SOUTHERN SECTOR COLLAPSE (HULIAIPOLE): Russian Federation (RF) forces have confirmed full control of Huliaipole. Visual evidence shows RF soldiers at the city entrance stele. (Colonelcassad, 0822Z, HIGH).
CRIMEA DEEP STRIKES: Ukrainian drones conducted successful night-time strikes against multiple RF military infrastructure targets in occupied Crimea, specifically in the Chornomorske region. (Tsaplienko, 0833Z; OperativnoZSU, 0830Z, HIGH).
F-16 AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT: Confirmed combat use of Ukrainian F-16s; a "Shahed" UAV was intercepted using an AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missile. (Бутусов Плюс, 0822Z, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA URBAN COMBAT: Heavy fighting reported in Stepnohirsk as RF forces attempt to clear Ukrainian defenders from high-rise buildings. (Colonelcassad, 0833Z, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC DISINFORMATION: Russian state media is circulating claims that President Zelenskyy may offer "major concessions," including the withdrawal of UAF from the Donetsk region (DNR), ahead of the Trump meeting. (ТАСС, 0828Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT: A major snowstorm in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has necessitated the deployment of 100+ specialized vehicles to clear key GLOCs; sub-zero mobility is significantly hindered. (Дніпропетровська ОВА, 0808Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The situation has transitioned from a tactical threat to an operational crisis. The confirmed loss of Huliaipole allows the RF Vostok Group to pivot its axis of advance. Urban combat in Stepnohirsk indicates RF is pushing to flatten the front line south of Zaporizhzhia city.
Crimea/Black Sea: UAF has maintained offensive pressure on the RF rear. The strikes in Chornomorske suggest targeting of coastal defense or electronic warfare (EW) nodes.
Northern/Central Rear: Active UAV threats persist. Shaheds are currently transiting Sumy (toward Poltava/Hadyach) and eastern Dnipropetrovsk (toward Petropavlivka). (Air Force UA, 0809Z-0830Z).
Dnipropetrovsk/Rear: Logistics are hampered by a "khurtovyna" (snowstorm). While roads are being cleared, the rate of reinforcement movement to the Pokrovsk/Donetsk front is likely degraded.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ground Offensive: RF is exploiting recent command instability (noted in previous sitrep) to consolidate gains in the south. The transition to clearing high-rises in Stepnohirsk suggests a systematic urban siege approach.
Logistics: RF units (e.g., 110th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) continue to supplement official supply chains with crowdfunded tactical UAVs, maintaining "sensor-to-shooter" persistence despite high attrition. (Военкор Котенок, 0830Z).
Strategic IO: The Kremlin is intensifying its "concession" narrative to coincide with the rescheduled Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (1600Z), aiming to foster domestic Ukrainian distrust and Western hesitation.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Integration: The successful use of F-16s for UAV interception validates the integration of Western platforms into the national AD grid, providing a mobile counter to "Shahed" saturation.
Special Operations: 1st Center of Special Operations (SBS) continues to demonstrate high-tempo night-time strike capabilities, specifically targeting the Crimean logistics hub.
Infrastructure Resilience: DSNS and local OVAS are struggling with energy-related secondary hazards; a fatal carbon monoxide poisoning in Brovary highlights the persistent danger of decentralized power generation (generators) during the heating crisis.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Big Concession" Narrative: The TASS report (0828Z) citing "Strana" regarding UAF withdrawal from DNR is a classic active measure designed to preempt diplomatic talks and demoralize frontline troops.
Corruption Amplification: RF sources are re-circulating Le Monde reports on Ukrainian parliamentary corruption to synchronize with the "concession" narrative, framing Ukraine as a "failing partner" prior to the US meeting. (Дневник Десантника, 0828Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue Shahed saturation strikes across Sumy, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk to fix AD assets while pushing the Stepnohirsk-Huliaipole line to create "facts on the ground" before 1600Z.
MDCOA: A rapid mechanized exploitation from Huliaipole toward the T0401 highway, attempting to outflank UAF defenses in the southern Donetsk region while UAF mobility is slowed by the snowstorm.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Stepnohirsk FEBA: Immediate clarification on which high-rise sectors in Stepnohirsk are currently occupied by RF forces.
Crimean BDA: Request satellite or partisan confirmation of the "military objects" hit in Chornomorske to assess impact on RF Black Sea Fleet/Coastal capabilities.
Zelenskyy-Trump Meeting Posture: Monitor official UAF channels for counter-messaging to the "DNR withdrawal" rumor to maintain troop morale.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is under extreme strain from both kinetic pressure and environmental factors. The loss of Huliaipole is a significant blow to the southern anchor of the Ukrainian line. The Dnipropetrovsk snowstorm creates a tactical "pause" for heavy armor but favors RF infantry-led urban clearing in Stepnohirsk.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intent: Secure maximum territorial gains in the Zaporizhzhia sector to present a fait accompli to the incoming US administration.
Adaptation: Using small-unit infantry to clear high-rises in Stepnohirsk (Colonelcassad, 0833Z) avoids the high-visibility mechanized losses seen in previous weeks.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Capabilities: F-16s are now operational in an AD role, providing a high-probability kill capability against long-range UAVs.
Constraints: Mobility in the Dnipropetrovsk region is the primary constraint for the next 12 hours. Any reserves positioned in Dnipro will face delays reaching the Pokrovsk or Zaporizhzhia fronts.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeting: The focus of Russian IO has shifted from "energy terror" to "political instability," leveraging European media (Le Monde) and internal Ukrainian rumors (Strana) to create a pincer effect on the Zelenskyy administration's credibility.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action: RF will consolidate Huliaipole and use it as a logistics hub for a northern push, while maintaining high-frequency UAV probes into Poltava and Sumy to exhaust AD ammunition (AIM-9s/Patriot).
Critical Decision Point: UAF High Command must decide whether to commit the 7th Air Assault Corps (currently in Pokrovsk) to stabilize the Zaporizhzhia collapse or continue the "static defense" posture while trading space for time.
