ZELENSKYY-TRUMP MEETING: President Zelenskyy has arrived in Miami; a meeting with Donald Trump is scheduled for 20:00 local time to discuss the Ukrainian peace plan. (РБК-Україна, 1408Z; Оперативний ЗСУ, 1412Z, HIGH).
KUPYANSK CLEARING OPERATIONS: UAF sources report ongoing "mopping up" of Russian "pockets" within Kupyansk, suggesting a shift from defensive urban combat to clearing remaining RF infiltration elements. (РБК-Україна, 1424Z, MEDIUM).
INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (KHERSON): RF forces conducted a targeted strike against the Kherson Thermal Power Plant (TPP), part of the Naftogaz Group, continuing the strategic campaign against heating infrastructure. (РБК-Україна, 1425Z, HIGH).
FIBER-OPTIC FPV DEPLOYMENT: The "SIGNUM" battalion (53rd Mech Bde) successfully utilized fiber-optic FPV drones to ambush RF infantry in the Serebryanske Forest (Lyman sector). This confirms the operational use of jamming-resistant UAS technology. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 1416Z; ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1424Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA AERIAL PRESSURE: UA Air Force confirmed new KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches targeting the Zaporizhzhia region, following reports of combat activity near Prymorske. (UA Air Force, 1434Z, HIGH).
MAKIIVKA INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE: A significant underground water/communal infrastructure collapse reported in occupied Makiivka, likely degrading local logistics or occupation administration stability. (Mash на Донбассе, 1407Z, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly defined by two parallel tracks: high-intensity tactical attrition on the Eastern Front (Kupyansk-Lyman) and a strategic focus on the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting in Miami. Weather remains a looming factor, but current visibility allows for sustained KAB and UAS operations. RF targeting has definitively pivoted toward Naftogaz-linked heating assets, as evidenced by the Kherson TPP strike.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Force Employment (Kupyansk): RF MoD continues to claim offensive "assault operations" and UAS-led destruction of UAF assets (MoD Russia, 1415Z). The discrepancy between RF "assault" claims and UAF "clearing" reports indicates the city center is likely a "gray zone" with fragmented RF units isolated in small pockets.
Strategic Targeting: The strike on Kherson TPP (1425Z) aligns with the MDCOA identified in the previous daily report regarding a "systemic heating collapse." RF is prioritizing the destruction of power and heat cogeneration before the peak of winter.
Vulnerability: Significant infrastructure failures in Makiivka (1407Z) suggest the RF/DNR occupation authorities are struggling to maintain basic services under wartime strain, which may offer opportunities for localized civil discontent.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Tactical Innovation: The successful use of fiber-optic FPV drones (1416Z) in the Serebryanske Forest is a critical development. These drones bypass traditional Electronic Warfare (EW) jamming, allowing UAF to maintain precision strike capabilities even in high-EW environments.
Defensive Posture: UAF remains in a high-attrition defensive mode in the East but is actively counter-attacking isolated RF groups in Kupyansk. The reinforcement of the Zaporizhzhia front with weekly aid packages (1406Z) suggests a stabilized logistics flow to the Southern Axis despite constant KAB pressure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Diplomatic Narratives: RF-aligned channels are preemptively framing the Miami meeting as a failure, citing Western outlets to claim Trump expects "nothing worthwhile" (Операция Z, 1420Z).
AI/Deepfake Preemption: Russian state media (TASS, 1421Z) is amplifying reports of AI-generated content on YouTube. This is likely a hybrid effort to provide "plausible deniability" for future leaked footage of RF losses or tactical failures.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the "KAB-saturation" tactic in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk over the next 12 hours. Kupyansk will remain the site of high-intensity urban skirmishing as UAF attempts to eliminate the remaining RF "pockets."
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Concurrent with the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (20:00 local), RF launches a mass missile/UAV strike on Kyiv or energy hubs to demonstrate Ukrainian vulnerability and exert maximum psychological pressure on the diplomatic process.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk:URBAN CLEARING. UAF is conducting house-to-house clearing of RF remnants. RF aviation continues to strike approaches to prevent UAF reinforcement.
Lyman (Serebryanske Forest):HIGH ATTRITION. UAF has the technical edge using fiber-optic drones; RF infantry units are suffering high losses in forested terrain.
Kherson:INFRASTRUCTURE DEFENSE. Following the TPP strike, emergency repairs and localized heating crises are expected.
Zaporizhzhia:AERIAL BOMBARDMENT. Frequent KAB launches indicate an RF attempt to soften the front line for potential mechanized movement.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation (HIGH): KAB strikes are the primary RF tool for breaking defensive lines.
Infrastructure Attrition (CRITICAL): Focus on Naftogaz/TPP assets is intended to trigger a humanitarian crisis via heating loss.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's mission in Miami is the primary non-kinetic effort.
Electronic Warfare Counter-measures: Increasing reliance on fiber-optic UAS to negate RF EW superiority in the Lyman sector.
Information environment / disinformation
"Nothing Worthwhile" Narrative: Anticipate heavy RF amplification of any perceived friction between Zelenskyy and the incoming US administration.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Strategic: High-stakes diplomatic activity in Miami; potential for "spoiler" strikes by RF.
Tactical: Continued clearing of Kupyansk and sustained KAB activity in the South.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kherson TPP Damage Assessment: Need BDA to determine if the heating capacity is permanently lost for the winter season.
Kupyansk Center Control: Need visual confirmation of the FEBA to verify if "pockets" are isolated or if RF has a continuous supply line into the city.
Makiivka Logistics: Determine if the "infrastructure failure" affects RF military movements along the Donetsk-Makiivka axis.
