KYIV RECOVERY COMPLETED: State Emergency Service (DSNS) reports all rescue and recovery operations finalized at sites targeted in yesterday's strikes. (0621Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
KUPYANSK REINFORCEMENTS: RF sources report UAF is deploying elite National Guard and GUR (Military Intelligence) reserves to the Kupyansk sector to stabilize the front. (0632Z, Дневник Десантника, LOW - Unconfirmed).
DRONE OPERATIONS: Pro-RF channels claim 25 UAF UAVs were intercepted overnight across various regions. (0627Z, Colonelcassad, LOW - Unconfirmed).
DEEPSTATE MAP UPDATE: Significant frontline adjustments processed; likely reflecting the contested status in Mirnohrad and Kupyansk. (0617Z, DeepState, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL RF INCIDENT: A school shooting in Tuva is being reported by state media, potentially serving as a domestic distraction or indicating internal security friction. (0609Z, ТАСС, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk Sector: The situation has transitioned from a potential RF breakthrough to a high-intensity attrition battle. If reports of GUR and National Guard deployments are accurate, the UAF is prioritizing the Kupyansk-Oskil line as a "no-fail" zone. This directly contradicts earlier RF claims of total city capture (ref. 1005Z 27 DEC).
Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad Sector: The DeepState map update (0617Z) suggests shifting control lines. In conjunction with the previous report of RF "holiday" propaganda in the city, the sector remains the most volatile urban combat zone in the Donbas.
Kyiv/Strategic Rear: Kinetic activity has paused in the capital as DSNS completes cleanup (0621Z). Focus shifts to infrastructure assessment following the "Naftogaz" targeting vector identified in the 24h daily report.
Moscow/RF Strategic Rear: UAF continues to maintain pressure on RF Air Defense (AD) networks. The claim of 25 drones destroyed (0627Z) suggests a sustained saturation effort following the aviation "Carpet" plan disruption noted at 0604Z.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RF forces are attempting to fix UAF reserves in Kupyansk while maintaining the primary offensive weight toward Pokrovsk. The reporting of "elite UAF units" by RF sources (0632Z) is likely an attempt to justify slower-than-expected progress or high RF casualties in the sector.
Internal Security (RF): The Tuva incident (0609Z) represents a localized security failure within the RF. While likely non-military, such events can temporarily divert Rosgvardia or local police resources.
Information Operations: RF state media is pivoting to lifestyle content (New Year recommendations, 0626Z) to project a sense of "normalcy" despite ongoing aviation disruptions and border region drone strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Stabilization: The commitment of GUR and NGU reserves to Kupyansk indicates a deliberate decision by the General Staff to blunt the Vostok Group's momentum in the north.
Civilian Resilience: Rapid completion of recovery works in Kyiv (0621Z) is critical for maintaining public morale and restoring functional capacity to the capital's logistics and command nodes.
Information environment / disinformation
Somaliland Recognition: The report of Israel recognizing Somaliland (0633Z) is a major geopolitical outlier. While not directly related to the theater, it is being amplified by ASTRA and may be used in the information space to draw parallels with separatist movements or divert attention from the Florida Summit.
Counter-Narrative: Pro-UA volunteer networks (Sternenko, 0607Z) remain focused on fundraising, indicating a continued reliance on "bottom-up" logistics for tactical drone capabilities.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue high-intensity "meat assaults" in Mirnohrad and Kupyansk to secure territorial gains before the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting (1800Z-2100Z).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF may attempt a breakout in the Siversk sector, exploiting the recent command relief (ref. 1336Z 27 DEC) before the reported UAF reserves can be redirected from Kupyansk.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kupyansk Reserve Identification: Confirm presence and specific units of NGU/GUR in Kupyansk to assess UAF's remaining operational reserve depth.
DeepState Update Specifics: Detailed analysis of the 0617Z map update to identify specific settlement losses/gains in the Mirnohrad and Siversk axes.
RF AD Readiness: Monitor for secondary "Carpet" plans at Moscow airports to determine if UAF drone strikes have achieved persistent degradation of the capital's AD umbrella.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is characterized by competing stabilization efforts. UAF is rushing elite units to the North (Kupyansk), while RF is attempting to lock in gains in the Center (Mirnohrad). The completion of recovery in Kyiv suggests a temporary window where civilian infrastructure is stabilized, though the threat to the gas/heating grid remains extreme.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intent: RF seeks to maximize pressure on the UAF General Staff, forcing them to choose between holding Kupyansk or reinforcing the Mirnohrad-Pokrovsk line.
Logistics: High SAR scores at ammunition bases (ref. Daily Report) suggest RF has the munitions to sustain this dual-axis pressure for the next 72-96 hours.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Readiness: The use of GUR and NGU units as "firefighters" in Kupyansk suggests high confidence in these units' ability to stabilize lines but also highlights the exhaustion of standard territorial and mechanized units in that sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic IO: The shift in Russian state media toward New Year's "lifestyle" content (0626Z) is a classic "anesthesia" tactic to mask the impact of UAF drone strikes on Moscow and civilian flight schedules.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: The next 6 hours (0600Z-1200Z) are critical for UAF reserve integration. If Kupyansk is not stabilized by noon, RF may achieve a breakthrough toward the Oskil river crossings.
Decision Point: The Zelenskyy-Trump summit remains the primary strategic pivot. Tactical shifts in the next 12 hours will be leveraged by both sides as "diplomatic currency."
