SOUTHERN FRONT EXPANSION: RF Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims the capture of Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia region) by Group "Dnepr" units. (TASS, 0909Z, MEDIUM).
POKROVSK SECTOR BREAKTHROUGH: RF Group "Center" reports the capture of Dymytrov (Myrnohrad), Rodynske, Artemivka, and Vilne. This indicates a significant breach of the defensive agglomeration east of Pokrovsk. (TASS, 0908Z, MEDIUM).
HULIAIPOLE OFFICIAL CAPTURE: RF MoD has officially declared the "liberation" of Huliaipole complete. (TASS, 0909Z, HIGH).
KUPYANSK COUNTER-ATTACKS: UAF launched two attacks near Podoly and Nechvolodivka to disrupt RF advances into Kupyansk; RF MoD claims these were repelled. (TASS, 0917Z, MEDIUM).
KYIV GRID INSTABILITY: New power disruptions reported on Kyiv’s Left Bank, specifically impacting electric public transport. (RBK-Ukraine, 0909Z, HIGH).
WESTERN UKRAINE WEATHER IMPACT: Severe weather in Prykarpattia has de-energized 41 settlements (15 fully, 26 partially). (RBK-Ukraine, 0929Z, HIGH).
RF COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE: Reports of a major technical malfunction in the Russian domestic messaging app "MAX," potentially impacting non-tactical C2 or internal security coordination. (Kotsnews, 0924Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The operational depth of the RF advance is increasing. The capture of Stepnohirsk—if confirmed—places RF forces within direct striking distance of the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city. Units of the 7th Air Assault Division (VDV) are confirmed active in this sector (Colonelcassad, 0907Z).
Donetsk (Pokrovsk) Sector: The reported loss of Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Rodynske is a critical development. Dymytrov served as a primary defensive anchor for Pokrovsk. The loss of these settlements suggests UAF has been forced into a retrograde movement toward the main Pokrovsk-Krasnoarmiysk defensive line.
Kupyansk Sector: The sector remains highly volatile. The involvement of the Chechen "Aid" unit (Alex Parker Returns, 0915Z) indicates RF is utilizing specialized assault groups for urban or semi-urban clearing. UAF is actively contesting the Podoly-Nechvolodivka axis to prevent a complete encirclement.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Axis Pressure: RF is successfully synchronizing high-intensity ground assaults in the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors simultaneously, straining UAF's ability to shift reserves.
Strategic Air Campaign: RF MoD claims continued strikes on energy infrastructure supporting the Ukrainian VPK (Defense Industrial Complex). The impact is visible in Kyiv's transit disruptions.
Drone Saturation: RF claims to have intercepted 370 UAF drones in 24 hours, suggesting a high-intensity UAF attempt to disrupt RF rear logistics or counter-offensive assembly areas.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Southern Defensive Attrition: UAF Southern Defense Forces report the elimination of 438 RF personnel and 70+ vehicles in the last 24 hours, alongside 16 UAV control antennas. This indicates a focus on "blinding" RF tactical reconnaissance (Sili oboroni Pivdnya, 0933Z).
Command Recognition: Colonel Gennadiy Kutsoi (18th Slovyansk Brigade, NGU) has been awarded "Hero of Ukraine," likely signifying successful holding actions or high-value tactical achievements in the Donetsk/Slovyansk direction.
Information environment / disinformation
"Burial" Counter-Narrative: Pro-Ukrainian channels are circulating footage of mass RF military burials in the Kemerovo region to emphasize the high cost of RF's recent gains (Butusov Plus, 0907Z).
Negotiation Framing: RF messaging is framing current military successes as a justification for "halting peace negotiations," aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian domestic audience and Western partners (RBK-Ukraine, 0921Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will attempt to consolidate the Dymytrov-Rodynske line and initiate direct reconnaissance-in-force toward Pokrovsk city limits.
MDCOA: A rapid mechanized breakthrough from Stepnohirsk toward the Zaporizhzhia city industrial zone, exploiting potential UAF confusion following the loss of Huliaipole.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Stepnohirsk Confirmation: Visual/GEOLOC confirmation of RF presence in Stepnohirsk city center.
Pokrovsk FEBA: Determine the current status of UAF 2nd and 3rd defensive lines west of Dymytrov.
"MAX" App Disruption: Assess if the glitch in the "MAX" application has impacted RF military logistics or civilian volunteer coordination (Slivochny Kapriz).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry has shifted significantly in the last 3 hours. The collapse of the Dymytrov anchor in the Donetsk sector and the loss of Stepnohirsk in the South represent a double-axis crisis. Environmental factors (snow in the East, severe storms in the West) are beginning to degrade both logistical throughput and the effectiveness of thermal-based ISR.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intentions: RF is pursuing a "collapse of the flanks" strategy, hitting Zaporizhzhia and Pokrovsk simultaneously to prevent UAF from concentrating its remaining high-readiness brigades.
Adaptation: The use of Group "Center" for rapid urban seizures (Dymytrov/Rodynske) indicates improved coordination between mechanized infantry and UAV-based fire correction.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is in a "heavy retrograde" in the Pokrovsk sector. The 18th Slovyansk Brigade remains a core unit of stability, but the overall force is facing extreme attrition in the South (438 RF KIA suggests extremely high-intensity close-quarters combat).
Resource Constraints: Electrical outages on Kyiv's Left Bank and in Prykarpattia will complicate the movement of personnel and supplies via rail/electric transit.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF IO is currently "victory-dominant," utilizing official MoD channels to confirm gains rapidly (Stepnohirsk, Huliaipole, Dymytrov). UAF IO is focused on the human cost of these RF gains (Kemerovo burials) to maintain domestic resolve.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will use the next 12 hours to bring up tube artillery into the Dymytrov-Rodynske pocket to begin the preliminary bombardment of Pokrovsk.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces in Stepnohirsk bypass the main road and move along the reservoir bank to seize the Zaporizhzhia bridgeheads, threatening the entire Dnipro-bank defense.
