ZNPP REPAIR TRUCE: Reports indicate a "temporary truce" has been declared at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to facilitate urgent repair work. (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1316Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
STRATEGIC AERIAL VOLUME: President Zelensky reported that RF has launched >2100 drones, ~800 KABs, and 94 missiles against Ukraine over the past 7 days, indicating a sustained, high-intensity bombardment phase. (ASTRA/Zelensky, 1305Z, HIGH).
DONETSK KAB SURGE: UAF Air Force confirms fresh launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk region, likely supporting the RF push toward the Dobropillya/Pokrovsk axis. (UA Air Force, 1307Z, HIGH).
SUMY LOGISTICAL STRIKE: RF drone targeted a civilian bread delivery vehicle in the Sumy region; follows reports of successful RF "engagements" in the Sumy border direction. (RBK-Ukraina/Dva Mayora, 1319Z-1325Z, HIGH).
SPACE DOMAIN ACTIVITY: RF successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Vostochny carrying two "Aist-2T" satellites and 50 secondary payloads, maintaining their orbital ISR/communication replenishment capability. (TASS, 1329Z, HIGH).
HYBRID DISINFORMATION: Pro-Russian channels are circulating claims of an "assassination attempt" on Belarusian President Lukashenko; analysis indicates a significant mismatch between textual claims and visual evidence, suggesting a manufactured "terrorist" narrative. (Alex Parker Returns, 1322Z, LOW/DISINFORMATION).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is dominated by high-volume aerial attrition and a transition toward localized "truces" for critical infrastructure (ZNPP). Weather conditions are deteriorating in the Kharkiv sector, with official warnings of "worsening conditions" (Sinegubov, 1328Z) that will likely impact visibility for FPV operations and ground mobility. The battlefield geometry remains fixed, but the density of RF aerial strikes (KABs/Drones) is designed to compensate for slowing ground movement due to winter conditions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Logistics and Sustainment: RF continues to exhibit signs of non-standard logistical adaptations. Following reports of pack animals (donkeys), new footage shows a camel on the front lines (OperativnoZSU, 1305Z). While presented as mockery, this underscores a persistent RF effort to maintain "last-mile" logistics through non-mechanized means to evade FPV detection.
Medical Capabilities: RF second-echelon units are increasingly promoting non-standard/privately assembled Individual First Aid Kits (IFAK) ("Healer" brand), suggesting continued gaps in standard MoD medical supply chains for specialized tactical care (Dva Mayora, 1303Z).
Counter-Intelligence: The FSB claims to have neutralized a three-person "Ukrainian agent" ring in the occupied DNR (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1331Z; Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.197). This likely serves as a justification for intensified internal security measures in rear areas.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Anti-UAV Performance: The 19th Brigade of the NGU reported high-efficiency drone interception, downing 19 Shahed-type UAVs over the holiday period (1334Z). This demonstrates effective point-defense capabilities despite the massive saturation reported by the President.
Force Posture: UAF remains in a defensive posture in the Sumy and Donetsk sectors, facing high-frequency KAB strikes. Readiness in the Kharkiv region is focused on weather-proofing positions as temperatures drop and icing potential increases.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation Vector: RF sources are intensifying "forced mobilization" narratives, specifically claiming TCC and police are "flooding villages" (Operatsiya Z, 1316Z; Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.183). This is a coordinated IO effort to incite rural unrest.
Economic Narrative: Ukrainian state-aligned media is amplifying reports of a pending Russian economic collapse due to sanctions (RBK-Ukraina, 1318Z), likely to bolster domestic morale against the backdrop of heavy aerial strikes.
Strategic Signaling: Putin’s signing of a legislative package (TASS, 1319Z) is being utilized to project an image of "business as usual" and legislative stability despite the intensity of the winter campaign.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the current volume of drone saturation (Shahed/Geran) against Southern and Northern cities while utilizing the temporary ZNPP "repair truce" to potentially reposition assets or conduct reconnaissance under the guise of technical work.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RF offensive in the Sumy sector, utilizing the recent "successful engagements" and drone strikes on civilian logistics (bread trucks) as a shaping operation to create a new "buffer zone" similar to the Vovchansk operation.
Operational picture (by sector)
Sumy/Kharkiv:ACTIVE THREAT. Weather is deteriorating. RF drone strikes on civilian logistics (bread trucks) indicate a broadening of target sets to include local distribution.
Zaporizhzhia:SENSITIVE. Drone threats from the south persist (1330Z). The ZNPP repair "truce" is the primary operational variable; if confirmed, it may signal a brief localized de-escalation or a deceptive window.
Donetsk (Dobropillya/Pokrovsk):HIGH INTENSITY. Continuous KAB launches (1307Z) indicate RF is prioritizing this sector for immediate tactical gains before weather fully limits aviation.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation (HIGH): RF maintains the ability to launch 100+ KABs and drones daily. The weekly total of 2100+ drones indicates a significant increase in production or stockpile release.
C2/Internal Security (MEDIUM): RF is tightening control in the DNR through publicized counter-espionage operations to mitigate partisan influence.
Space (LOW TACTICAL / HIGH STRATEGIC): Successful Soyuz launch ensures RF maintains satellite redundancy for the 2026 campaign.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile NGU groups (19th Bde) are successfully attriting long-range UAVs, but the sheer volume of strikes is testing saturation limits.
Strategic Communication: High-level reporting of RF strike statistics is being used to maintain international focus on AD requirements.
Information environment / disinformation
Belarusian Provocation: The Lukashenko "assassination" claim is assessed as a distraction or a precursor to increased Belarusian military positioning near the border.
Mobilization Friction: Expect localized protests or friction in rural Ukraine to be heavily amplified by RF telegram channels over the next 48h.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Weather Impact: Ground operations in Kharkiv will likely slow due to icing/adverse conditions.
Drone Saturation: Continued "Shahed" arrivals in Zaporizhzhia and Southern regions throughout the night.
ZNPP Verification: Priority is to confirm the validity and scope of the reported "truce."
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
ZNPP Truce Status: Confirmation from IAEA or official UA Energoatom sources regarding the "repair truce."
Sumy Border Strength: Assessment of RF troop concentrations near the Sumy border to determine if recent engagements are a precursor to a larger incursion.
Kupyansk FEBA (Updated): Still requiring visual confirmation of the urban center status following conflicting "initiative" claims from 1300Z.
