STRATEGIC STRIKE (REFINERY): UAF General Staff and SBU confirmed a successful long-range UAV strike on the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast) and other industrial targets. Visual evidence shows significant fires. (1106Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA REINFORCEMENTS: RF forces are redeploying reserves from Verbove toward the Huliaipole axis, signaling an attempt to sustain the offensive momentum despite heavy losses. (1134Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM).
UNCONFIRMED CEASEFIRE (ZNPP): Reports suggest an IAEA-brokered "truce" regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been reached. (1132Z, Tsaplienko, LOW).
TACTICAL SUCCESS (POKROVSK): The 3rd NGU "Spartan" Brigade reports significant RF attrition, including the capture of personnel via FPV drones and the liquidation of high-value targets. (1122Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH).
CHEMICAL WARFARE IO: Pro-RF sources are circulating claims that UAF drones are coated with toxic chemicals causing "chemical poisoning" to soldiers who touch them. (1108Z, Два майора, LOW - Likely Disinformation).
INFRASTRUCTURE STRAIN: Severe weather has caused partial blackouts across all districts of the Rivne region, compounding existing energy deficits. (1115Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is currently defined by two primary operational efforts: the RF's attempt to isolate Huliaipole by pulling reserves from the Verbove sector and the UAF's continued "deep battle" campaign against RF energy logistics. Environmental factors (severe weather in Western Ukraine/Rivne) are beginning to degrade domestic power distribution, while in the east, the 3rd NGU "Spartan" Brigade has emerged as a critical defensive anchor in the Pokrovsk sector, utilizing high-density drone operations to offset RF localized manpower advantages.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Force Maneuver: The movement of reserves from Verbove to Huliaipole (1134Z) indicates the RF Vostok Group is prioritizing the capture of the Huliaipole hinge over maintaining offensive pressure in the Robotyne salient.
Tactical Adaptations: RF Vostok Group is reportedly utilizing precision artillery to target UAF UAV command posts and antennas (1133Z, MoD Russia), indicating a focused effort to "blind" Ukrainian tactical reconnaissance.
Logistics: The strike on the Syzran NPZ (1106Z) targets the "rear of the rear," intended to create mid-to-long-term fuel shortages for RF forces operating in the Donbas.
Foreign Elements: Presence of non-traditional mercenaries (reported "dark-skinned mercenary" KIA in Pokrovsk, 1507Z 18 Dec) continues to suggest RF reliance on international recruitment to fill front-line gaps.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
3rd NGU "Spartan" Brigade: Currently operating with high combat effectiveness in the Pokrovsk direction. They have successfully integrated FPV drones into surrender procedures ("Ivan" captured by drone, 1122Z) and have been recognized as a "Top 20" drone unit.
Defensive Posture: UAF forces in Huliaipole are successfully conducting counter-infiltration operations, with geolocated footage showing the liquidation of RF infantry on the approaches to the city (1128Z).
Air Defense: Continued vigilance in the Kherson/Beryslav sector against RF reconnaissance UAVs (1114Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Disinformation Vector: RF channels are attempting to frame UAF drone tactics as "unconventional" or "chemical" (1108Z). This may be a "false flag" precursor or an attempt to justify future RF use of riot control agents or toxic chemicals.
Strategic Narrative: RF leadership (Lavrov/Putin) has publicly "retired" previous peace proposals (1123Z), signaling a pivot toward a total war/unconditional surrender narrative intended to pressure Western backers.
Diplomatic IO: Claims of a ZNPP ceasefire (1132Z) are currently unconfirmed by official government channels and should be treated as a potential RF maneuver to freeze UAF movement in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a multi-regiment assault on Huliaipole within 24-48 hours using the newly arrived reserves from Verbove, supported by heavy artillery suppression of UAF drone nodes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A combined RF push from Rodinskoye (claimed capture) and a successful breakthrough at Huliaipole, threatening the encirclement of the southern Donetsk grouping and the logistical hub of Pokrovsk.
Energy Outlook: If weather-induced outages in Rivne (1115Z) persist, the grid may face a "stability crisis," potentially requiring UAF to divert engineering and AD assets to protect western infrastructure.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad:HIGH INTENSITY. 3rd NGU "Spartan" active. High RF attrition reported.
Huliaipole:CRITICAL. RF reserves moving from Verbove. Heavy fighting on city approaches.
Beryslav (Kherson):ACTIVE MONITORING. High RF reconnaissance UAV activity; AD systems on standby.
Rear (RF):DEGRADED. Syzran refinery on fire; structural damage to distillation units expected.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/UAV: RF reconnaissance UAVs (north of Beryslav) are likely designating targets for KAB strikes or Iskander-M batteries. (HIGH)
Chemical Pretext: Monitor RF units for the issuance of advanced PPE/gas masks, which would corroborate the "poisoned drone" disinformation as a pretext for RF chemical use. (MEDIUM)
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Strike: Long-range UAVs hit Syzran NPZ; damage assessment ongoing.
Tactical Defense: NGU "Spartan" and other units maintaining the FEBA in the Pokrovsk sector despite RF pressure.
DISINFORMATION: Claims of "chemical drones" (Dva Mayora).
PROPAGANDA: RF claims that US-European alliance is dissolving (TASS via El Pais).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Continued RF attempts to saturate Huliaipole with infantry supported by the Verbove reserves.
Potential UAF follow-up strikes on RF fuel depots in the occupied territories following the Syzran success.
Weather-related logistical delays in the Western/Northern sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Verbove Reserve Identity: Identify the specific units (regimental/brigade level) being moved from Verbove to Huliaipole to assess their combat readiness.
ZNPP Status: Immediate verification of IAEA/Government of Ukraine statements regarding the rumored ceasefire at the nuclear plant.
Syzran BDA: Satellite imagery required to confirm the number of distillation towers affected to estimate the timeline for refinery restoration.
