DIPLOMATIC ACCELERATION: The bilateral meeting between President Zelenskyy and US President-elect Trump has been moved forward by two hours to 18:00 Kyiv time (16:00Z). (ЦАПЛІЄНКО, 0741Z, HIGH).
SLAVYANSK/SIVERSK SECTOR ADVANCE: RF forces claim to have captured approximately 50% of the settlement of Zakotne. This follows earlier reports of command instability in the Siversk salient. (Colonelcassad, 0800Z, MEDIUM).
AERIAL BOMBARDMENT SPIKE: RF tactical aviation has initiated fresh waves of KAB (guided bomb) strikes targeting both the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. (Air Force UA, 0759Z/0804Z, HIGH).
UGV NEUTRALIZATION: RF 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) reports the destruction of a Ukrainian ground robotic complex (UGV) near Torske using FPV drones. (NM DNR, 0800Z, MEDIUM).
CHEMICAL WEAPONS ALLEGATION: Pro-RF sources claim 810th Marine Brigade personnel required MEDEVAC due to "chemical agents" delivered by UAF drones. (Два майора, 0802Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
ODESA UAV THREAT: New "Shahed" UAVs have entered the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district from the Black Sea, maintaining the saturation pressure on southern air defenses. (Air Force UA, 0742Z, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk Sector: Intense combat continues. The UAF 7th Air Assault Corps remains the primary stabilizing force in the northern city limits, while the National Guard (NSU) continues to stage for the planned counter-assault (OperativnoZSU, 0735Z).
Slavyansk/Siversk Axis: The situation is deteriorating for UAF following the earlier relief of the 54th and 10th Brigade commanders. RF exploitation in Zakotne and Torske indicates a focused push to collapse the Siversk salient from the north and east (Colonelcassad, 0800Z).
Southern Sector (Volodymyrivka): The UAF 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully repelled a Russian mechanized/infantry assault using FPV drones. The frontline here appears stabilized despite RF pressure (Бутусов Плюс, 0743Z).
Odesa/Rear: Active air defense engagements continue. The shift of UAV entry points to the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district suggests an attempt to bypass established AD corridors around Odesa city.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: The use of KABs on both the Kharkiv and Donetsk axes simultaneously suggests RF is attempting to suppress UAF reserve movements and artillery positions ahead of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
Weaponized Narratives (Chemical): The allegation of chemical agent use (0802Z) is likely a reflexive disinformation tactic or a "false flag" precursor, intended to muddy the information environment during high-level diplomatic talks.
Technology Exploitation: The successful targeting of a UAF UGV near Torske demonstrates RF's increasing proficiency in "drone-on-drone" or "drone-on-robot" engagements.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: The 33rd Mechanized Brigade's success near Volodymyrivka highlights the continued efficacy of FPV-centric defense even in sub-zero winter conditions.
Strategic Reserves: 7th Air Assault Corps remains committed to Pokrovsk, indicating the High Command views this as the "center of gravity" for the current defensive cycle.
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Friction: RF-aligned and some Western outlets are amplifying the fact that UK PM Keir Starmer did not join recent EU-Zelenskyy talks, framing it as a sign of Western fragmentation (РБК-Україна, 0740Z).
Corruption Narratives: RF state media is weaponizing a Le Monde report regarding a corruption scandal involving Verkhovna Rada deputies to undermine Ukraine's domestic stability and international standing (ТАСС, 0759Z).
Energy Crisis: State-wide power outage schedules are being used in IO campaigns to degrade civilian morale as the sub-zero temperatures persist (РБК-Україна, 0756Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will maintain high-intensity KAB and UAV strikes to create a backdrop of "impending collapse" for the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. Expect continued local pressure in the Siversk/Slavyansk sector to exploit command turnover.
MDCOA: A breakthrough in the Siversk salient (Zakotne-Torske axis) that threatens the GLOCs to Slavyansk, forcing a rapid UAF retrograde under heavy aerial bombardment.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Chemical Allegation Verification: Immediate technical evaluation of any casualties in the 810th Marine Bde sector is required to debunk or confirm chemical usage.
Zakotne FEBA: Request geolocated imagery to confirm the extent of RF control in Zakotne.
Starmer Absence: Determine if the UK PM’s absence from the EU call was a logistical clash or a substantive policy divergence.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently characterized by High-Intensity Hybrid Friction. While the territorial shifts are localized (Zakotne, Torske), the timing coincides with a major diplomatic inflection point. The weather continues to favor static defense but increases the lethality of infrastructure strikes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intent: RF is attempting to maximize tactical gains in the next 8 hours to weaken the Ukrainian negotiating position at 16:00Z.
Capabilities: RF continues to demonstrate a "mass over precision" advantage in KAB strikes, while simultaneously deploying "precision-FPV" tactics against UAF robotic assets.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is in a "holding pattern" in the East (Pokrovsk) while facing a "tactical crisis" in the Siversk sector. The effectiveness of the 33rd Bde in the south shows that where C2 is stable, the defense holds.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted IO: The simultaneous release of corruption reports and chemical weapon allegations suggests a coordinated effort by RF intelligence services (GRU/SVR) to distract from the diplomatic summit.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: 0800Z-1600Z: Maximum kinetic pressure. 1600Z: Strategic focus shifts to the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. 1800Z+: Potential for "retaliatory" RF missile strikes if the meeting yields strong pro-Ukrainian statements.
