AERIAL THREAT - ODESA (HIGH): Ukrainian Air Force reports loitering munitions (Shahed/Geran-type) launched from the Black Sea, currently on a vector toward Odesa (0221Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
RF STRIKE ON UNMANNED ASSETS (MEDIUM): Russian MoD claims the "Vostok" Group destroyed 4 Ukrainian ground robots (UGVs) and 3 UAV control points near Huliaipole. Combat footage was released to support this claim (0223Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
CONTINUED KAB ACTIVITY (HIGH): Previous reports of KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches in the Donetsk region remain the primary kinetic driver for ground operations (Baseline, HIGH).
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has expanded from the Donetsk interior to the southern maritime and Zaporizhzhia axes. The battlefield geometry is now characterized by a multi-vector aerial assault: KABs in the East and loitering munitions (UAVs) in the South. Weather over the Black Sea is permitting transit of low-altitude UAVs, while ground conditions in Huliaipole support the use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) by UAF, which are now being specifically targeted by RF "Vostok" elements.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities/Intentions: RF is demonstrating a coordinated effort to "blind" UAF tactical units. By targeting UAV control points and ground robots in Huliaipole (0223Z), the RF is attempting to degrade UAF’s asymmetric advantages in reconnaissance and remote-delivery mining/strike.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of the Black Sea as a launch corridor for UAVs targeting Odesa (0221Z) suggests a pivot to strike port infrastructure or maritime logistics, potentially to coincide with the ongoing energy infrastructure campaign (Naftogaz targeting) mentioned in the 24h summary.
Logistics/Sustainment: The previously noted spike in activity at the 183rd Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (Daily Report) suggests RF is bracing for UAF's retaliatory drone saturation while maintaining offensive sortie rates.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF Air Defense (AD) in the Odesa region is on high alert. The reported loss of UGVs in Huliaipole, if confirmed, indicates a successful RF identification of UAF "sensor-to-shooter" nodes.
Technical Status: The deployment of ground robots (UGVs) in Huliaipole confirms UAF is utilizing automated systems to hold the line following the loss of volunteer commander "White Rex" and subsequent morale concerns in that sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda: RF (via TASS) is aggressively pushing video evidence of tactical successes (0223Z) to counter the narrative of UAF's successful drone strikes on Moscow.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Analytical beliefs (0.179) support the likelihood of RF drone strikes on ground robots in Huliaipole. There is also a notable belief (0.214) in a heightened RF propaganda effort, suggesting that while the strikes occurred, the scale may be exaggerated for domestic consumption.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF loitering munitions will strike Odesa's port or energy distribution nodes within the next 2 hours. Simultaneously, RF "Vostok" elements will attempt a localized push in the Huliaipole sector, capitalizing on the destruction of UAF UAV/UGV oversight assets.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "pincer" strike where KAB launches in Donetsk draw AD attention away from the Odesa UAV vector, followed by a secondary wave of Kalibr missiles from Black Sea platforms targeting the T0513 GLOC in the Siversk sector.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The tactical situation is volatile in the Southern Axis. UAF must prioritize the survivability of drone operators and UGV controllers in the Huliaipole-Zaporizhzhia sector. In Odesa, the 0300Z-0500Z window is the primary threat period for loitering munition impact.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDP/BDA for Odesa: Immediate reporting required on the specific targets of the UAVs launched from the Black Sea.
UGV Attrition: Confirm the number of operational UGVs remaining in the Huliaipole sector to determine if defensive lines can be held without manned intervention.
Siversk C2: Monitor the stability of the 54th and 10th Brigades following the relief of their commanders; assess if RF is moving mechanized reserves toward the T0513 GLOC.
