UAF PRECISION STRIKE: The "Birds of Magyar" (UAF Special Operations) successfully targeted and struck RF GRU special operations personnel; location likely in the Eastern sector. (РБК-Україна, 1019Z, HIGH).
POKROVSK-MYRNOHRAD ESCALATION: RF forces are transitioning from reconnaissance to heavy artillery fire (BM-21 Grad) against the Myrnohrad (Dimitrov) area of the Pokrovsk agglomeration. (WarGonzo, 1031Z, MEDIUM).
AERIAL INTERCEPTION INNOVATION: UAF confirmed a successful kinetic interception of an RF "Shahed" OWA-UAV using a maneuverable FPV interceptor drone. (STERNENKO, 1012Z, HIGH).
KYIV UTILITY RECOVERY: Regional authorities report that district heating in Kyiv and the surrounding oblast will be 100% restored by the end of the day following recent infrastructure strikes. (Оперативний ЗСУ, 1027Z, HIGH).
RIVERINE OPERATIONS: RF forces claim to have disrupted UAF attempts to establish or reinforce water crossings in the Krasnolymansk direction using FPV drone strikes. (Дневник Десантника, 1006Z, MEDIUM).
HIGH-PROFILE CASUALTY: RF sources claim the death of a prominent "Azov" veteran (Anton Mohuchyi) during fighting in the Kupyansk sector. (Colonelcassad, 1020Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
STRATEGIC SURVEILLANCE: Increased Turkish Air Force (TAF) aerial reconnaissance activity noted over the Black Sea, likely monitoring drone and maritime corridors. (Рыбарь, 1025Z, MEDIUM).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by an RF shift toward heavy-volume fires in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector, signaling an attempt to breach the urban industrial defenses held by UAF. In the rear, the restoration of heating in Kyiv indicates a successful mitigation of the RF strategic bombing campaign's immediate effects. However, the presence of RF reconnaissance UAVs in Eastern Kharkiv (1011Z) suggests active targeting for follow-on strikes or mechanized pushes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: RF is increasingly utilizing specialized GRU units for infiltration or high-value targeting, though the successful UAF strike on these elements (1019Z) demonstrates effective UAF counter-reconnaissance. The use of "Grad" MLRS in the Pokrovsk sector indicates a return to attrition-based area bombardment to suppress UAF defensive positions.
Intentions: Messaging from RF sources (Colonelcassad, WarGonzo) regarding the "liberation of the Krasnoarmeysk-Dimitrov agglomeration" indicates that RF Command now views Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad as a single combined objective, likely prioritizing the seizure of the Myrnohrad heights to overwatch Pokrovsk.
Logistics: The disruption of UAF crossings in Krasnolymansk suggests RF is prioritizing the isolation of UAF bridgeheads to prevent the rotation of fresh reserves into the Lyman-Siversk axis.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: UAF continues to leverage technical superiority in the drone domain, specifically the deployment of "Shahed-hunter" FPV drones, which provides a cost-effective alternative to expensive AD missiles.
Special Operations: The "Birds of Magyar" (SBS) and other elite drone units remain the primary force multiplier, effectively targeting RF C2 and special-purpose assets behind the immediate FEBA.
Infrastructure Resilience: Rapid repair of the Kyiv heating grid demonstrates high civil-military synchronization in disaster response.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Narrative: RF channels are aggressively framing Ukrainian rural mobilization as the installation of "village police" (Kotsnews, 1009Z), attempting to incite domestic resistance to the new TCC legislation.
Geopolitical Friction: Reported rifts between French (Macron) and German (Merz) leadership regarding Russia policy, combined with uncertainty over future US-UA diplomatic alignment (Zelensky-Trump meeting), are being amplified by RF state media to project an image of waning Western unity.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify MLRS and heavy artillery strikes on Myrnohrad over the next 12 hours to soften defenses before a renewed infantry assault. Concurrently, RF reconnaissance UAVs in Kharkiv will likely direct "Iskander" or "Geran" strikes against localized logistics hubs.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough in the Myrnohrad sector that allows RF forces to establish fire control over the T0504 highway, effectively cutting off the primary logistical artery into Pokrovsk from the west.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad: Heavy combat. RF has increased the use of "Grad" MLRS. UAF holds the northern industrial sectors.
Kupyansk: High-intensity urban/suburban fighting. Presence of veteran units on both sides suggests this remains a prestige objective for RF.
Krasnolymansk: Focus on riverine denial. RF active in preventing UAF logistical consolidation across water obstacles.
GRU Special Ops: High threat of localized sabotage or deep reconnaissance; however, UAF strike on these units may have temporarily degraded local RF special-tasking capabilities.
UAV Recon: (HIGH) Activity in Eastern Kharkiv indicates imminent fire missions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Drone Interception: Expansion of FPV-based air defense is highly effective.
Counter-Battery/Spec Ops: Success against GRU personnel highlights the efficacy of the "sensor-to-shooter" link in the SBS.
Information environment / disinformation
Assessment: RF is weaponizing the Zelensky-Trump diplomatic schedule to create a sense of impending "territorial sacrifice" (Reuters framing via pro-RF channels).
Recommendation: UAF/State messaging should emphasize tactical successes (like the GRU strike) to maintain domestic morale during diplomatic uncertainty.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Continued heavy shelling of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.
Potential for a major air alert in Eastern Ukraine based on current RF reconnaissance UAV flight patterns.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad FEBA: Need precise confirmation of RF infantry penetration depth following "Grad" strikes.
Kupyansk Control: Verify the extent of RF gains in the urban center to confirm/deny "Azov" casualty reports.
Black Sea ISR: Monitor Turkish Air Force findings regarding new RF maritime or aerial drone launch sites.
