KUPYANSK COUNTER-ENGAGEMENT: RF forces claim to have "regained initiative," purportedly repelling a UAF counter-offensive within Kupyansk city limits. Reports indicate "heavy" urban combat. (Colonelcassad, 1303Z; Kotsnews, 1240Z, MEDIUM).
DOBROPILLYA SECTOR ENGAGEMENT: National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) units (Lasar’s Group/1st "Azov" Corps) successfully repelled an RF assault. This indicates an expansion of high-intensity contact toward the Dobropillya axis. (RBK-Ukraina, 1242Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA DRONE OFFENSIVE: RF 1198th Motorized Rifle Regiment (35th Army) is conducting sustained FPV and drone-drop operations NW of Huliaipole, specifically targeting positions in Verkhnya Tersa. (Voin DV, 1300Z, HIGH).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT (KAB): RF tactical aviation launched a fresh wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Kharkiv and Sumy regions from northern launch points. (UA Air Force, 1236Z-1300Z, HIGH).
WEATHER-INDUCED GLOC DISRUPTION: Adverse winter weather in Prykarpattia (Ivano-Frankivsk) has caused significant road traffic accidents involving transport buses, likely impacting regional logistics and personnel movement. (RBK-Ukraina, 1251Z, HIGH).
TACTICAL ADAPTATION (LOGISTICS): Evidence suggests RF forces may be resorting to primitive logistical means (pack animals/donkeys) to supplement last-mile delivery in challenging terrain where vehicles are vulnerable to FPVs. (Butusov Plus, 1246Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high across three primary axes (Kupyansk, Donbas, and Zaporizhzhia). RF is attempting to exploit its recent momentum in Kupyansk by transitioning from defensive containment of UAF counter-attacks to renewed offensive pressure. Weather is becoming a primary tactical factor, with sub-zero temperatures and precipitation causing logistical friction in Western Ukraine and forcing tactical adaptations on the front lines.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Changes: RF "Southern" and "East" groupings are increasingly reliant on "crowdfunded" or "donated" equipment (Dva Mayora, 1250Z), suggesting gaps in the standard MoD supply chain for specialized tactical gear.
Air Capabilities: The persistence of KAB strikes against Kharkiv/Sumy indicates RF aviation continues to operate with relative impunity in the northern border zones, likely utilizing stand-off ranges to bypass mobile AD.
Course of Action: RF is currently attempting to "blind" UAF defenders in the Huliaipole sector using saturation drone strikes (1198th MRR) to facilitate small-unit infiltration.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Success: UAF/NGU units (Lasar’s Group) demonstrate high readiness in the Dobropillya direction, effectively utilizing integrated drone/infantry tactics to break mechanized or squad-level assaults.
Active Defense: The 210th Separate Assault Battalion is maintaining the line in Zaporizhzhia, utilizing combat documentation to maintain morale and potentially signal for tactical reinforcements (1238Z).
Attrition Operations: UAF continues to successfully attrit RF personnel in the Kharkiv sector via FPV strikes, as evidenced by geolocated kills (Sternenko, 1243Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Influence Ops: Rybar (1255Z) is amplifying narratives regarding "intensified mobilization" in Ukraine to incite domestic friction. Sasha Kots is providing "on-the-ground" visual confirmation of Kupyansk's destruction to frame it as a fait accompli.
Civilian Morale: A violent stabbing in the Kyiv metro (1237Z) serves as a potential focal point for domestic anxiety, though currently assessed as a criminal rather than hybrid-warfare incident.
IO (DNR): RF media is profiling emergency services (MChS) in occupied Donetsk to project a narrative of "normalization" and civilian care amidst the conflict (1246Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to leverage its tactical aviation (KABs) to soften UAF defenses in Kharkiv and Sumy while simultaneously attempting to consolidate control over the Kupyansk city center before the end of the year.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough in the Dobropillya sector, if UAF NGU units are overstretched, could threaten the broader Pokrovsk-central Donbas defensive architecture, forcing a premature retrograde of UAF elements in the area.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk (Kharkiv):CRITICAL. Heavy urban fighting. RF claims to have halted UAF counter-attacks. Initiative is contested.
Dobropillya (Donetsk):ACTIVE. UAF NGU units successfully repelled recent assaults. Sector is heating up as RF seeks alternative bypasses to Pokrovsk.
Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia):HIGH THREAT. High density of RF drone activity NW of the city (Verkhnya Tersa). RF 35th Army is actively "shaping" this sector.
UAV Saturation: RF is effectively using the 1198th MRR for specialized drone operations in Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH)
Logistics: Possible use of non-standard transport (animals) indicates extreme desperation or extreme adaptation to the FPV-saturated environment. (MEDIUM)
Rear Incidents: Minor fire in Sochi (car service) is assessed as non-strategic. (LOW)
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: NGU (Azov) and 210th Assault Bde remain the primary stabilizing forces in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia respectively.
Counter-Offensive: UAF remains active in Kupyansk, though current RF claims suggest the counter-offensive may be stalling.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Panic: Expect increased RF bot activity around "TCC" and "man-hunting" narratives following the Rybar "signal" at 1255Z.
Dempster-Shafer Note: Belief scores for mobilization (0.02) and technology deployment (0.02) suggest these are emerging but not yet dominant tactical facts compared to established combat reports.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Continued Air Threat: Sustained KAB and potential "Geran" activity across Northern and Eastern Ukraine.
Logistical Slowdown: Icing and weather conditions in the West (Prykarpattia) will likely delay the arrival of Western-sourced supplies to the front.
Kupyansk Clarity: Expect visual confirmation of FEBA shifts in Kupyansk by 2100Z.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kupyansk FEBA: Precise identification of which blocks in Kupyansk are currently held by UAF vs. RF.
Dobropillya Intent: Determine if RF assault at Dobropillya was a reconnaissance-in-force or the start of a new secondary axis of advance.
RF 35th Army Strength: Assess the current mechanized capability of RF forces NW of Huliaipole to see if drone strikes are a precursor to a ground push.
