HULIAIPOLE SECTOR DEGRADATION: RF sources have released combat footage showing the 305th Artillery Brigade and "Vostok" Group units clearing Huliaipole with Lancet and FPV drones. (Воин DV, 0900Z, HIGH).
KUPYANSK REINFORCEMENTS: UAF has reportedly committed "elite and motivated" units to the Kupyansk sector to stabilize the front against RF pressure. (Alex Parker Returns, 0858Z, MEDIUM).
ENERGY GRID DAMAGE: Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy confirms "significant damage" to energy infrastructure in multiple regions following overnight strikes. (Оперативний ЗСУ, 0852Z, HIGH).
AIR RESTORATION (KYIV): DTEK has successfully restored power to 347,000 households in the Kyiv region following recent mass attacks. (РБК-Україна, 0852Z, HIGH).
ODESA UAV THREAT: New wave of Shahed-type UAVs launched from the Black Sea toward Odesa (Chornomorske/Pivdenne axis). (Air Force UA, 0855Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA KAB STRIKES: RF tactical aviation has initiated guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes on the Zaporizhzhia region. (Air Force UA, 0854Z, HIGH).
DONETSK WEATHER IMPACT: Heavy snowfall is now obstructing GLOCs in the Donetsk region, with reports of un-cleared roads causing vehicle accidents and slowing military movements. (Mash на Донбассе, 0848Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The capture of Huliaipole is being characterized by RF sources as the "collapse of the front," with the axis of advance now potentially opening toward Zaporizhzhia city. RF "Vostok" Group is utilizing integrated artillery and UAV strikes to suppress remaining UAF pockets (Воин DV, 0900Z).
Kupyansk Sector: Fighting has intensified as UAF commits high-readiness reserves. RF sources acknowledge the quality of these units ("elite and motivated"), indicating a high-attrition environment where RF may struggle to maintain momentum without their own reinforcements (Alex Parker Returns, 0858Z).
Kherson Sector (Dnipro Delta): RF 18th Combined Arms Army is pioneering "unmanned logistics," using UAVs to deliver food, ammunition, and medicine to units on the islands to bypass UAF fire control over the water (MoD Russia, 0901Z).
Donetsk Sector: Operations are hampered by "double drifting" (snow and unmanaged roads). Logistics for both sides are likely restricted to tracked vehicles or main arterial roads where clearing is active (Mash на Донбассе, 0848Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Innovation: The use of UAVs for "last-mile" logistics in the Kherson delta (MoD Russia, 0901Z) represents a significant adaptation to UAF's superior drone-based interdiction of river crossings.
Air Campaign: Transition from "Shahed" saturation to tactical KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia region suggests RF is moving from strategic infrastructure targeting to tactical CAS (Close Air Support) to exploit the Huliaipole breach.
Adaptation: RF sources are calling for the deployment of "Aida" and "Akhmat" units to Kupyansk to counter the UAF elite reinforcements, suggesting RF intelligence is tracking UAF reserve deployments in real-time.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Reserve Maneuver: Deployment of elite units to Kupyansk indicates a "firefighting" approach to stabilize critical front-line segments.
Personnel Sustainability: Internal reporting (NYT via Sternenko, 0901Z) highlights extreme personnel fatigue (e.g., Sgt. Tyshchenko, 472 days on position), identifying rotation shortages as a critical strategic vulnerability.
Infrastructure Recovery: Rapid restoration of 347k subscribers in Kyiv demonstrates high resilience in repair capabilities, though the Ministry of Energy's "significant damage" warning suggests systemic fragility.
Information environment / disinformation
C2 Ridicule: RF channels (Colonelcassad, 0858Z) are actively mocking UAF General Staff for allegedly reporting that Huliaipole is still held. This is designed to create a "truth gap" between official UAF statements and ground reality.
Strategic Pessimism: RF propaganda is framing the Huliaipole loss as a decisive "turning point" to influence Western perception ahead of diplomatic engagements (Alex Parker Returns, 0854Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will maintain KAB pressure on Zaporizhzhia to prevent UAF from establishing a new defensive line north of Huliaipole.
MDCOA: A mechanized RF push from Huliaipole toward the T0803/T0401 junction before UAF elite reinforcements from the north can be redeployed, exacerbated by the snowstorm slowing UAF maneuver.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole Perimeter: Confirmation of the exact FEBA north of Huliaipole. Has the RF Vostok group transitioned to mobile pursuit?
Kupyansk Disposition: Identify the specific "elite" UAF units committed to Kupyansk to assess their origin (e.g., were they pulled from the Pokrovsk reserve?).
Logistics Vulnerability: Assessment of RF "unmanned logistics" in Kherson. Can UAF EW/Signal Intelligence intercept these supply drones?
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The collapse of the Huliaipole anchor has transitioned the Zaporizhzhia sector into a fluid maneuver environment. The simultaneous snowstorm in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk creates a "friction-heavy" environment where tactical success depends on drone-based logistics and winter-capable mobility.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RF is demonstrating a high degree of "sensor-to-shooter" integration in Huliaipole (305th Bde).
Logistics: The deployment of UAV-based supply chains in Kherson (MoD Russia, 0901Z) suggests RF is insulating its logistics from traditional artillery interdiction.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Readiness: The NYT report on Sgt. Tyshchenko (472 days) confirms that UAF's greatest constraint is no longer just equipment, but "human capital exhaustion."
Successes: The restoration of the Kyiv grid (347k homes) mitigates the risk of immediate civil collapse in the capital.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF IO is currently synchronized with kinetic gains. The narrative of "front-line collapse" at Huliaipole is being pushed aggressively to demoralize UAF troops and create political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership during the 1600Z diplomatic window.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action: RF will use the next 6-12 hours to consolidate Huliaipole and conduct deep reconnaissance toward the T0401 highway, using KAB strikes to mask their movement.
Critical Decision Point: UAF must decide whether to continue holding Kupyansk with elite reserves or redeploy those assets to prevent a breakthrough toward Zaporizhzhia city.
