POKROVSK COUNTER-ASSAULT PREPARATIONS: National Guard of Ukraine (NSU) Commander Pivnenko reports UAF is accumulating units for counter-assault operations in the Pokrovsk sector to stabilize the "heavy" situation. (0728Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH).
POKROVSK NORTHERN SECTOR: UAF 7th Air Assault Corps confirms continued control over the northern part of Pokrovsk city. (0724Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
ODESA UAV ATTACK: Odesa is currently under a "Shahed" saturation attack; active air defense (AD) and kinetic engagements are reported within city limits. (0714Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
ROSTOV RAIL DISRUPTION (EXTENDED): The derailment at Kiziterinka is confirmed to have delayed over 20 long-distance and freight trains, significantly impacting the North Caucasus Railway's throughput. (0714Z, ТАСС, HIGH).
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY: The bilateral meeting between President Zelenskyy and US President-elect Trump has been moved forward to 20:00 Kyiv time today. (0708Z, STERNENKO, HIGH).
RF AVIATION SPIKE: UAF Air Force reports a sudden increase in Russian tactical aviation activity along the eastern frontline. (0718Z, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk Sector: The tactical situation has shifted from defensive holding to active preparation for counter-offensive maneuvers. The confirmation of UAF control in Northern Pokrovsk suggests a consolidated frontline within the urban center, providing a staging area for the reinforced units mentioned by the NSU Commander.
Southern Sector (Odesa): A priority engagement zone for the next 1-3 hours. RF is attempting to exploit the southern AD umbrella while simultaneously conducting EOD/mining operations on the Dnipro's left bank (Dnepr Group of Forces).
Rostov/Logistics: The "Kiziterinka incident" is now assessed as a major logistical bottleneck. A delay of 20+ trains indicates a total blockage of the main rail artery feeding the Vostok and Southern Groups of Forces.
Kyiv Strategic Rear: The emergency power/heating outage has surpassed the 24-hour mark. With scheduled rotations canceled, the risk of "wet" heating systems freezing and sustaining permanent structural damage is CRITICAL.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: The spike in activity in the East (0718Z) likely correlates with the "fixing" operations mentioned in the previous report, designed to prevent UAF reserves from reaching the Pokrovsk or Huliaipole sectors.
Dnipro Left Bank: RF EOD units from the Ivanovo VDV are actively clearing UAF-laid remote mining (FPV-delivered), indicating RF is attempting to regain mobility along the riverbank roads for potential localized raids.
Retaliatory Rhetoric: FM Lavrov’s "crushing response" threats (0723Z) align with a standardized RF escalation cycle following the UAF saturation strikes on Moscow and the upcoming high-level US-Ukraine meeting.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Reserve Management: The movement of units into the Pokrovsk sector indicates a decision by the High Command to prioritize the defense and potential recapture of lost positions in the Donetsk region over other secondary axes.
Air Defense: Mobile fire groups and point-defense assets in Odesa are currently heavily engaged.
Morale Maintenance: The 80th Air Assault Brigade continues effective information operations to maintain domestic cohesion through human-interest testimonials during high-stress periods.
Information environment / disinformation
"Kaganate" Narrative: Fringe pro-RF channels (Alex Parker Returns) are propagating explicit antisemitic and conspiratorial content to radicalize the information space. This remains a low-impact but persistent hybrid threat. (0717Z, LOW).
EU Cohesion: RF state media is amplifying narratives of "EU disagreements" (Kotsnews) to undermine the impact of recent EU pledges for 2026. (0731Z, MEDIUM).
Infrastructure Exploitation: RF channels are actively weaponizing the Kyiv power crisis to induce "learned helplessness" among the civilian population. (0732Z, HIGH).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue the UAV assault on Odesa to deplete local AD stocks before a potential follow-on missile strike. UAF will finalize the positioning of counter-assault groups in Pokrovsk.
MDCOA: A failure of the Kyiv heating grid leads to a humanitarian emergency, forcing the diversion of military engineering and logistical assets to support civil evacuation.
Diplomatic Pivot: The Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (20:00Z) will likely be preceded by an RF attempt to create a "fact on the ground" (e.g., claiming Huliaipole or Kupyansk capture) to weaken Ukraine's negotiating position.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pokrovsk Counter-Assault Composition: Identify the specific brigades being moved to the Pokrovsk sector to determine the scale of the planned counter-attack.
Huliaipole FEBA: Still UNCONFIRMED (LOW confidence). Require visual proof of RF presence in the city center.
Odesa Damage Assessment: Monitor for impact on port infrastructure or grain storage during the current UAV wave.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasing as both sides prepare for end-of-year positioning. Weather in the Moscow region is dropping to -15°C, while Ukraine faces similar sub-zero conditions, turning the Energy/Heating Grid into a primary battlefield.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Logistics: The Rostov rail blockage is the most significant tactical friction point for RF in the last 48 hours. If the derailment involves specialized equipment or heavy damage, the Southern Group's artillery intensity will decrease within 72 hours.
C2/Intent: Lavrov's comments suggest RF is bracing for increased Western support in 2026 and is attempting to set a "red line" narrative before the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: Transitioning from "Flexible Defense" to "Active Stabilization" in the Pokrovsk sector. The arrival of the 7th Air Assault Corps assets indicates the deployment of high-readiness strategic reserves.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Narratives: RF is pivoting from "military victory" claims to "Western betrayal" and "Ukrainian collapse" narratives to exploit the energy crisis.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: 0730Z-1100Z: High kinetic activity in Odesa. 2000Z: Diplomatic focus (Zelenskyy/Trump).
Logistics: Expect RF to prioritize the repair of the Kiziterinka rail line; any subsequent sabotage or strikes on the repair crews would exponentially increase the disruption.
