KUPYANSK ENGAGEMENTS: RF MoD released footage of the destruction of UAF vehicles, armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), and robotic platforms on the approaches to Kupyansk, confirming high-intensity combat in the peri-urban zone. (TASS, 1345Z, HIGH).
EXPANDED KAB TARGETING: UAF Air Force confirms new Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting both the Donetsk region and Eastern Kharkiv from northern launch points. (UA Air Force, 1345Z/1349Z, HIGH).
ZOLOCHIV STRIKE: RF forces utilized "Molniya" loitering munitions to target civilian infrastructure in Zolochiv, Kharkiv region, indicating continued pressure on border settlements. (Tsapliienko, 1355Z, HIGH).
PORT DEFENSE REINFORCEMENT: Ukrainian authorities report an increase in RF attacks on maritime infrastructure, prompting a tactical reinforcement of port defenses. (RBK-Ukraina, 1358Z, MEDIUM).
RF INTERNAL SECURITY: Putin signed legislation allowing officials to withhold income declarations and mandating the transition of residential "house chats" to the state-controlled "Max" messenger, likely to consolidate domestic information control. (ASTRA, 1347Z/1400Z, HIGH).
TROOP WITHDRAWAL RUMOR: RF sources are amplifying a claim (citing Financial Times) that Kyiv is prepared for a mirrored troop withdrawal; currently assessed as a psychological operation to test Ukrainian resolve. (Operatsiya Z, 1352Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is transitioning into a restrictive winter phase. Official forecasts for 29 DEC indicate light frost, snow, and icing (RBC-Ukraina, 1341Z), which will degrade ground mobility (MSR/ASR trafficability) and sensor performance for both sides. The frontline is characterized by RF's reliance on standoff aerial strikes (KABs) and the use of smaller, cheaper loitering munitions ("Molniya") to harass rear-area logistics and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Force Employment: Servicemen of the 68th Army Corps (Tsentr Group) are currently conducting communication trainings in rear areas (MoD Russia, 1347Z). This indicates a period of reorganization or pre-deployment preparation for a second-echelon force.
Aviation and Deep Strike: The launch of 52 satellites via Soyuz-2.1b (Colonelcassad, 1355Z) ensures continued RF capability for orbital reconnaissance and signal relay, crucial for long-range drone and missile targeting.
Tactical Adaptation: The specific targeting of UAF robotic platforms near Kupyansk (TASS, 1345Z) confirms that RF is prioritizing the neutralization of Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) that have been used to offset personnel shortages in high-attrition zones.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: UAF is actively hardening port infrastructure in response to increased RF targeting of the grain corridor and maritime logistics (RBC-Ukraina, 1358Z).
Kupyansk Defense: Despite RF claims of destruction, UAF remains engaged on the "approaches" to Kupyansk. The presence of robotic platforms (TASS, 1345Z) suggests a high-tech defensive posture intended to attrit RF mechanized assaults before they reach the city center.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Domestic Control (RF): The "Max" messenger mandate for residential groups (ASTRA, 1400Z) is a significant move to eliminate encrypted horizontal communication among Russian civilians, likely to prevent the organization of localized protests or dissent.
Narrative Manipulation: RF channels are utilizing reports of AI-generated "garbage" content on social media (Basurin, 1347Z) to preemptively discredit authentic footage of RF losses or war crimes as "AI-generated fakes."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify KAB strikes on Eastern Kharkiv and Donetsk over the next 12 hours before the weather system (snow/frost) fully sets in, attempting to capitalize on the current visibility.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the 68th Army Corps (currently training) for a sudden exploitation of the Siversk salient or Kupyansk approaches, timed with the first significant snowfall to mask movement from thermal reconnaissance.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk:HEAVILY CONTESTED. RF aviation and artillery are focused on "blinding" the defense by destroying UGVs and AFVs on the outskirts.
Kharkiv (Border):ACTIVE HARASSMENT. Increased use of "Molniya" drones against settlements like Zolochiv suggests a shift toward low-cost, high-frequency attrition of border areas.
Donetsk:HIGH INTENSITY. Sustained KAB launches indicate the RF main effort remains the Pokrovsk/Dobropillya axis.
Black Sea/Ports:THREAT RISING. Increased RF focus on maritime nodes necessitates immediate AD repositioning.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV/Missile (HIGH): The shift to "Molniya" drones indicates a diversification of the strike portfolio to sustain pressure during supply chain fluctuations for larger systems.
Internal C2 (MEDIUM): Training of the 68th Army Corps suggests a fresh maneuver element is nearing operational readiness.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defense-in-Depth: Continued use of robotic platforms in the East to minimize personnel exposure in the "gray zone" around Kupyansk.
Strategic Hardening: Reinforcement of ports to protect remaining export capacity.
Information environment / disinformation
"Mirror Withdrawal" Narrative: Treat all reports of mirroring troop withdrawals as DISINFORMATION designed to create internal political friction in Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Combat Intensity: Expected to spike in Kupyansk and Donetsk as RF attempts to secure tactical positions before 29 DEC weather degradation.
Aerial Activity: Potential for a nocturnal Shahed/Geran wave following the day's KAB activity.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
68th Army Corps Disposition: Precise location of the 68th Corps training grounds to determine which axis they are slated to reinforce.
Kupyansk FEBA: Clarification on the extent of RF penetration into the southern or eastern outskirts of Kupyansk.
Port Defense Gaps: Assessment of specific AD shortfalls at Odesa/Chornomorsk following the report of "increased attacks."
