ZELENSKYY-TRUMP SUMMIT RESCHEDULED: Meeting in Florida moved forward to 13:00 local (21:00 Kyiv/MSK) today. (0600Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
MOSCOW AVIATION DISRUPTION: "Carpet" plan at Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo resulted in >270 delays and 42 cancellations following UAF drone activity. (0604Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
MIRNOHRAD CONTESTED: Russian sources released footage of personnel in Mirnohrad; UAF General Staff officially denies the full capture of the city. (0550Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
POW EXPLOITATION: RF Ministry of Defense-affiliated channels are circulating forced confession videos of captured UAF personnel to undermine mobilization efforts. (0603Z, Colonelcassad, LOW - Propaganda).
US LEGISLATIVE FRICTION: Reports of US Congressional moves to block the naming of federal assets after Donald Trump are being amplified by Ukrainian and Russian media to highlight US domestic polarization. (0546Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad Sector: The situation in Mirnohrad has transitioned to a high-intensity urban contest. RF forces are employing symbolic propaganda (personnel in holiday costumes) to claim territorial control. This indicates RF units have likely penetrated the outskirts or specific districts, though the UAF General Staff maintains that the city has not fallen.
Moscow/Strategic Rear: UAF asymmetric strikes have successfully induced a "systemic friction" event in the RF capital. The disruption of 300+ flights at primary international hubs demonstrates the UAF's ability to bypass layered AD and impose economic and logistical costs on the RF civilian-military transition points.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Baseline high-intensity fire (700+ strikes) continues as reported at 0535Z. No new tactical shifts in the last 30 minutes, but the front remains critical following the Huliaipole retrograde.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action (Donetsk): RF is prioritizing the seizure of Mirnohrad to secure a year-end "victory" narrative. The use of staged video content (soldiers as Ded Moroz) suggests an emphasis on Information Operations (IO) to compensate for slow, high-attrition urban gains.
Psychological Operations: The release of the Emil Farvard POW video (0603Z) is a targeted attempt to exacerbate internal Ukrainian debates regarding mobilization. This aligns with the DS belief (0.125) regarding psychological operations targeting UAF personnel.
Diplomatic Posturing: FM Lavrov’s interviews (0547Z) continue to project RF intransigence while monitoring the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, likely waiting for outcomes to calibrate their next escalation or "peace" proposal.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy’s arrival in the US and the rescheduling of the meeting with Trump represent a critical effort to secure long-term military aid stability.
Defensive Resilience: UAF units in the Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad sector are conducting high-stakes urban defense. The denial of full capture suggests that while the perimeter may be compromised, organized resistance continues within the urban center.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Fallen City" Narrative: RF channels are attempting to present the fall of Mirnohrad as a fait accompli. Analysts should treat "holiday" themed RF videos as evidence of presence, not control.
US Political Friction: RF state media (TASS) and some Ukrainian channels are focusing on US legislative infighting regarding Trump. This serves the RF narrative that the US is too distracted by internal politics to maintain consistent support for Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify ground assaults in Mirnohrad to provide "visual confirmation" of capture before the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting concludes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Capitalizing on the aviation disruption in Moscow, RF may launch a retaliatory missile strike against Kyiv or Western Ukrainian logistics hubs to re-establish a "dominance" narrative.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Mirnohrad FEBA: Need geolocated footage to determine the exact extent of RF penetration into Mirnohrad. Is the city center still under UAF control?
Moscow AD Performance: Assessment of which specific AD assets were triggered by the "Carpet" plan to identify potential "blind spots" in the Moscow AD ring for future strikes.
Siversk Command Status: Follow-up on the stability of the 54th and 10th Brigades following commander reliefs (from 27 DEC report).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly driven by the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting timeline. RF forces are attempting to create "facts on the ground" in Mirnohrad and Zaporizhzhia to weaken the Ukrainian negotiating position, while UAF is using deep strikes to demonstrate ongoing RF vulnerability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Adaptation: RF is shifting from pure kinetic force to a mix of kinetic and symbolic/holiday-themed IO to influence both the Ukrainian home front and Western political observers.
C2: Centralized control of the "POW narrative" remains high, with the MoD coordinating the release of interrogation videos to coincide with high-level diplomatic meetings.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Focus: The UAF's primary objective is holding the Mirnohrad-Pokrovsk line to prevent a collapse of the Donetsk defensive arc before the winter peak.
Constraint: The dependence on the outcome of the Florida summit creates a period of high strategic sensitivity where any tactical loss is magnified in the information space.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Belief Analysis: DS Belief (0.416) regarding Trump bilateral talks is the dominant strategic factor. RF Propaganda Effort (0.181) is currently focused on tactical gains in Mirnohrad.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: The window between 1800Z and 2100Z today (during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting) is the highest risk period for a significant RF kinetic escalation intended to "overshadow" the diplomatic news cycle.
