GLOC DISRUPTION (CRIMEA): Rail communication between the Russian Federation and occupied Crimea has been severed following an infrastructure incident within RF territory. (RBK-Ukraina, 1208Z, HIGH).
NEW WEAPON SYSTEM DEPLOYMENT: RF forces have reportedly conducted the first mass operational employment of guided precision munitions for the Tornado-S (9K515) MLRS during engagements in the Huliaipole sector. (Colonelcassad, 1221Z, MEDIUM).
LOGISTICAL ADAPTATION: RF "Southern" grouping has transitioned to using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for last-mile supply deliveries to frontline positions to mitigate UAF FPV strikes on traditional transport. (Basurin, 1213Z, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION: RF leadership (Putin/Lavrov) signaled a hardening of negotiation terms, stating that previous "soft capitulation" offers are becoming obsolete as RF forces advance in Donbas. (Kotsnews, 1207Z, MEDIUM).
AIR THREAT (SUMY/DNIPRO/ZAPORIZHZHIA): Multiple active threats reported, including KAB launches targeting Sumy and "Geran" UAVs vectored toward Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. (UA Air Force, 1210Z-1230Z, HIGH).
RF REAR INCIDENT: A significant fire destroyed a warehouse at a shoe factory in Torzhok (Tver Oblast); impact on military footwear supply chain is currently being assessed. (Operativnyi ZSU, 1214Z, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by an intensifying RF effort to consolidate gains before the New Year while hardening its strategic diplomatic posture. The disruption of the Crimean railway link (1208Z) is the most significant tactical development, potentially choking Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) for the Southern Group of Forces. Simultaneously, the RF continues its saturation campaign against the Ukrainian energy grid (2100+ UAVs in 7 days) to maximize leverage during "active diplomatic days" (1211Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Weaponry & Tactics: The confirmed use of Tornado-S guided rockets (1221Z) indicates RF has achieved a sufficient stockpile of precision-guided 300mm munitions to employ them at scale. This poses an increased threat to UAF command posts and logistics hubs previously considered out of range or requiring higher-cost missile assets (Iskander-M).
Logistics: The pivot to "Unmanned Supply" (1213Z) suggests RF is successfully adapting to the "saturated FPV environment" where traditional logistical vehicles (Ural/Kamaz) are highly vulnerable.
Strategic Intent: Comments from the Kremlin (1207Z) suggest RF is no longer interested in a frozen conflict on current lines and is shifting toward a "total liberation" (maximalist) narrative for the Donbas, likely aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale during winter.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Communication: President Zelensky is framing the current period as a "partner decision" window (1211Z), emphasizing that the scale of RF aggression (800+ KABs/week) necessitates immediate Western air defense and infrastructure support.
Logistical Constraints: Verified fundraising for SSO logistical assets (heavy-duty evacuators) indicates a persistent shortage of specialized recovery vehicles within elite units. (1214Z).
Defensive Posture: UA Air Defense remains highly active in the Eastern and Southern sectors, managing simultaneous threats in Sumy, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Narrative: Shifting from "readiness for talks" to "soft capitulation is off the table." This is a coercive tactic to force Ukrainian concessions before Jan 1.
UA Narrative: Focusing on the humanitarian impact of the "Energy Terror" campaign to secure long-term military aid packages.
Hybrid Elements: RF continues to use "military correspondents" to debut new weapons (Tornado-S) for psychological effect (1221Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-tempo KAB and UAV strikes on Sumy and Dnipro over the next 12 hours to pin UAF reserves and degrade regional energy stability. Efforts to repair the Crimean rail link will be prioritized with maximum security.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the "Tornado-S" precision capability to strike the ZNPP repair crews or the newly restored high-voltage lines, blaming UAF and ending the localized ceasefire while plunging the region back into a blackout.
Operational picture (by sector)
Crimea/Southern GLOC:CRITICAL. Rail disruption between RF and Crimea (1208Z). This will likely force a shift to the "Land Bridge" (M14 highway), increasing congestion and vulnerability to UAF strikes.
Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole:HIGH THREAT. RF utilizing Tornado-S precision strikes. UAVs currently inbound from the south (1210Z).
Dnipropetrovsk:ACTIVE THREAT. UAVs heading for Dnipro from the east (1219Z).
