ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE: RF forces conducted a targeted strike on an energy facility in the Poltava region; equipment damage confirmed. (RBK-Ukraine, 0939Z, HIGH).
POKROVSK SECTOR VERIFICATION: UAF 7th Corps (DShV) confirms friendly forces maintain control over the northern part of Pokrovsk, countering RF claims of a total breakthrough into the city proper. (Tsaplienko, 0953Z, MEDIUM).
RUMORED UAF COUNTER-OFFENSIVE: RF sources claim UAF National Guard (NGU) command is preparing a counter-offensive in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction; DNR units claim to have already repelled a preliminary attempt. (Operatsiya Z, 0955Z; NM DNR, 0959Z, LOW).
NEW RF CAPABILITY DEPLOYMENT: RF has deployed the "Omich" NRTK (Ground Robotic Complex) specifically configured for water crossing operations. (Colonelcassad, 1002Z, MEDIUM).
MOBILIZATION REFORM: A new Ukrainian legislative bill proposes opening Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC) in rural villages to increase mobilization throughput. (Tsaplienko, 0951Z, HIGH).
GEOPOLITICAL ALIGNMENT: Russian MFA (Lavrov) officially pledged support for China in the event of escalation regarding Taiwan, signaling deepening Moscow-Beijing military-political synchronization. (Operativniy ZSU, 0941Z, HIGH).
REAR SECURITY: FSB reports the detention of three alleged UAF "saboteurs" in the occupied DNR attempting to exfiltrate as refugees. (Colonelcassad, 0940Z, UNCONFIRMED).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high across two primary axes: the Pokrovsk salient and the Zaporizhzhia front. The battlefield geometry is increasingly defined by RF's attempt to isolate Pokrovsk and UAF's efforts to hold northern urban anchors. A new strike in Poltava indicates RF is widening its energy-infrastructure target set beyond Kyiv and the western regions to include central logistical hubs.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Tactics: The introduction of the "Omich" robotic system suggests RF is preparing for mechanized water crossings, likely targeting the Oskil River (Kupyansk sector) or the irrigation canals/tributaries near Zaporizhzhia. This aligns with recent gains near Stepnohirsk.
Course of Action: RF is utilizing a "narrative pre-emption" tactic, claiming UAF counter-attacks in Pokrovsk are failing before they are fully confirmed, likely to mask their own high attrition rates in the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk gap.
Logistics/Sustainment: Continued focus on energy nodes (Poltava) aims to degrade the rail-based logistics supporting the Donbas front.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: The 7th Corps DShV is acting as the primary defensive stabilizer in Northern Pokrovsk. While RF has made gains in the Myrnohrad suburbs (per previous report), the core urban defenses of Pokrovsk remain under UAF control.
Mobilization: The proposal to move TCCs into villages suggests a strategic shift to tap into remaining manpower reserves in rural areas, potentially addressing the attrition reported in the Southern Defense Forces.
Tactical Success: The 4th Brigade "Rubizh" (NGU) continues effective localized drone operations against RF infantry infiltrators, maintaining "sensor-to-shooter" dominance in contested tree lines (Butusov Plus, 0952Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Viral Hoax: A widespread death hoax concerning French actress Brigitte Bardot (reported by TASS, RBK-Ukraine, and others) saturated both RF and UA channels between 0945Z and 0955Z. This indicates a high susceptibility to unverified viral content in current communication hubs, which could be exploited for more critical tactical deception.
Propaganda: RF sources are framing the arrest of "saboteurs" in the DNR to justify tightened movement controls on civilians (refugees) in occupied territories.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify "reconnaissance-by-fire" in the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk, utilizing the "Center" group to test the 7th Corps' seams while simultaneously attempting a water crossing using "Omich" units in a secondary sector to force UAF to pivot reserves.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RF combined-arms assault on the Poltava rail hub, following up on the energy strike, to physically sever the main Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) between Kyiv and the Eastern Front.
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad: The front has stabilized into high-intensity urban combat. UAF holds the northern industrial zones; RF holds the southern/eastern residential outskirts of the agglomeration.
Poltava (Rear): Currently a focus of RF strategic aviation/UAV targeting. Threat to regional energy grid remains HIGH.
Zaporizhzhia: Air alerts have ceased (0936Z), but the front remains volatile following the reported RF capture of Stepnohirsk.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Robotic Integration: Watch for the first combat employment of "Omich" NRTKs. Their use indicates RF intention to reduce personnel losses during high-risk riverine/canal crossings.
Sabotage/Subversion: Increased FSB activity in the DNR suggests a crackdown on UAF partisan networks following the loss of key terrain.
Friendly activity (UAF)
DShV Reinforcement: 7th Corps' presence in Pokrovsk indicates the commitment of elite reserves to prevent a systemic collapse of the Donetsk front.
Rural Recruitment: Legislative movement indicates preparation for a long-duration war of attrition requiring sustained manpower flow.
Information environment / disinformation
Assessment: The Bardot hoax demonstrates that even reputable outlets (TASS, RBK) are currently prioritizing speed over verification.
Counter-Narrative: UAF should emphasize the continued control of Northern Pokrovsk to counter RF "total capture" claims.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of continued missile/UAV strikes on Poltava and central UA infrastructure.
Potential localized UAF counter-attacks in the Pokrovsk sector to regain high ground lost near Myrnohrad.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Omich Location: Priority GEOLOC on any "Omich" NRTK deployment to identify the specific water crossing target (Oskil vs. Dnipro).
Poltava Damage: Need BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on the Poltava energy facility to determine impact on rail logistics.
Pokrovsk FEBA: Confirm the exact line of contact in the northern industrial district.
