the specific RF units involved in the new Primorske push to determine if these are fresh reserves or rotated elements.
"Threatening Tendency" Clarification: Need ELINT/SIGINT to define the nature of the Donbas rear threat (electronic warfare, DRG activity, or civilian unrest).
RF-China Logistics: Confirm via satellite imagery or human intelligence (HUMINT) any large-scale textile/uniform shipments from China to RF logistics hubs (e.g., Belgorod or Rostov).
