KYIV ENERGY CRISIS: Extreme emergency power outages have persisted for over 24 hours in the capital; energy operators report no estimated time for restoration. (0644Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
OVERNIGHT AIR DEFENSE SUMMARY: UAF Air Force confirms 48 "Shahed" type UAVs launched; 30 were intercepted or suppressed by EW. (0645Z, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, HIGH).
MOSCOW AVIATION DISRUPTION: Over 270 flights were delayed at Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo airports due to "Carpet" plan restrictions, which were only lifted near midnight. (0645Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE: RF paratrooper elements (7th Guards VDV) are conducting offensive operations in the Huliaipole sector; pro-RF sources claim a "major victory" and city capture. (0700Z, Воин DV / Дневник Десантника, LOW - Unconfirmed).
RAIL DISRUPTION (RF REAR): A freight train derailment is reported at Kiziterinka station in Rostov Oblast, a key logistical hub for the Southern Group of Forces. (0704Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM).
POKROVSK INTENSITY: 32 of the 160 total combat engagements nationwide in the last 24 hours occurred in the Pokrovsk direction. (0643Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
SUMY BORDER ACTIVITY: RF has initiated KAB (guided bomb) strikes and localized ground probes near Yablonovka and Alekseevka. (0704Z, Повітряні Сили / Архангел Спецназа, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad Sector: Remains the enemy's primary effort (Main Effort). The high concentration of engagements (20% of total frontline activity) indicates sustained high-intensity urban and trench warfare.
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole) Sector: Significant escalation. The deployment of the 7th Guards VDV Division indicates a shift from defensive posturing to active offensive operations. If RF claims of "liberation" are accurate, the UAF defensive line in the east of Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been breached.
Sumy/Northern Border: Increased kinetic activity. RF is using KABs to soften defenses near Yablonovka, potentially preparing for a shallow cross-border incursion or to fix UAF forces away from Kupyansk.
Kyiv Strategic Rear: The "Naftogaz" targeting vector identified in the previous 24h report has successfully induced a severe power deficit. The 24-hour duration of emergency outages suggests structural damage to distribution nodes rather than temporary grid instability.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
VDV Deployment: The 7th Guards Air Assault Division is being used as a shock force in Zaporizhzhia, suggesting RF is seeking a high-visibility victory to coincide with end-of-year reporting.
Hybrid/C2 Tactics: RF claims of detaining GUR agents in "DNR" (0650Z) and Lavrov’s threats against European contingents (0645Z) indicate an intensified information operation to deter Western intervention and justify internal security crackdowns.
Logistical Vulnerability: The Rostov rail derailment (0704Z) represents a critical friction point. Whether caused by sabotage or infrastructure fatigue, it disrupts the primary GLOC (Ground Line of Communication) supporting the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully repelled a mechanized assault in snowy conditions (0658Z), demonstrating continued tactical proficiency despite adverse weather and personnel fatigue.
Air Defense: A 62.5% interception rate (30/48) against a saturation drone attack indicates effective point defense, though the remaining 18 drones and potential missile/KAB strikes continue to degrade infrastructure.
National Cohesion: Synchronized 09:00 "Minute of Silence" messaging across all state and military channels (0658Z-0700Z) indicates a high degree of internal communicative discipline and focus on morale maintenance.
Information environment / disinformation
"Huliaipole Capture": Pro-RF channels are pushing a narrative of "total liberation." This is currently UNCONFIRMED by geolocated footage or UAF statements and should be treated as a potential psychological operation until verified.
Economic Warfare: Pro-RF sources are amplifying claims of food insecurity (10% "starving") in Ukraine (0701Z) to erode domestic morale and international support.
Logistics Framing: Rybar is framing the Croatia-Germany-Ukraine tank transfer (0703Z) as a "loyalty payment," attempting to portray Western aid as transactional and coerced rather than strategic.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify KAB strikes in the Sumy and Kupyansk sectors to exploit the perceived fixing of UAF reserves.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF forces in Huliaipole achieve a clean breakthrough, allowing mobile VDV elements to threaten the rear of the Zaporizhzhia defensive line or push toward the Donetsk Oblast border.
Energy Sector: Continued emergency outages in Kyiv will likely lead to localized heating failures if temperatures remain sub-zero.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole Status: Immediate requirement for geolocated imagery (IMINT) or SIGINT to confirm the FEBA (Forward Edge of Battle Area) in Huliaipole.
Rostov Rail Damage: Assess the duration of the rail blockage in Kiziterinka to estimate the delay in RF ammunition resupply to the Vostok Group.
Sumy Border Strength: Monitor for the movement of RF mechanized units toward the Yablonovka-Alekseevka axis to determine if KAB strikes are a precursor to a larger assault.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently impacted by winter weather conditions (snowy fields reported in the 110th Bde sector), which favors stationary defense but complicates mechanized maneuver. The strategic focus remains on the Ukrainian energy grid, which is currently at a tipping point in the capital.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RF maintains the ability to launch nightly 40+ drone waves while simultaneously conducting high-intensity ground assaults in Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
Tactical Adaptation: Use of small-unit mechanized "meat assaults" (3 vehicles at a time) continues, aiming to exhaust UAF ATGM and drone stocks through attrition.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF is in a "flexible defense" mode, willing to trade space for time in some sectors (possibly Huliaipole) while holding "no-fail" zones in Pokrovsk and Kupyansk.
Constraints: The persistent power outages in Kyiv may begin to impact command and control (C2) nodes if backup generator fuel supplies are not maintained.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Control: RF is attempting to dominate the end-of-year narrative with claims of "major victories" (Huliaipole) to offset the embarrassment of aviation disruptions in Moscow.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: The next 12 hours will likely see an increase in air activity over Odesa (ref. 0657Z) and Sumy.
Strategic Pivot: The derailment in Rostov (0704Z) may create a 24-48 hour window of reduced RF artillery intensity in the Southern sector as supply trains are rerouted.
