STRATEGIC STRIKE (REFINERY): UAF successfully targeted and hit the Syzran Oil Refinery (Samara Oblast) and several other RF facilities in a deep-strike drone operation. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 1102Z, HIGH).
HIGH-VALUE TARGET (GRU): UAF Special Operations (SBS) conducted a precision strike on the command post and deployment areas of the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade (14th OBrSpP, GRU) in Berdyanske, Donetsk region; reports indicate over 120 personnel killed or wounded. (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1036Z; ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 1036Z, HIGH).
CONTESTED CLAIM (RODINSKOYE): RF Ministry of Defense claims the "liberation" of Rodinskoye, northwest of Pokrovsk. (MoD Russia, 1055Z, MEDIUM).
HULIAIPOLE STABILITY: Despite RF claims of control, the UAF Spokesperson for Southern Defense Forces confirms the situation is "very difficult" but denies RF occupies the city. (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1059Z, HIGH).
RF DIPLOMATIC HARDENING: Foreign Minister Lavrov and Putin indicated that previous "soft" peace proposals are no longer valid, signaling a shift toward more aggressive political demands. (Старше Эдды, 1057Z, MEDIUM).
BLACK SEA ISR: Increased activity of Turkish Bayraktar Akıncı UAVs noted in the Black Sea following unauthorized drone incidents. (Два майора, 1036Z, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains extremely high across the Eastern and Southern fronts. RF forces are attempting to capitalize on tactical gains near Pokrovsk by claiming control over Rodinskoye, which would threaten the northern flank of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad defense. Simultaneously, UAF is successfully executing its "deep battle" concept, striking critical energy infrastructure (Syzran) and high-value C2/Special Forces nodes (14th OBrSpP) to degrade RF logistical and operational leadership capabilities.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Special Operations Degradation: The strike on the 14th OBrSpP (GRU) in Berdyanske is a significant blow to RF elite reconnaissance and sabotage capabilities in the Donetsk sector. The loss of up to 120 specialized personnel will likely disrupt near-term RF infiltration operations.
Offensive Focus: The claim of Rodinskoye's capture (1055Z) suggests RF is attempting to bypass the main urban defenses of Myrnohrad by pushing further west to isolate the agglomeration.
Aviation Activity: RF aviation is increasingly active in the Dnipropetrovsk (Starokasyanivske) and Zaporizhzhia (Zaliznychne) directions (1050Z), likely attempting to suppress UAF reserves moving toward the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole axes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Multi-Domain Reach: UAF's ability to simultaneously conduct intense defensive urban combat (Pokrovsk/Huliaipole) and long-range strategic strikes (Syzran) demonstrates effective resource management and persistence of strike assets.
Defensive Posture: UAF General Staff reports successful repelling of assaults in the Kursk/Sumy sector (1050Z) and continued active defense in the Kupyansk (Petropavlivka/Pischane) and Lyman sectors.
Zaporizhzhia Resilience: The denial of Huliaipole's fall by UAF Southern Command counters RF propaganda and indicates that the 57th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (RF) has not yet achieved its primary objective despite intense pressure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda Echoes: RF channels (Colonelcassad, 1032Z) are recycling claims about the "liberation of Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) in November," likely to mask current slow progress or frame the ongoing meat-grinder as a concluded success.
Administrative Control: The introduction of new ID markers (ID ERN) in Russian passports (1036Z) indicates a continuing trend toward total digital surveillance and mobilization tracking within the RF.
Diplomatic Signal: Lavrov’s comments (1057Z) suggest the Kremlin is pivoting toward a narrative of "unconditional surrender," likely aimed at testing Western resolve during current diplomatic transitions.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Rodinskoye to establish fire control over the northwestern exits of Myrnohrad. Heavy clashes will continue in the Huliaipole sector as RF attempts to validate its propaganda claims with physical occupation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A rapid mechanized breakthrough from Rodinskoye toward the T0504 highway, coinciding with a collapse of the Huliaipole-Zaporizhzhia hinge, which would threaten the entire southern Donetsk logistical network.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad: CRITICAL. Clashes reported across multiple settlements (Chervonyy Lyman, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk). RF claim of Rodinskoye capture requires urgent verification.
Huliaipole: HIGH INTENSITY. Contested. RF 57th GMRB is active; UAF maintaining presence despite "difficult" conditions.
Kupyansk-Lyman: ACTIVE DEFENSE. Clashes near Petropavlivka and Serednye. No significant change in the FEBA reported by GS ZSU.
Strategic Rear (RF): Syzran Refinery hit; expect localized fuel supply disruptions for RF units in the central-western military districts if damage is structural.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Airstrike Threat: (HIGH) Increased aviation activity in Dnipropetrovsk region (1050Z) suggests RF is targeting UAF logistical depth.
Elite Unit Attrition: Significant losses to 14th OBrSpP may force RF to rely on less experienced regular motor rifle units for reconnaissance-in-force.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Precision Strike (Deep): Successful long-range drone operation against Syzran refinery.
SOF/SBS: High-impact strike on GRU assets in Donetsk region.
Information environment / disinformation
UNCONFIRMED CLAIM: RF claim of Rodinskoye capture (MoD Russia).
FALSE NARRATIVE: RF claim of total Huliaipole control (Countered by UAF Southern Command).
ADMINISTRATIVE: Russia tightening domestic control via passport registries.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued heavy shelling and "meat assaults" in the Rodinskoye-Myrnohrad corridor.
Potential RF retaliatory strikes on UAF energy infrastructure following the Syzran refinery attack.
Monitoring for visual confirmation of the frontline in Huliaipole city limits.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Rodinskoye BDA: Need visual/geolocated confirmation of RF presence in central Rodinskoye to assess the threat to Pokrovsk's northern flank.
Syzran Damage Assessment: Determine the specific refinery units hit (distillation vs. storage) to estimate the impact on RF military fuel logistics.
14th OBrSpP C2: Monitor RF communications for signs of C2 breakdown in the Berdyanske sector following the strike on the GRU command post.
